Written evidence submitted by Nuclear Industry Association (CGE0018)

1. The Nuclear Industry Association (NIA) welcomes this opportunity to respond to the Committee’s inquiry into the technologies required to meet the Clean Growth emissions reduction targets.

2. The NIA is the trade association and representative body for the civil nuclear industry in the UK. We represent around 260 companies operating in all aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle, including the current and prospective operators of the nuclear power stations, the international designers and vendors of nuclear power stations, and those engaged in decommissioning, waste management and nuclear liabilities management. Members also include nuclear equipment suppliers, engineering and construction firms, nuclear research organisations, and legal, financial and consultancy companies.

Overview

3. The NIA believes a mix of different technologies will be required to meet our Clean Growth emissions reduction targets, including both nuclear and renewables.

4. The recent Special Report[1] from the IPCC on the impacts of global warming of 1.5%C above pre-industrial levels highlighted the need for the world to decarbonise very quickly if severe impacts from global warming are to be avoided. The electrification of heat and surface transport would make a major contribution to achieving this, but only if it is underpinned by the early decarbonisation of electricity generation.

Meeting the Clean Growth targets

5. The aim of meeting the Government’s Clean Growth targets should mostly be based on pragmatic decisions grounded on technologies which are proven and available now, given the urgency of the situation. Any technology that is not yet viable, should not be a mainstay of reaching clean growth and emission reduction targets.

6. New technologies that could potentially make a contribution in the future should continue to be developed, but it should not be simply assumed these will be ready or have reached maturity in time to keep global temperature from increasing beyond the 1.5°C target. Publicly funded R&D should be targeted on meeting the clean growth agenda, and should therefore include nuclear as a key component.

7. It is ultimately a decision for Government whether to pursue a ‘technology neutral’ approach, however this should be weighed against the pressing need to decarbonise and the need to deliver a balanced, stable and reliable generation mix at reasonable cost (including the cost of back-up generation, storage and grid infrastructure). Deciding which technologies will be immediately required to meet our targets will provide the energy sector with certainty and boost investment.

8. Of the four main areas of the Clean Growth Strategy, we believe the most emphasis needs to be put on delivering clean power. Improving the carbon profile of homes and decarbonising transport are very important but will have little impact if the energy fuelling them comes from burning fossil fuels.

The role of nuclear power in delivering Clean, Smart, Flexible Power

9. Current forecasts predict that the UK will miss the next two carbon budget targets. While renewable capacity is increasing, our recent emissions have not decreased. Due to increases in gas prices the UK has in recent months become more reliant on coal and in September 2018 the UK consumed more coal than it did during the same month in 2016 and 2017.

10. If we are to be successful in delivering clean power to the grid we cannot rely on renewables alone. A nuclear component is also required. Nuclear generation provides reliable power, unaffected by intermittency, bringing significant benefits to the energy system including maintaining grid stability and stabilising problems arising from increasing amounts of smaller and decentralised technologies.

11. As we move to completely decarbonise our electricity generation the optimal mix of technologies required to meet demand should include a substantial contribution from nuclear power. To exclude nuclear would result in significant higher system costs and increase our dependence on interconnectors and as yet unproven technologies. A recently published report[2] by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology shows that if nuclear were excluded in the UK, the total system costs of decarbonisation would be over twice what it would be if nuclear were part of the mix.

12. It is also important when considering the cost of different technologies, future scenarios are assessed on a whole system basis. This includes transmission and balancing, as well as accounting for reliability and consistency of supply. On this basis our nuclear plants are competitive.

13. Against this backdrop, it is vital as our current fleet of nuclear power plants reach retirement, that this infrastructure is replaced by new nuclear plants, forming an integral part of reliable and secure, low carbon mix fit for the future. Government has proposed there should be a long term pipeline for nuclear projects and we look forward to working with them through the Nuclear Sector Deal to deliver this, maximising the economic benefits for the UK and industry by strengthening the UK supply chain and leveraging innovation.

The role of nuclear power in decarbonising transport

14. As surface transport moves away from petrol and diesel to electric vehicles there will be a requirement for much greater electricity generation.

15. The precise impacts will depend on a number of variables including consumer behaviour and the way in which charging infrastructure is rolled out. For example, those who have houses with driveways or garages are likely to charge their cars overnight, however it is not known how those who live in apartments or only have access to on-street parking will charge theirs, possibly when they’re at work, or at fast-charging stations en route. There are also plans to develop a Vehicle to Grid (V2G) system, using batteries from EVs to balance the network.

16. The National Grid Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 2018 report[3] says that up to 36 million electric vehicles could be on UK roads by 2040, twice as many as predicted in 2017. They state that even with innovations in smart technology, battery storage and vehicle-to-grid systems, 8GW of extra capacity would be needed to meet peak demand.

17. Nuclear would also have an important role in the decarbonisation of transport through other (non-electrification) means, for example as a potential source of hydrogen for transport (fuel cells) either through electrolysis or from high temperature reactors.

The uncertainty in future technologies’ contribution to emissions reductions

18. As previously stated, the NIA believes it would be unwise to rely solely on potential future technologies to reduce emissions. Whilst these should continue to be developed and explored for future use, there is no guarantee they will come to fruition.

19. For instance, whilst some claim the costs of battery technology will fall to a fraction of current levels and will therefore be able to balance the network when intermittent wind and solar are not generating, this is by no means certain. For reference, at today’s prices the cost of enough battery storage to meet one hour of UK electricity demand would be in the region of £18bn.

20. There are also concerns around the scalability of battery storage. Currently the biggest battery in the UK is 50MW. To provide larger amounts of storage capacity requires more space and higher costs, and thus could in turn increase the cost of electricity prices.

21. There are also battery waste issues from raw material extraction and battery disposal at the end of life, as well as the degradation of performance and reliability over the product lifetime.

22. Therefore, whilst it is important that new technologies are explored and invested in, until they can prove they are effective contributors to reducing carbon emissions, they should not be factored into achieving carbon budget emissions targets. The need and urgency to decarbonise is too great to rely on hypothetical technological suggestions of reaching operational efficiency and maturity.

23. Within the nuclear sector there are a number of potential future technologies that could contribute to electricity generation. These include small and advanced modular reactors, which could potentially deploy highly flexible, clean power or heat to industrial sites in areas without the need or space for a large-scale development such as current EPR/ABWR projects.

24. In this context the Government’s Expert Finance Working Group on Small Reactors concluded the UK was well placed to develop First of a Kind (FOAK) reactor projects, and to attract private finance, provided the Government helped de-risk projects by creating the right market framework. The NIA would like to see this taken forward as soon as possible.

October 2018