Written evidence submitted by Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (COSLA)

Aberdeenshire’s demographic trends

At 2015 Aberdeenshire’s population is 261,960 and is approximately 5% of the total Scottish population. There are fewer 16-29 year olds compared to the rest of Scotland however, similar to Scotland as a whole just under a quarter of the population is over 60 (24.1%). The population of over 60s is forecast to increase and specifically biggest increase by far is expected in the 75+ age group (130.7% in 2035 compared to 2010).

Almost 19% of the population is under 16 which is slightly higher than Scotland.

Aberdeenshire has a lower death rate than Scotland as a whole.

Life expectancy

Life expectancy in Aberdeenshire is generally greater than the Scottish average however within Aberdeenshire, there are significant differences in life expectancy between areas.  For example in parts of Fraserburgh life expectancy is significantly lower for males and females.

Aberdeenshire has higher Healthy Life Expectancy for both males and females than other areas in Grampian and Scotland as a whole. It also has a lower expected period in “not healthy health”. This may reduce the impact of the higher increases in the older population projected.

Migration

More people entered Aberdeenshire 2012-2014 than left. Migrants aged 30-44 year olds accounted for the highest group of inward migrants. However younger people (16-29 year olds) are more likely to leave Aberdeenshire.

Based on 2011 statistics, over 3,000 of the Aberdeenshire population did not speak English well and over 700 not at all.

Based on national insurance registrations 2014/15, the highest number of migrants were Lithuanian, Nigerian, Hungarian and Latvian. In addition almost 1600 pupils have a main language at home that is not English.

Between 2015 and 2017 there is likely to be around 120 Syrian New Scots.

Impact on policy setting and service delivery

The Aberdeenshire Health and Social Care Partnership Strategic Plan sets out clearly the impact an aging population will have on services in the future:

The strategic priorities identified in the plan are focused on the changes we need to make and the different relationship required between individuals, the communities of Aberdeenshire and organisations that provide health and

social care advice and support in order to meet the strategic aims:

• to achieve sustainable, positive health and social care outcomes for people living in Aberdeenshire through working in partnership with communities and people who use services and their unpaid carers
• to improve the health of the Aberdeenshire population
•                                                                                                                                                                         to provide high quality treatments and care             

In relation to migration and particularly refugees, ESOL learning is both a priority and essential to enabling inclusion and participation in their local communities as well as engaging with the key services which citizens require to engage with in everyday life. English levels have been generally low, requiring a high level of ESOL support. The requirement for exemption for DWP also places a high demand on the level of ESOL provision. In 2016/17 there is an expectation of increased take up of community-based learning and capacity building and service delivery and grant funding is being sought to enhance community based adult and family learning ESOL. There will be an increased focus on:

• workplace ESOL to support retention of those in local employment – this will predominantly industry specific (for example fish processing in Peterhead)
• College based full and part time English Language courses at SCQF 4 and 5 levels as well as beginner and elementary levels

There continues to be a focus on drawing skills in from the UK and abroad to support north East public and private sector skills shortages. The Aberdeen City and Shire Regional Skills Strategy and Action Plan states the following about skills shortages:

Amongst the existing workforce, employers are more likely to report a skills gaps. Set against the 7% of the workforce with skills gaps, by occupation skills gaps are most apparent in:

• Caring, leisure and other services (12% of Aberdeen City and Shire employment; 6% Scotland).
• Sales and customer service (10% of Aberdeen City and Shire employment; 7% Scotland).
• Associate professionals (8% of Aberdeen City and Shire employment; 5% Scotland).

This report also states that all industries rely on recruiting from abroad.  It also cites the aging workforce as a problem in workforce retention.  

Angus Council Response to COSLA

Demography and Migration - Analysis in Angus Council

Angus Council uses a range of sources, both internal and external, to monitor and project the impact of demographic change and migration on Angus. Our main focus is on demand for council services, particularly care and education and labour supply for the Angus economy, particularly the agricultural and care sectors.

In terms of external data, we make use of standard national data, for example, the Census and datasets provided by National Records of Scotland. Our services add to this a range of more focused data specific to their remit, so, for example, our Economic Development service uses Regional Skills Assessment data provided by Skills Development Scotland. Finally, to complement the external information we use internal administrative data, for example, these breakdowns of registrations with our Economic Development Skills Team for 2015/16 and the current financial year to date.

2015/16

April 16 to date:

This example illustrates our approach of analysing general and focused national datasets together with local data. It is an approach we use across the Council.

Demography and Migration – Issues for Angus

The demographic issues Angus faces are not uncommon. As is the case across Scotland we are seeing a growth in the proportion of older people in the population. As we age levels of physical and mental ability decline, this can cause issues both in terms of care provision and in the transition to more efficient digital services. To address this challenge we take accessibility very seriously and seek to design services that are accessible to all members of society including our older citizens. This approach requires investment, innovation and engagement with service users.

In terms of overall population we are experiencing growth, with about 10,000 people added between 2001 and the last Census in 2011. We are attracting migrants and have also seen migrants settling here and starting families with a large number of births to Eastern Europeans. The ethnic breakdown of council staff also shows increasing numbers of ‘white others’ and we know that there are more people from Eastern European countries being employed in the care sector, both public and private. Data from ESOL (English classes) shows that demand outstrips supply, and anecdotal evidence provided by our Equalities Officer indicates that the primary reason for attendance is to gain employment or better employment. Migration and new births are thus providing solutions to the demographic challenge of an ageing population that we face.

In economic terms the single biggest issue is the availability of seasonal workers. The local agricultural economy relies heavily on seasonal migrants due to the reluctance of the indigenous population to do this work. The number of migrants can reach 3,000 or so over the season. Farms advertise abroad and recruit through agencies regulated through the GLA and NFU. Angus is not experiencing significant skills shortages that need to be addressed by permanent migration.

In terms of the policy environment, national policy is sufficiently flexible both in terms of seasonal and permanent migration. As noted above, if policy were to change there could be problems for the local agricultural economy in securing sufficient seasonal labour. Similarly, if policy were to change in such a way that permanent migration became unattractive, it is possible that our ageing population would no longer be counter-balanced by young migrants, family formation and new births.

City of Edinburgh’s Response to COSLA

Strategy and Insight

June 2016

Introduction

1. COSLA and the Scottish Affairs Committee are gathering information on the demographic work currently being undertaken by Scottish local authorities to be utilised for future planning for implications such as, increased service demand; an ageing population; skills gaps; and attracting migration. The Committee is also interested in views on whether the UK Immigration policy is flexible enough to meet the needs of the economy and an ageing population and having suitable policy levers to encourage people to move to Scotland.

Demographics in Edinburgh

1.  
2. Over the past ten years Edinburgh has been one of the fastest growing local authorities in the UK, and over the next 20 years Edinburgh’s population is expected to grow by 19%, to around 600,000. The age structure of the population will also change.  This will result in extra demand and provision for services such as; schools, early years facilities, residential and care facilities and affordable housing.  Analysis of population change and its impacts on service demand is currently built into the planning of services.
3. The Council and NHS Lothian have developed a Market Shaping Strategy for 2013 to 2018.  The Strategy aims to ensure Edinburgh’s residents are well cared for and that people who need help, stay well and safe, and are able to exercise choice and as much control as they wish over their support. Part of the strategy looks at future demand for services and how population trend information can be shared amongst services.  With Edinburgh’s 85+ age group projected to more than double by 2037 (a 110% increase from 10,100 to 21,300), meaning growing numbers of both older active citizens and those affected by frailty.  This resulting pressure on services means that it is clear that the Council and its partners cannot do more of the same and there is a need to change the system from a focus on assessment and formal services to local solutions, prevention and capacity building.
4. The Council’s Local Development Plan recognises the Cities growing population and aims to provide more and better homes for people to help meet housing need and support economic growth. The Plan also recognises that a growing population increases the need for local shops and community facilities such as schools, health care services and community centres. The growth of the city; through increased population and housing; business and other development will also require new and improved infrastructure for public transport, changes to the road network and access to suitable greenspace.  The Strategic Development Plan and local housing strategies across the SESplan area, which covers Edinburgh, the Lothians, Scottish Borders and part of Fife, indicates that land for a total of 107,560 new homes will be required across this area in the period up to 2024.
5. Since 2010 Edinburgh has experienced a period of rapid increase in primary school pupil numbers.  This can be attributed to the number of births increasing each year, which is expected to peak at 6,000 in 2022 and to be sustained at around that level thereafter.  Based on current population projections the citywide primary school roll is projected to continue rising and reach an estimated 31,300 by 2020 and then increase further to an estimated 35,400 by 2030.  A significant part of the increased demand for primary school places is expected to be met by the necessity to provide new or expanded schools to accommodate additional pupils, generated from the new housing development in the city as outlined in the Local Development Plan.  As a knock on affect to the rise in primary school placements, it is anticipated that the secondary school estate will start to experience rising rolls from 2017.
6. Edinburgh's economic strategy, A Strategy for Jobs 2012-17 aims to achieve sustainable economic growth through investment in jobs.  The strategy has the vision for Edinburgh to be a confident, creative and inspiring capital city, which powers growth and jobs for the city region and Scotland.  It provides a commitment to sustainability, drawing talent and investment from around the world and delivering a City which puts the people of Edinburgh at the heart of its economic success.  Employers in Edinburgh are increasingly reporting skills shortages and gaps, particularly in the technical and care sectors.  The Council is working on developing sector specific skills academies (e.g. Business-led Academies) through Schools, Universities and Colleges.
7. The Council’s risk planning identifies increase in service demands alignment with population growth.  This highlights the need for strong strategic planning in relation to increasing demand for critical services, taking into account the growth in the City’s population as well as changing demographics, where there is a clear risk of shortfalls in funding and ultimately lower quality of service.
8. The Council is currently developing a consistent approach to assessing the financial and service aspects of demographic change upon the Council’s services.  Initial work has been undertaken to develop city-wide and local-level population projections to promote improved consistency and co-ordination in service planning.  The Council is developing a single consistent approach to planning and predicting future service needs.  This approach aims to:

• Provide new estimates of likely population change in the city over the next decade which are consistent with the Council’s own planning policies and understanding of likely house building patterns;

• Provide a single set of estimates of likely population growth by locality, ward, and age group for use across all Council services for demand planning purposes;

• Improve analysis and understanding of the sensitivity of likely population growth to changes in core assumptions such as house building rates, household size, birth and mortality rates, migration flows and other factors.

9. Future work will be carried out to update projections to incorporate data from the 2015 Housing Land Audit and the most up to date analysis of expected house building patterns.  The Council will also be developing methodology to ensure it fits with existing service needs and to publish the findings for use in service demand and financial planning.

Migration

10. The Council submitted evidence to the Migration Advisory Committees review of Tier 2 Visa’s.  The evidence found that a restriction in Tier 2 Visas will have a negative impact on Edinburgh’s economy.  Companies use the Tier 2 system to fill a small number of specialist roles that are vital to help their businesses grow and compete internationally. If these companies face further barriers that hamper their growth it will have a negative impact on them and the wider Edinburgh economy.
11. Edinburgh businesses, surveyed by the Council, advised that further restrictions on hiring non-EEA staff would also make Edinburgh a less attractive location for investment.  The UK is currently a popular destination for foreign direct investment. However, if the Government implements further measures to hamper the movement of skilled non-EEA workers it will damage the UK’s reputation and investment is likely to be lost to other countries. The Council proposed a change to policy, to a regional system that encourages the distribution of visas to areas that require them.  Highlighting that, changes to the system shouldn’t favour the location with the highest salaries.
12. The Council views the use of demographic information as essential to effective future service delivery and budget planning.  The Council is currently developing its approach to how it gathers demographic information and evaluating how it can be used to future proof services and meet increased demand. 

References

Market Shaping Strategy for 2013 to 2018

Local Development Plan

A Strategy for Jobs 2012-17

Dumfries and Galloway Council Response to CoSLA Request for Evidence for the Scottish Affairs Committee

1                    We would like to gather information on the demographic work Scottish local authorities are undertaking right now.  

We have worked with our Health colleagues on demographic information for Health and Social Care Integration.

Link to Health and Social Care Strategic Needs Assessment:

http://www.dg-change.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Strategic-Needs-Assessment-V1_01.pdf

A number of issues have been raised by this work including:

• identifying that extra research around the reasons for and impact of migration on the region would be valuable and
• in order to maintain the resilience of our organisations, changes to the local population require us to plan our future public sector workforce now.

2              What is being done to try to counteract these issues?

Although we are aware of these issues plans to address them are at a very early stage. We have a meeting set up between our HSCI Lead and our Head of Economic Development to discuss the issues and identify what activity may be required.

3              We are particularly interested in work that is being carried out in relation to attracting migrants into the local area and some of the issues local authorities are faced with when trying to encourage inward migration.

We have no current work ongoing in this area. However, we know that four or five years ago some of our food producers, mainly fish factories, actively recruited from eastern Europe to fill vacant posts that locals wouldn’t take. Community planning partners at this point worked together to provide information packs to these workers on common every day practice such as rules of the road as one of the main issues facing Police was drunk-driving and people failing to stop. Once here some people also had higher skills that were valuable to the business but the challenge was to have their qualifications checked and retrain them into our practice, such as electricians.

4              The Committee is also interested in local government’s views on whether UK Immigration policy is flexible enough to meet the needs of our economy and ageing population and do we feel we have suitable policy levers to encourage people to move to Scotland?

Given that we’re in the early throws of discussions about our needs in the health and social care sector it is hard to answer this question. We would anticipate that some of our ‘migration needs’ may be addressed by other UK citizens but time will tell.

EAST AYRSHIRE COUNCIL

EVIDENCE SUBMISSION TO THE SCOTTISH AFFAIRS COMMITTEE – INQUIRY INTO THE DEMOGRAPHY OF SCOTLAND

Demographic Profile of East Ayrshire

1. The current East Ayrshire population (approximately 122,000) is comprised of 17.3% children aged 0-15, 62.9% individuals aged 16-64 and 19.7% older people aged 65 and over. This composition is consistent with the national age structure. However, continued increasing life expectancy, decreasing birth rates and outward working-age migration are anticipated to result in shifts in the age structure East Ayrshire over the next two decades. The population aged 0-15 and 16-64 are projected to decline by 5.4% and 13.5% respectively by 2036.  In the same period this demographic shift which will see a 45% increase in the 65+ age group, whom are projected to comprise 28.7% of the population by 2036.   Within East Ayrshire there are further shifts taking place with social and economic change resulting in depopulation in southern communities and expansion of commuter communities in the north.  There are significant rural communities in East Ayrshire and the changing demographic profile can increase the risk of social isolation.  A significant proportion of our population is affected by multiple deprivation.  In summary, the implications of this ageing profile are wide ranging and relate to prominent public policy issues including wellbeing, housing, social care, quality of life and integrated service delivery.

Impact of Ageing on Service Provision

2. As highlighted above, the projected demographic profile of East Ayrshire presents the Council and its partners with significant challenges in terms of the sustainable provision of services to meet the needs of the over 65 population.

3. The wellbeing and independence of older people is a key priority in East Ayrshire where 58% of the aged 65+ population are physically limited by long term health conditions. In addition prevalence of multi-morbidity and rates of emergency, respiratory-related and falls-related admissions among older people are significantly higher than national averages. This means that older people are primary consumers of health and social care services in East Ayrshire, with around £119 million (42%) of Health and Social Care spend being for older people.  It is important not to present increasing life expectancy negatively or in terms of ‘dependency’ – older people contribute to communities as volunteers, carers and the wider community during working age and beyond.

4. A further implication of this ageing profile is the percentage of older aged individuals in East Ayrshire who are either single, separated or divorced, which increased by nearly 21% between 2003 and 2011. This increase has contributed towards 35% of the 65+ population currently occupying a single person household, a living arrangement which is associated with a range of health and social issues in later life.

5. However, service use is higher among the older old and the rapid expansion of this age band will drive demand for support. This has substantial implications for the development of a sustainable future model of care, based on wellbeing, community capacity, supported self-care, new technology, preventative and anticipatory intervention and integrated service provision where required.

Actions to Improve Wellbeing and Support Older Aged Individuals

6. In East Ayrshire partners have adopted a proactive approach to counteract the anticipated shifts in age structure and service demand. Such challenges are reflected in the key outcomes for the CPP and the Wellbeing Delivery Plan and the associated actions which have been implemented to improve wellbeing and support older aged individuals to live healthily at home or in the community for as long as reasonably possible. These include;

7. Assisting older people to remain safely at home for as long as reasonably possible with specific support mechanisms provided to achieve this goal. A number of services including care at home, re-ablement, home aids and adaptations, technology-enabled support and a range of community services are provided to enable older people to live independently at home for longer.

8. A range of accommodation initiatives are provided to ensure the wellbeing of individuals who can no longer remain at home, including supported / sheltered housing, housing for the elderly and care home cost contribution.

9. The East Ayrshire Health and Social Care Partnership have placed prevention and early intervention at the forefront of support services for older people. These services are aimed at helping service users to plan for the ageing process and prevent, delay or manage crises.

10. Services introduced include 'Invigor8' classes (falls prevention), home-based rehabilitation, enablement services and the development of sustainable social networks for older people.

11. New models of care are currently being developed across Ayrshire to improve service provision and to counteract issues which stem from increasing old aged healthcare consumption. Innovative methods are being developed to reduce unnecessary admissions and pathway delays and to ensure that sufficient multidisciplinary support is provided within the community to facilitate discharges and readmission avoidance.

Impact of Migration in East Ayrshire

12. Between 2012 and 2014 East Ayrshire received 2,313 migrants, which was offset with an outward migration of 2,406 residents within this period. In this period, 1,063 individuals aged 16-29 migrated from East Ayrshire (vs. 889 inward), indicating that a considerable number of residents are migrating from the Authority at an early stage in their working careers. Outward migration is a particular issue in Southern (rural) localities where employment opportunities are more scarce. This is reflected in the considerably lower working age populations within such areas.

Emerging Skills Gap and Migration

13. Changing demographics and outward working age migration are contributing to a long-term skills gaps in several sectors.  This is both a local and national issue.  As noted above, demographic, social and economic changes are giving rise to an increasing need for care and support.  At the same time there are challenges in attracting workers to the sector and in recruitment to key roles within the workforce.  This can be elevated in more rural communities. Combined with an ageing workforce profile and changing patterns of work, the effect of this is an emerging gap between increasing need for care and support in the community and the potential and actual supply of a workforce with the necessary health and social care skills.

14. The Council has taken proactive steps across sectors to address skills gaps, encourage career development and to prevent outward working age migration. These include;

15. Working in partnership with community groups, Vibrant Communities is delivering a range of community based learning opportunities for young people and adults to acquire new skills and qualifications and improve employment prospects.

16. The Council, in partnership with Skills Development Scotland (SDS), is helping to address the needs of local employers, employees, labour markets and unemployed individuals.

17. East Ayrshire Council is also supporting a wide range of local organisations throughout the local authority area to provide volunteering opportunities, training and SQA qualification schemes for young people and adults to develop skills which match the needs of local employers.

18. In relation to flexibility within the migration policy of the UK Government.  Historically migration has contributed substantially to the development and delivery of health and social care in the acute, care at home and care home sectors.  There is variation in the participation of non-UK born workers in the social care sector across the country and this participation is particularly important in certain areas where there is competition and tight labour market conditions. 

19. A twin track approach to addressing this would combine improving the attractiveness of the sector alongside a more flexible approach to migration to offset the restriction on net migration from current UK policies.

20. Practically, the identification of particular roles as key skills gaps could facilitate overseas recruitment.  This would have implications for the operation of the visa system in the UK. 

21. A degree of flexibility in this could enable focused recruitment to different skill levels.  For example, adding particular skills or roles to the shortage occupation list of the Migration Advisory Committee, reviewing Tier 3 migration rules and relaxing or exempting the £35,000 earnings requirement for Tier 3 in relation to these roles.   

Written evidence submitted by North Ayrshire Council

Scottish Affairs Committee inquiry into the demography of Scotland

Response to CoSLA June 2016

Recent work on population issues in North Ayrshire

A paper was presented to the Council’s Strategic Management Team in April 2014 outlining progress made on achieving the Council’s aim to increase the population of North Ayrshire (see Appendix A). The paper summarises the key drivers impacting on population change in North Ayrshire as well proposed actions being considered by the Council.

Recent population trends in North Ayrshire

Recent mid-year estimates suggest that North Ayrshire’s population continues to fall slightly from 138,090 in 2011 to 136,130 in 2015 (-1.4%).

The 2012-based population projections show that North Ayrshire’s total population is projected to fall by 9% from 137,560 in 2012 to 125,465 in 2037 as shown in Table 1.  This compares to a projected  increase of 9% for Scotland and is the fourth highest projected decrease in Scotland (Inverclyde is the highest at -19%). Of North Ayrshire’s 9% projected decrease, -6% is caused by natural change whereas migration accounts for -3%.

Table 1 North Ayrshire Projected Population (2012-based) by Broad Age Group

Source: National Records of Scotland

As chart 1 shows, while the total population is projected to fall, there are significant differences between age groups with older age groups increasing significantly while the number of children and working age people falls.

Source: National Records of Scotland

In terms of migration chart 2 shows that since 2008 both in and out migration has been around 3,500-4,000 per annum resulting in net migration of between -415 and +333 per annum.

Chart 2 North Ayrshire Migration 2008 - 2014

Source: National Records of Scotland

Impact on local labour market

For areas such as North Ayrshire the impact of in-migration can be contradictory. On the one hand in terms of local government financing of service delivery, the benefits of having a stable or growing population are clear - we should be doing whatever we can to promote in-migration to North Ayrshire (regardless of whether migrants are Scottish or otherwise). The most financially attractive group are working age people with families, due to their tax contribution and the ability to help counter an ageing population profile over the longer term.

However in terms of the labour-market, one could argue that the opposite is the case - we simply don't have the business base to provide local employment opportunities for migrants so, unless immigrants (of any origin) live here but travel outwith North Ayrshire to work, the risk is that we simply ramp up local unemployment and benefit claims.

Impact of the Afghan/Syrian relocation programme

Between January and September 2015, North Ayrshire Council, working with the Home Office, successfully supported the resettlement of six Afghan families into the local area. This resettlement was part of the Afghan Relocation Programme. The Council and partner agencies provided robust resettlement and ongoing support packages to the families. The assistance, including employability support, helped with their integration into the area.

The families, which are made up of working age adults with children, all had English speaking household members (males). This greatly assisted the process of supporting these individuals to access suitable employment / training opportunities.  Although the numbers are small, a majority of the men within each household have successfully accessed work experience or suitable training opportunities to assist with their integration and journey into employment. Two of the men were directly assisted into employment with the support of the Council’s Employability and Skills team.

Five of the original Afghan families that arrived are still resident within North Ayrshire and have successfully settled into their new communities with no major issues to note.

Since November 2015, the Council has committed to support the resettlement of 50 to 100 refugees as part of the (Syrian) Vulnerable Persons Relocation Scheme. To date six Syrian families have arrived in North Ayrshire. The household compositions of these families are working aged adults with children.

The response to the arrival of these families from the local community has generally been warm and welcoming. In terms of supporting integration the Council and partners have adopted the same robust approach to resettlement as the Afghan programme.  The biggest challenge in relation to this programme is the lack of English language within the households. This lack of English language skills is being addressed with the provision of ESOL classes. However, this is a slow process and it will hinder the timescales for supporting family members into any employment / training / education.  Employability support will be provided to these family members when deemed they are ready.

Appendix A

Population Growth in North Ayrshire - Strategic Management Team 2nd April 2014

Introduction

A discussion paper prepared for the Council’s Corporate Management Team (CMT) in August 2012 highlighted the issue of population decline in North Ayrshire as well as a changing profile towards an ageing population. This report was then presented to the Council’s Cabinet on 26 February 2013.  The Cabinet agreed to take pro-active steps to increase the population of North Ayrshire. 

The SMT of 25th September agreed that the work should be taken forward by the Councils Development Planning Service.  This report provides an update on actions which may be taken in realising population growth within North Ayrshire.

Background

Population growth is recognised as a target within the Scottish Government Economic Strategy, acknowledging the role of population growth in achieving economic growth. Population growth impacts on economic performance by increasing the demand for goods and services. It can also be an indicator of the relative strength of a country or areas economy.

North Ayrshire has exhibited the following trends in the period 2001-2010:

•          A slight increase in population from 138,150 to 138,820;

•          An increase in the population in Kilwinning, Dalry & West Kilbride, and North Coast and Cumbrae Wards;

•          A declining population in the Irvine East, Irvine West, Kilbirnie & Beith, and Saltcoats & Stevenston Wards;

•          Net out-migration, particularly due to out-migration of the young;

•          Net in-migration from Renfrewshire and North Lanarkshire and to a lesser degree from Glasgow, Inverclyde and East Renfrewshire; and,

•          Net out-migration to East Ayrshire, South Ayrshire and Edinburgh.

2010 based projections predict a decline in North Ayrshire’s total population from 135,180 in 2010 to 128,761 by 2035 (-4.7%). In contrast, the Scottish population is expected to increase by 10.2% over the same period.

North Ayrshire attracts a significant number of in-migrants each year (3,579 in 2011), however it also loses a similar amount (3,577 in 2011). 16-29 year olds are the largest group of both in and out-migrants.   

A declining and ageing population has implications for economic growth as well as the levels of service provision required within North Ayrshire. It could in future also affect grant aided expenditure, as well as negatively impact upon the case for investment from the Scottish Government in, for example, strategic transport infrastructure or the education estate.

Key drivers impacting on population within North Ayrshire, i.e. the ‘pull’ factors attracting people to live here, and the ‘push’ factors resulting in the loss of population to other areas are set out below:

Actions elsewhere

Glasgow and Dundee Cities have reversed long term trends in depopulation in recent years, based on a diversification of their economy, the promotion of their city centres in terms of their cultural, entertainment and the retail offer, and the promotion of city living through the reuse of brownfield land.  Dundee in particular has recently started to see the benefits of a long term vision being in place for the city supported by the public sector with this now yielding significant momentum, private sector investment and a stabilisation of the city’s population.

Inverclyde is perhaps a more comparable example given similar issues of geography and a decline in their traditional manufacturing industry.  The scale of its historic population loss, and projected decline is greater than that of North Ayrshire.  In responding to the issue, Inverclyde Council have undertaken primary research into why people leave their area and on suggested means of intervention.  This review concluded with the following points which may equally apply to North Ayrshire.

i)        Economic interventions should be based on some existing strengths or advantages, however small at the outset.  Efforts should be focussed on the existing SME base as a means of stimulating economic and employment growth

ii)      Successful housing based approaches typically balance measures that try to slow decline by focussing on existing residents, with measures that seek to increase population by bringing new people to the area

iii)    Improving the cultural and retail offer is an important part of the mix in raising place attractiveness and can help to attract new investment, bring in visitors and expenditure and raise the profile and image of once declining places

Their action plan came with an associated budget of £2m.  This budget made provision for interventions including assistance with housing relocation fees for approx. 30 families (£30k), support for the development of self- build housing schemes (£250k), an Inverclyde Graduate Entry Programme (£150k), the provision of support to businesses (£100k) and a promotional campaign (£140k).

Some of these are already being progressed by NAC, although not within the context of a specific population growth strategy.

Actions and Recommendations

The aspiration of an increased population will require to be addressed corporately.  It will to a large extent come about through existing areas of focus for the Council, primarily related to the availability of employment and education attainment levels.  It is considered that the following may represent primary actions within a population growth strategy:

It is recommended that the above actions are considered by the SMT and CPP, before being taken to Cabinet as part of a population growth strategy.  This may require a level of associated financial resource which would be identified in the further development of the strategy.

North Lanarkshire Council

Lorraine Cook from COSLA would like to know in regard to Committee Inquiry on the demography of Scotland

‘I would like to gather information on demographic work councils are doing.  I’m hoping to get a sense of local demographic concerns and what is being done to counteract this, skills gaps/needs of the local economy, ageing/working age population, particularly work in relation to attracting migrants into the area, and issues that councils are faced with when trying to encourage inward migration.  I’m planning on sending an email out to Chief Execs as well as the network.  If you know of any colleagues involved in this work I would very much appreciate it if you could send me their contact details or if you are working on any of this please get in touch.

More details on the inquiry can be found here:

http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/scottish-affairs-committee/inquiries/parliament-2015/demography-devolution-scotland-15-16/’