FSP0008

Written evidence submitted by West Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner, Mark Burns-Williamson

Introduction

As West Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner, I welcome the opportunity to contribute to the Inquiry into the financial sustainability of police forces.  West Yorkshire was one of eight police areas that the National Audit Office visited to inform their report on financial sustainability and I took the time to also share my views with the review team.

The key areas that I seek to provide evidence for the review within this document are:

• Impact of reduced funding since 2010
• Increasing demand pressures
• Financial challenges for the short to medium term
• Funding Formula

Impact of Funding Reductions Since 2010

Since the beginning of austerity in 2010 West Yorkshire Police Authority and subsequently West Yorkshire PCC has seen funding reduce by more than 35%, but at the same time policing demand has significantly increased.

At the same time, funding for partners has also significantly reduced and they too have had to make difficult decisions around their allocation of resources. This has seen a reduction in preventative and diversionary initiatives which threatens the ability of policing and community safety to prevent crime and intervene early to both reduce demand and improve long term outcomes for communities. 

Demand Pressures

Demand pressures that are evidenced in West Yorkshire are:

• Calls for Service – Overall calls for service have been on an increasing trend for some time, with the proportion of 999 calls increasing and now accounting for around 28% of all contacts.  In addition to increasing volume, demand is increasing most significantly around vulnerability, which account for one in five incidents and are more costly and complex to deal with.  Total calls are predicted to increase by 10.7% with the biggest increases in 999 calls (20.2% increase) and online.  999 call demand is currently at unprecedented levels and whilst West Yorkshire Police has prioritised 999, less focus on 101 (due to demand pressures) has had the unintended consequence of increasing demand pressures on 999.  

• Threat to Neighbourhood Policing – The increase in 999 calls has implications for emergency attendance, which is predicted to increase by a further 6,679 incidents.  The significant demand pressures threaten the Neighbourhood Policing and preventative model as protecting neighbourhood officers from abstractions may not be feasible within the context of increased demand.  However, unless we invest more significantly in prevention, problem solving and early intervention we will struggle to reduce demand long term and will always be a reactive service.  The Early Intervention Foundation have found that almost £17bn is spent each year by local and national agencies on acute and statutory services for children, young people and families.  An investment in early intervention can only improve outcomes and reduce demand, but can also deliver cost benefits.

• Total crime predictions and investigative demand – crime has been on an increasing trend for the last few years and of the 13.4% increase in recorded crime since April 2018, around half reflects increased risk to victims.  The risk areas have been consistent for the last two years and are mainly violent crime, possession of weapons, sexual offences and lower level public order.   Total crime is predicted to increase to almost 310,000 in 2021, an additional 50,000 crimes for our Force Crime Management Unit to assess, which presents capacity issues. Cyber-enabled crimes and fraud are also predicted to increase and along with safeguarding these take much longer to investigate, require broader skillsets and therefore present even more capacity/capability challenges. 

• Vulnerability Demand – has significantly increased over the last five years, now accounts for around one in five incidents and is predicted to further increase.  There are particular concerns around the predicted increase in Domestic Abuse (45% increase to 2021 to over 84,000 incidents). The increasing prevalence and incidents of mental health (43% of arrestees with a mental health flag) present concerns within the context of lack of service provision.   New safeguarding threats are also emerging including adult safeguarding, which is likely to further increase given the aging population, the potential for new ‘non recent’ types of CSEA and new forms of child and vulnerable adult exploitation associated with county lines.  As budget reductions have significantly impacted on partners in Child and Adult Social Care, there is the continuing risk that West Yorkshire Police deals with the consequences of vulnerability or the fact that someone is in crisis.  High risk missing persons still present a significant demand to West Yorkshire Police, in particular children who are in a care setting and at risk of CSEA.  

• Managing Offenders - Demand around managing offenders has increased over the last five years and is predicted to continue to increase.   In particular the predicted increase in offences and offenders relating to sexual crime and risk of harm, has the consequence of more offenders and in particular complex offenders to manage.  Registered Sex Offenders are predicted to increase to around 10% each year which presents a significant threat.  To manage the threat, harm and risk, ‘traditional’ IOM staff provide the resilience for the management of RSOs.  However, this then means West Yorkshire Police is at risk of not being able to manage sufficiently both the risk of harm and serious acquisitive crime cohorts. 

• Cyber Crime – It is not fully understood the nature and scale of both cyber-enabled and cyber dependent crime and as such, both are predicted to increase in light of the proliferation of technology and the increasing prevalence of the ‘online world’.  There is an increasing use of technology to facilitate a wide range of organised crime including CSEA, Human Trafficking, Fraud, Radicalisation and Cyber enabled/dependent crime and we predict that this will increase, in particular around CSEA (IIOC/Live streaming) and Fraud.  The use of the dark web for other elements of organised crime is an increasing threat. 

Financial Challenges and CSR 2019

• The 2015 Spending Review assumed that demand would be flat or in some cases fall, however in reality demand has risen over the last three years, which has been echoed nationally. At the same time officer numbers have fallen and funding has reduced putting significant pressure on West Yorkshire Police to balance the budget.

• Medium Term Financial Forecast (MTFF) planning has recently been updated to reflect national as well as local assumptions and shows a significantly worsening financial picture, with a predicted deficit of £37.946m by 2022/23.
   
• The main factors affecting the MTFF are impacts from severe delays in the national Emergency Services Network (resulting in unplanned Airwave extension costs of £2.7m in each year from 2020/21 to 2022/23), a reduction in ROCU funding (of over £4.9m over the MTFF period) and an increase in the employer pension contribution for Police Pensions. The Police Pension is a significant issue and will cost West Yorkshire Police £6.6m in 2019/2020 and for 2020/21 onwards and additional £20m per year.  Nationally it will cost the service £165m in 2019/20 and £417m each year thereafter.

• I have one of the lowest precept to grant ratios in the country with West Yorkshire being in the bottom 10 of the 43 Local Policing Bodies. Currently I have a 75% grant to 25% precept, compared to some Local Policing Bodies which have a ratio of 50/50.  This results in a heavy reliance on the Home Office for funding and due to nationally set levels, can only raise limited additional funding through increases to precept.  Any reductions in grant funding will have a significant impact on West Yorkshire Police, which is felt less so than Forces that have a more even split between grant and precept.
    

• I have significant concerns that the next CSR will not prioritise policing as a protected department.  Cuts or a standstill budget within the context of increasing demand and an already difficult financial position, plus a revision of the funding formula and the impact of national programmes which continue to seek additional funding, significantly threaten the financial sustainability of the Service.

• Since austerity measures began in 2010, we have undertaken many efficiency initiatives:

• I have entered into collaboration to improve capabilities and make efficiencies,
• I have rationalised the estate to minimise the impact on the frontline
• I have provided reserve funding to enable digital transformation of the service meaning our officers are more accessible, visible and productive out in our communities.

• However, the pressures we now face and will face given predicted demand are becoming increasingly difficult. Despite all the efficiencies and transformational changes we have made to date and we will be making, we will still require a significant uplift in resources to meet additional demand.

Funding Formula

• We welcome the review of the funding formula, as the current formula as suggested by NAO is ‘not fit for purpose’ in reflecting the significant demand pressures faced, particularly by large urban metropolitan forces.
• However the review does present a risk and it is important to state outright, that unless there is an injection of funding into policing, all the review of the formula will do is shift finite resources around and not address the fundamental issue, which is the need for additional funding for policing as part of the Comprehensive Spending Review.

Conclusions

• I recognise and support the conclusions of the NAO report and am concerned about increasing demand across a more complex policing landscape, within the context of diminishing resources.

• If we are to balance our approach by investing in neighbourhood policing, investigating crime, safeguarding vulnerable people and tackling serious and organised crime all within the context of an increasing threat around terrorism, we require funding that reflects the nature of the threat and risk we face

• The APCC and NPCC are working closely with Home Office and wider policing partners to develop a co-ordinated Law Enforcement Spending Review submission for the period 2020/21 through to 2024/25. This is a joint strategy, with resource drawn from both policing and the Home Office to support the development of the submission. West Yorkshire representatives are contributing to the submission.

October 2018