Written evidence submitted by Durham Energy Institute (CGE0065)

Durham Energy Institute forms part of Durham University. We nurture research on a wide-range of energy technologies including renewables generation (wind, solar, hydro, bio) and integration, smart grids, power systems and transmission networks, geo-energy, bio-fuels, and nuclear energy. Building on this expertise we emphasise a ‘Science and Society’ approach to energy which tackles the societal aspects of energy technology and explores the social, political and economic implications of technological developments.
( www.durham.ac.uk/dei/ )

We would be pleased to discuss issues raised in this response with the committee if that would further aid the inquiry.

Topic - the relative importance of the four main areas identified in the Strategy and, whether the Strategy places the right weight on each of those sectors to deliver emissions reductions;

1. We believe more emphasis needs to be placed on low-carbon heating options such as Geothermal energy for homes and businesses than is currently in the Clean Growth Strategy. Substantial progress has been made following government support for greener technologies on the electricity grid, however, less has been done to support the greening of the heat supply and our natural and waste heat resource are still underexplored and under utilised.

2. A greater emphasis also needs to be placed on higher efficiency electric motors in heavy industry. Over 45% of the global electricity energy demand is utilized by electric motors, therefore, improvements in electric motor efficiency represents a significant opportunity to reduce global energy demand and user operating costs, which is inherently complemented by reduced green-house-gas emissions. Improving the efficiency of industrial electric motors by 3% (the typical increase in efficiency of the proposed technology), yields the potential to save over 350TWh (>100 nuclear power plants) of annual electricity demand [Do-Hyun Kang, et al,. “Technological Feasibility Studies For Super And Ultra Premium Efficient Motors” A1 Study Committee Working Group Report, CIGRE, 2017].

Topic - progress on meeting carbon budget targets to date and areas where more progress is needed going forward;

3. The Committee on Climate Change states that although the UK has met its first carbon budget (2008-12) and is currently on track to outperform the second (2013-17) and third (2018-22) carbon budgets, it is not on track to meet the fourth (2023-27). This is not sufficiently acknowledged in the clean growth strategy.

4. Significant gains have been made by increasing the share of renewable electricity generation with over 40 per cent of our electricity coming from low carbon sources since 2016. 75% of UK emissions reductions have been achieved in the power sector.

5. However gas has significantly increased its share of electricity generation to replace coal (https://www.mygridgb.co.uk/historicaldata/ ) and it is also the major source of domestic heating. Gas is not sustainable or low-carbon.  This is especially true for imported LNG. The UK imports 60% of its gas supply and is highly vulnerable to supply restrictions in what is largely regional, European market. The UK’s reliance on gas and gas imports needs to be reduced significantly to address both reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and help ensure the UK’s energy security by switching to alternative, sustainable, low-carbon energy sources.

6. Electricity demand is also set to increase with high demands from data centres, electric vehicles and national plans to shift domestic gas heating to electricity.

7. Beyond electricity generation, emissions in transport, buildings and industry sectors have not fallen[1]. There is a UK plan to reduce emissions from vehicles but as yet no coherent plan exists that will dramatically cut emissions from buildings.

8. If progress is to be achieved going forward we need to:

• Decarbonise heat: Put significant efforts into using innovative ways of using waste heat; and our natural heat resources such as low and high temperature geothermal systems;
• Improving efficiencies of electric motors;
• Improving efficiencies of buildings through smart insulation, metering and demand management, retrofitting and zero  carbon new builds;
• Ensure the electricity we use is low carbon by continuing support for renewable generation, demand management and smart energy solutions so that local renewable generation can replace gas fired power plants;
• Plan infrastructure on a regional and national level for the roll-out of Electric Vehicles as uptake will not improve unless infrastructure capacity exists to support EV drivers; and
• Develop energy storage options (both thermal and electrical) to ensure we can meet daily and seasonal demand fluctuations for both heat and power and reduce our carbon emissions.

Topic - the extent to which current and future technologies can help to meet the carbon budgets;

9. As noted in the recent IPCC Climate Report (October 2018)[2] the world now has a broad range of appropriate energy technologies which have the capacity to provide effective solutions to the energy challenge however it is often the policy and economic frameworks that are the biggest barriers to implementation. An effective energy policy needs to acknowledge this and create an environment where new technologies can combine to form a whole energy system designed for the 21st Century and beyond.

10. Effective implemention of existing low-carbon technologies combined with future technologies will enable to us to meet, and go beyond, the UK carbon budgets. However there needs to be strong political will and effective, long-term reliable incentivisation structures in place to achieve this to provide investor confidence. This also needs to be implemented through a whole systems approach which puts equity issues and the trilemma of affordability, security and decarbonisation as its center (see paragraphs 16 to 18 below).

Topic - the uncertainty in future technologies’ contribution to emissions reductions, and how that uncertainty can best be incorporated into the Government’s carbon budgets.

11. There is much uncertainty surrounding all of the proposals in the Low Carbon Strategy document. Attempts at quantifying such uncertainty in energy policy is often rudimentary. However there is a well developed methodology for careful and meaningful uncertainty quantification for complex systems represented by a variety of contributing models and data projections. This existing expertise should be incorporated into the low carbon and industrial strategies.

12. This methodology is based around the twin principles of model emulation (to allow the full exploration of the consequences of complex plans evaluated by the use of large and slow running computer simulators of the real world system) and structural discrepancy analysis, which assesses the difference between model evaluations and real world outcomes of the systems that the models purport to represent.

13. This methodology should be applied to all future technology planning. Without such uncertainty quantification, it is impossible to judge whether the claimed benefits of any proposals are well founded or essentially just guesswork, and, further, it is impossible to compare the risk and reliability of competing approaches to achieving the stated objectives[3].

14. Professor Michael Goldstein’s team at Durham University is currently developing a series of large scale exemplars of such uncertainty quantification, for energy related problems, as part of our work in the Centre for Energy Systems Integration (CESI)[4] .

Topic - How the development and deployment of technology can best be supported, and the extent to which the Government should support specific technologies or pursue a ‘technology neutral’ approach;

15. [5]Decarbonisation is expected to result in a profound change of the whole energy system. Facilitating this change is not a question of selecting particular energy technologies or “picking winners”. This dynamic situation calls for a wider integrated approach to the whole systems perspective, which considers each social and technical component of the energy system in part and as a whole. For example enabling consumers to become “prosumers”, i.e. both consumption and production of energy through say photovoltaic solar panels, will require harnessing the opportunities of multiple systems at different scales. This includes innovative adoption of ICT and new business models, and also understanding whether consumers will be able to partake in such markets due to restrictions in their tenancy, for example. Issues of fairness and equity could become problematic, and likely highly political, unless these are addressed when enabling such changes to the energy system.

16. These issues of fairness and equity also arise in considering implications for the national grid (electricity and gas). At present the cost for the grid’s upkeep is spread over a large consumer base. If “decentralisation” proliferates then the consumer base to spread such costs becomes smaller and therefore each consumer will need to pay more. With the establishment of a separate entity from the National Grid – the Electricity System Operator (ESO) – and consideration of a new funding model[6] now is a good time to look at some of these different ways to meet costs that will both endure in future and be fair to all.

17. The whole systems perspective does not prevent the government supporting specific energy technologies, especially if they are less mature technologically or have fewer possibilities to access energy markets. In a fully committed technology neutral approach, the risk is that incumbent energy suppliers will always have advantage through established infrastructure and greater resources than innovative technologies. The decisions on being technology neutral or in support of certain technologies should be made on the basis of establishing an energy system that addresses the energy trilemma i.e. affordability, security and decarbonisation. The question is about finding a combination of technologies and wider system that will achieve these objectives. Supporting certain innovative energy technologies for a limited time, whether via economic incentives or in pilot projects, demonstrator sites, or experiments, can assist with these integration decisions.

18. While policy rhetoric is moving away from addressing the energy trilemma[7],[8] the overriding principles of the trilemma are inescapable. The energy trilemma should not be replaced by "digitisation" or "decentralisation" – a trend we have seen emerging recently in the energy sector. These so-called ‘ds’ should only be seen as mechanisms or direction of travel for addressing the trilemma objectives of affordability, security and decarbonisation (but not as the objectives themselves).

Topic -The relative priority that should be attached to developing new technologies compared to deploying existing technologies, including consideration of the costs and pollution involved in the decommissioning of technologies or infrastructure;

19. Energy technologies already exist that can help us to meet our climate change targets – policy needs to focus on distribution, scale and integration into existing systems of these technologies.

20. It is also important that funding continues for fundamental science to improve the efficiencies of existing and emerging technologies such as energy materials science which is looking to find cheaper, more readily available and more efficient materials for Solar PV, wind and energy storage.  

Topic -Examples of specific technologies whose development and deployment have been effectively supported so far, as well as those that show particular promise for meeting the Government’s carbon emissions targets or supporting the UK’s economy, or which would benefit from specific Government action, in the future;

21. Smart System– Virtual power plant (VPP) is a smart technology capable of aggregating the capacities of diverse distributed energy resources (DERs, e.g., solar panels) and flexible demands as a single operating profile, thus it looks similar to a large power plant that can be operated in the same way by power system operators. The key benefits of VPP are:

•                   Greener and more cost-effective: VPP is capable of involving more DERs into power networks and energy market trading, leading to less carbon emissions and more economic power supply;
•                   More reliable and sustainable: VPP can improve power system reliability and cost efficiencies through a balanced mix of renewable and nonrenewable sources.

22. The research activities of VPP have been effectively supported so far, for example, Durham has been involved in the following projects-

•                   UK EPSRC Project (EP/P005950/1) “Towards Joint Power-Communication System Modelling and Optimisation for Smart Grid Application: Virtual Power Plant (TOPMOST)”, led by Durham University, working with Sunamp and Intel ltd.
•                   Innovate UK Project (132934) “Electrical and thermal storage optimisation in a virtual power plant”, led by the University of Sussex, working with Durham University, Moixa, Sunamp and UK Power Networks Services.

23.           Our research outcomes [9],[10] show that VPP brings benefits in terms of:

•                   Reducing the power loss of transmission networks by 3.05%;
•                   Achieving up to 18.8% energy bill savings for energy consumers;
•                   Enhanced power system stability that enables more renewable energy sources integration to power networks.

24. Unfortunately there still exist gaps that require further investments and government support. Current VPP research activities are around Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) 3-5. Demonstrations and system tests are still needed to validate the real potentials. 

25. Carbon capture and Storage - The UK has a huge resource base for capturing and burying (deep beneath the North Sea) carbon dioxide rather than releasing into the atmosphere.  The technologies are well advanced, we just need to push ahead and implement it.  Lack of funding consistency has meant this technology has not progressed as much as expected.  The UK is playing catch up, despite OGCI deciding in early December to build a carbon-capture ready power station on Teesside.

26. Captured carbon dioxide can be stored safely and is already stored safely including stores beneath the Norwegian and Dutch portions of the North Sea.  The risk of a leak is a legitimate cause for concern but we have technology both to monitor the CO2 storage site and interventions should CO2 escape.  Moreover, escape of CO2 will be no more detrimental to the atmosphere than failing to capture it in the first place. 

27. The UK government, via DECC, sponsored a novel low cost carbon storage process led by Durham University and including Sheffield and Bath universities and NASA.  Muon tomography is now being commercialised for other purposes by this team after the CCS market collapse caused by the UK Chancellor in November 2015[11].  It could be re-configured to support the CCS industry.

28. Geothermal Energy - Geothermal energy could supply the UK’s heating for at least 100 years.  This would enable the UK to meet its carbon budget as well as massively improving energy security and reducing our dependence on imported gas.  Work done by BritGeothermal[12]  and led by Durham University has shown how this can be achieved.  Specifically the low-cost options that could be readily deployed over huge areas of the UK (40% of housing and office stock) would target low-temperature geothermal water in flooded coal mines as has been achieved at Heerlen in the Netherlands.  Work with social scientists has also demonstrated that residents of former mining areas would welcome the chance for the employment and inward investment that would accompany such a process.  Local councils and MPs in the North East are very supportive of the coal-mine initiative.  This would then lead the way to deeper more ambitious projects like the current United Downs project in Cornwall which may in future deliver electricity as well as heat. These are exciting opportunities which should be fully explored.

29. Energy storage technologies - Technology development has been advancing for various forms of energy storage. However, significant intervention at the state level and investment is needed to reach the scale of storage required to make our energy system truly resilient and low-carbon. Energy storage on a localised level will enable us to increase distributed electricity generation, reduce demand pressure at the national level, reduce fluctuations in supply and lessen our reliance on emergency energy imports and fossil fuels.

30. Interventions are required to support the development of a range of enhanced storage solutions to meet the range of energy storage needs (battery storage, hydrogen storage, compressed air storage, reservoir storage, salt storage, thermal storage); and to build the energy storage infrastructure required locally and nationally. It is heartening to see industry purchasing and operating private storage systems and this should be encouraged.  It is innovative energy storage that have the greatest potentials for transforming our energy system. This could be achieved through direct investment in R&D, subsidies or by indirect market mechanisms such as requiring energy suppliers to implement a certain level of storage and tax breaks for companies who introduce storage. However, it is essential, whichever policy interventions are chosen, that they are consistently applied over an extended period.

31. Solar PV Energy - The growth of deployed solar PV in the UK to 13 GW over the last eight years has been a strong start to developing PV as a major contributor to the UK’s electricity mix. Recent changes in the feed-in tariff scheme have seen rooftop solar deployment progress at a rate which is less than half the predicted levels. Solar PV in the UK is on the cusp of entering a tariff free regime. To ensure that this happens government needs to carefully consider the economic factors and design an incentive scheme guaranteed over a sufficiently long time frame to ensure that continuity, consistency and clarity releases private investment in solar and other low carbon energy technologies. If this happens solar PV will be a significant success story for the UK.

Topic -The role of the Industrial Strategy ‘Clean Growth Grand Challenge’, and what the Government should do to ensure it contributes effectively to meeting emissions targets.

32. The growth of the UK as a nation since the industrial revolution has been on the basis of exploiting fossil fuels, first coal and then petroleum. Supply has been plentiful and usage understandably profligate.  Recognition that use of fossil fuels has resulted in the emission of large quantities of greenhouse gases has driven the desire to deliver clean growth for the nation.  At the moment, there is still the expectation that energy demand will be met by energy supply as it must, but the perception for energy demand is based upon doing ‘what we have always done’.  We have swapped dirty coal-generated electricity for cleaner gas-generated electricity and cleaner still wind and PV generated electricity, but we are still using electricity with profligacy. 

33. Much of the aspiration of clean growth needs to be predicated on doing more with less (energy).  For example as a nation we burn gas and coal to produce electricity to transmit to peoples’ homes where much of that electricity is made to heat homes.  This is an inherently inefficient process.  Five percent of energy is lost in transmission of electricity and power stations are 33-50% efficient meaning that at least half of the intrinsic energy from the coal, gas or even harvested wind is lost between generation and usage. 

34. High grade waste heat from industry could be used for a wealth of industrial, domestic and agricultural processes each of which has progressively lower temperature demand (cascade of uses).  This will result in substantial energy saving and emissions reduction. We build data centres that need cooling only to reject the heat to the air instead of reusing it.  House and building insulation is poor by the standard of many northern nations.  Much of the inevitable growth in energy demand for a growing (clean) economy could be offset by better use of energy and this means managing heat as well as managing other vectors such as electricity, gas, oil and coal.

35. Thus decarbonising heat and making best use of heat are the big wins to be had that support both clean grown and emissions reduction. If we instead use local heat sources (waste, ground, geothermal), we would only need to generate and ship one third of the electricity.    . 

December 2018

Contributors

Professor Jon Gluyas – Durham Energy Institute (DEI) Executive Director

Professor Michael Goldstein - Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University

Professor Simone Abram – DEI co-Director, Anthropology, Durham University

Dr Douglas Halliday – DEI co-Director, Physics, Durham University

Dr Hongjian Sun – DEI Mid-Career Fellow & Smart Grids Lead at

Department of Engineering, Durham University

Dr Antti Silvast - DEI Early Career Fellow at Department of Anthropology, Durham University

Claire Copeland - Research Fellow in Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex

Dr Charlotte Adams, DEI Mid-Career Fellow at Department of Earth Sciences

Dr Chris Donaghy- Spargo – DEI Early Career Fellow at Department of Engineering, Durham University

Evelyn Tehrani – DEI Research Information and Policy Impact Officer, Durham University

Jacki Bell - DEI Research Information and Impact Officer, Durham University