1. From our knowledge and observations of The Environment Agency and Met Office Models / Forecasts of extreme rain and flood risk they are very skilled and probably world-leading at short range warnings of flood risk from hours to about 2 days ahead. The response to warnings has generally been very effective and any shortcomings depend crucially on the amount of available resources to respond quickly and adequately.
2. For long-range forecasting weeks to months and years ahead the Met office sophisticated numerical short-range models are not applicable. Their medium range (in WeatherAction terms) normally weeks to about a month or so ahead prognoses depend on estimated likely future states of certain descriptive parameters of global circulation (eg Arctic Oscillation AO, Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation AMO, El-Nino etc). Although of importance and interest and possessing some broad skill these give very broad brush results and are not skilled enough at the extreme events which cause floods.
3. An additional approach is needed for forecasting (a) major rainfall events in long range of up to 12 months ahead down to details of a few days and (b) for forecasting general periods of flooding (down to weeks) from predictable changes in climate (circulation patterns and jet stream) up to 2 decades forward. These are both being successfully done using WeatherAction’s SLAT (Solar-Lunar-Action-Technique) which depends on predictable aspects of Solar activity (and magnetic effects) which through the solar-wind of charged particles reaching the Earth from the sun change the Earth’s weather patterns and storm intensities by moving the jet stream and changing precipitation rates.
4. WeatherAction’s approach for example correctly predicted all or almost all (depending on levels of testing) of the very extreme flood periods in a lot of detail (down to days) since 2007 - eg summers 2007, 2008, 2009, 20012 and the two most major storms hitting the (south) UK in the same period – late Oct 2013 and late Dec 2015 (storm Frank) to within days from 6 months and 10 weeks ahead respectively. Weather Action also predicted the coldest December for 100yrs – 2010.
5. WeatherAction’s approach also correctly warned (in 2008) of the Wild Jet Stream Era (Mini-Ice-Age in the cold parts of that) which the world is now increasingly in and the associated wild extremes including storms. These extremes include;- eg increased risk of the likes of Hurricane Sandy which hit New York Oct 29th 2012 (Related storms can hit the UK), the 2013 & 2015 storms above which hit south UK and displacements southwards of the Polar Vortex (extremely cold air in polar regions).
6. For the rest of the year WeatherAction forecasts (a) up to July 2016 show certain extreme rain-storm periods in well defined periods (down to a few days) and more work needs to be done to advise on dangers of serious flooding (which normally depends on fronts &/or Jet stream getting ‘stuck’), (b) After July some more periods are likely and they will be investigated. The point that these need to be looked at was made in a letter (link below) to COBRA (the Prime Minister). A reply is awaited.
7. In the coming two decades the Wild Jet stream era will become more serious and will include the advent of more rain floods and floods from snow-melt due to the increased snowfall which is certain to come. These tendencies will carry on to at least 2035 and will be predicted in general – ie high risk and low risk years / months and in detail.
8. The WeatherAction approaches should be pursued alongside the Standard Meteorology ‘Short’ and ‘Medium’ range forecasts to give an integrated warning system from likely risk of weeks resolution years ahead down to hours ahead in detail. These events are nothing to do with CO2 levels and we would point out that extremes experienced follow certain approximate cycles notably ~60yrs (the recent floods and storms echoing the early ‘50s) and longer cycles which give Mini-Ice-Age / Wild Jet Stream conditions on top of the ~60yr Solar-Lunar Jet Stream effects.
9. There is no evidence for the (CO2 etc) idea of man-made Global Warming / Climate Change, the warnings of which have all failed. On extreme events it should be noted that the extremes of recent years are entirely the wrong type of extremes for the CO2 theory which necessitates a Northward shifted relatively un-wavy Jet stream in a much warmer world. The Jet stream in recent years is the opposite of this – South shifted and increasingly wild. Pursuit of this increasingly wobbly idea is distorting research and measures away from what is needed and destroying UK industry without reducing total CO2 production - through eg Energy charge hikes and the EUETS (Emissions trading) / UK Climate Change Act 2008.
March 2016
References:
Letter to Cobra (the Prime Minister) Dec31 2015: http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews15No30.pdf
Presentation at University of Exeter Piers Corbyn Go Green Week 25 Feb2016 http://bit.ly/1LLdfuf
Time to Review CO2 & Energy Taxes across the world http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews16No04.pdf
Piers Corbyn Andrew Neil Show Dec 3rd 2015 http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b06rjqh1/this-week-byelection-special
The new Mini Ice Age is now upon us http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews13No5.pdf
Co2Con Nailed VIDEO http://bit.ly/QS0k34
WeatherAction Accuracy: http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact45
Piers Corbyn was Named by American Thinker magazine as Climate Predictor of the year 2010.