Written evidence submitted by National Records of Scotland
What are Scotland’s demographic trends and how do they compare with the rest of the United Kingdom?
Contents
Key points – Demographic statistics
Components of population change
Why is the population projected to increase?
Differences in assumptions for the different UK nations
Differences in life expectancy
Projected age structure across the UK
Geographical variations in population
Key points – Demographic statistics
- Scotland’s population was estimated at 5.35 million in mid-2014, the highest ever estimated. In 2014 the population of England was 54.32 million, the population of Wales was 3.09 million and the population of Northern Ireland was 1.84 million.
- The population of Scotland is projected to increase by 7% between 2014 and 2039. This is lower than the 15% projected increase for the UK as a whole.
- The population of England is projected to be 17% higher in 2039, compared with an increase of 10% for Northern Ireland, 7% for Scotland and 6% for Wales.
- Although Scotland has historically experienced net out-migration, Scotland has more recently experienced net inwards migration.
- If current trends continue, net inward migration is projected to be the main contributor to Scotland’s population growth over the next 25 years.
- For Scotland, 90% of the population increase over the next 10 years is projected to be due to continued net in-migration, compared with 49% for the UK as a whole. This is a result of the much smaller contribution of natural change (births minus deaths) to population increase in Scotland.
- The average number of children born to women in Scotland (the total fertility rate) is lower than in rest of the UK, and this trend is projected to continue.
- The life expectancy for males and females born in Scotland is projected to increase over the next 25 years. However, life expectancy for both males and females in Scotland is lower than in the rest of the UK and this trend is projected to continue.
- Scotland’s population is ageing. There is projected to be an increase of 28% in the number of people of state pension age and over in Scotland between 2014 and 2039. The population of children aged 0-15 and the population of working age are both projected to increase by 1%.
- This compares with a projected increase of 33% for people of pensionable age and over in the rest of the UK, a projected increase of 11% for people of working age and a projected increase of 9% for children from 2014 to 2039.
- In mid-2014 Scotland had the lowest population density of all the UK constituent countries at 69 people per square kilometre. This compares with a population density of 417 people per sq. km in England, 149 people per sq. km in Wales and 136 people per sq. km in Northern Ireland.
- The number of households is growing, due to the rising population, and falling average households sizes, as more people live alone or in smaller households.
- The biggest growth is among older households. Older people are most likely to live in one- or two-person households. The proportion living alone increases with age, and older women are most likely to live alone, as they tend to out-live their partners.
- The number of people in Scotland living in care homes for older people has been falling over time, as more people are supported to live in their own homes.
Population
- Scotland’s population was estimated at 5.35 million in mid-2014, the highest ever estimated. In 2014 the population of England was 54.32 million, the population of Wales was 3.09 million and the population of Northern Ireland was 1.84 million. The population of the UK as a whole was 64.6 million in mid-2014. Figure 1 shows the population share of the UK constituent countries.
Figure 1: Population share across the UK
Components of population change
- In the year mid-2013 to mid-2014 the population of Scotland increased because approximately 3,500 more people were born than died and because total in-migration exceeded total out-migration by approximately 17,600 people. Other changes, such as armed forces and other special population adjustments, resulted in a loss of approximately 1,200 people.
- The net migration gain from the rest of the UK to Scotland was approximately 9,600 people. The net migration gain from overseas was around 8,000.
- The components of population change in the year to mid-2014 for the UK constituent countries are shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Components of population change mid-2013 to mid-2014 for UK constituent countries
Population projections
- The population of Scotland is projected to rise from 5.35 million in 2014 to 5.7 million in 2039 – an increase of 7% over the 25 year period.
- The UK population is projected to increase from an estimated 64.6 million in 2014, rising above 70 million in 2027 and reaching 74.3 million by 2039 – an increase of 15% over the 25 year period.
- The population of England is projected to be 17% higher in 2039, compared with an increase of 10% for Northern Ireland, 7% for Scotland and 6% for Wales as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Projected percentage population increase in the UK and constituent countries, 2014 to 2039
- The populations of England and Northern Ireland are projected to grow faster than those of Scotland and Wales (Figure 3). The population of Wales is projected to grow at a slightly slower rate than Scotland’s population.
Figure 3: Population change for UK countries, 2014-2039
- The Scottish Government has set a target to match average European (EU15) population growth over the period from 2007 to 2017. Scotland’s current status is ‘performance maintaining’ in terms of progress in meeting this target. More information is available in the Scotland Performs section of the Scottish Government website.
Why is the population projected to increase?
- Figure 4 shows that over the next decade, if current trends continue, 10% of the projected increase in Scotland’s population can be attributed to natural increase (more births than deaths) while 90% of the increase is due to assuming continuing inward net migration to Scotland (57% from international migration and 32% from cross-border migration with the rest of the UK).
Figure 4: Actual and projected natural change (births minus deaths) and net migration, 1952-2039.
- For the UK as a whole, 51% of the projected population increase over the next decade is due to natural change and 49% is due to inwards net migration.
Differences in assumptions for the different UK nations
- Population projections provide an indication of the size and age/sex structure of the future population if specified assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration were to be realised. They are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors (whether in the UK or overseas) might have on demographic behaviour.
- The demographic assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration are based on analysis of trends and expert advice, and the assumptions differ between the UK constituent countries.
Differences in fertility
- The average number of children born to women in Scotland (total fertility rate) has been lower than the averages for the rest of the UK since the early 1980s, and this trend is projected to continue into the future, as shown in Figure 5.
Figure 5: Past and projected total fertility rates in the UK and constituent countries
Differences in life expectancy
- Life expectancy is an estimate of how many years a person might be expected to live. It provides an objective means of comparing trends in mortality, over time, between areas of a country and other countries.
- Life expectancy for both males and females in Scotland is lower than in the rest of the UK.
- The ten areas with the lowest life expectancy at birth in the UK are shown in Figure 6. Six of the ten areas with lowest estimated life expectancy at birth (2011-2013) were in Scotland for both males and females.
Figure 6: Areas with the lowest life expectancy at birth for males and females in the UK, 2011-2013
- Life expectancy for males and females in Scotland is projected to increase between 2013 and 2039 (Figure 7).
Figure 7: Life expectation at birth for males and females in Scotland, actual (2013) and projected (2039)
- There are also projected to be increases in life expectancy across the UK, as shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Most recent (2013) and projected (2039) life expectancy at birth for males and females in the UK and its constituent countries
- The lower Scottish life expectancy for males and females compared with the rest of the UK is projected to continue, as shown in Figure 8.
Figure 8: Historical and projected (2014-based) life expectancy at birth in the UK and Scotland
Healthy life expectancy
Life expectancy (LE) is an estimate of how many years a person might be expected to live, whereas healthy life expectancy (HLE) is an estimate of how many years they might live in a 'healthy' state. HLE[1] is a key summary measure of a population's
health.
- The most recent annual estimates for Scotland are for boys born in 2014 to live 77.4 years on average, 60.3 of these in a 'healthy' state. Girls born in 2014 would be expected to live 81.4 years on average, 62.6 of these years being 'healthy'.
- Underlying trends in LE at birth show a general improvement in Scotland over recent years.
- The gap between LE and HLE (the years expected to be spent in a 'not healthy' state during the average lifetime) has been fairly constant for females between 1980 and 2008, but tended to increase for males.
- Time trends show that the gap between the sexes, in both LE and HLE at birth, has narrowed over time. For LE at birth, the difference between males and females was 6.4 years in 1980, falling to 4.0 years in 2014. For HLE at birth, the difference between males and females was 3.3 years in 1980, falling to 2.3 years in 2014.
- There are considerable variations in LE and HLE at birth in Scotland among different geographical and socio-economic groupings. For example, in 2009-13, male LE at birth ranged from 81.4 years in the least deprived quintile to 71.1 years in the most deprived quintile (a difference of 10.3 years). For male HLE at birth, the figures were 71.5 and 53.4 years respectively (a difference of 18.1 years). For females, LE at birth ranged from 84.1 years in the least deprived quintile to 77.1 years in the most deprived quintile (a difference of 7.0 years) while for HLE at birth, the figures were 72.9 and 56.1 years respectively (a difference of 16.7 years).
- LE is worse (lower) in Scotland than in the UK as a whole, for both males and females.
- HLE is worse (lower) in Scotland than in the UK for males, but similar for females.
- Scotland has one of the lowest LEs in Western Europe. International comparisons of HLE are hampered by the lack of consistent health measures. However, on the basis of a related indicator, healthy life years (HLY), it would appear that, in comparison with many European countries, Scotland fares badly for males but compares better for females.
Causes of death
- The three leading causes of death across the UK are cancer, circulatory diseases and respiratory diseases.
- In 2014, cancer was the most common broad cause of death for both sexes in England and Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland, accounting for around 3 in every 10 deaths. As shown in Table 3, there is a similar pattern across the UK constituent countries in the proportion of deaths caused by cancer, circulatory diseases and respiratory diseases.
Table 3: Three most common causes of death and total number of deaths in 2014 for males and females in the UK constituent countries
Note
Figures for England & Wales and/or Northern Ireland may not always be on exactly the same basis as National Records of Scotland's figures for Scotland: there can be differences in the coverage of what at first sight appear to be the same statistics. The ONS website states that General Mortality statistics are partially comparable for the four constituent countries of the UK (see Background Information for more details).
The ageing population
- Figure 9 illustrates that the population of Scotland is projected to age over the next 25 years.
Figure 9: Scotland’s population pyramid for 2014 and projected for 2039
- The average age of the population is projected to rise in Scotland and the UK over the next 25 years. Scotland’s median age (the age where half the population is above that age and half below) is currently almost two years higher than the UK. Scotland’s median age is projected to rise from 41.9 years to 45.2 years by 2039 compared with 40.0 years to 42.9 years for the UK as a whole.
Figure 10: The projected percentage change in population by age structure, 2014-2039
- Figure 10 shows the projections for different age groups in Scotland compared with the UK and the other constituent countries. Over the next 25 years:
- the number of children aged 0-15 is projected to grow by only 1% for Scotland compared to 9% for the UK as a whole;
- the population of working age is projected to increase by 1% for Scotland compared with 11% for the UK;
- the population of state pension age and over (based on the 2014 State Pension Act) is projected to grow by 28% for Scotland and 33% for the UK as a whole.
- A useful summary measure of the age structure of a population is the dependency ratio: the number of dependants (number of children aged 0-15 and the number of people of state pension age and over) per 100 people of working age population. It provides a useful way to examine the relative age structure of the population but should be interpreted with care.[2]
- The overall dependency ratio for the UK is projected to rise from 61 to 67 dependants per 100 working age population in the next 25 years, as shown in Table 4. Scotland’s overall dependency ratio is projected to rise from 58 to 67 dependants per 100 working age population over the same period. This is a larger projected increase for Scotland than for UK. Table 4 shows that this is due to the larger projected increase in the pensioner dependency ratio in Scotland.
Table 4 – Current and projected dependency ratios (per 100 working age population) in UK and Scotland, 2014 and 2039
Projected age structure across the UK
- The projected age structure is strongly influenced by the current age structure of a population.
- A number of factors interact to produce different growth rates between Scotland and the UK as a whole. For example, the UK level structure is heavily influenced by the age structure in England. This in turn is affected by trends in London.
- The most recent 2012-based sub-national population projections for England show clear differences between trends in London and England as a whole.
- Of the projected growth in London between 2012-2022, almost nine tenths is due to natural change (more births than deaths). For England as a whole, 60% of growth was projected to come from natural change.
- One reason for the high level of natural change is because London as a region has a relatively young age structure. In particular, nearly half the population in mid-2012 were estimated to be aged between 16 and 44 years old, the main childbearing ages. In most other English regions the proportion in this age group was just less than two fifths.
Geographical variations in population
- In mid-2014 Scotland had the lowest population density of all the UK constituent countries at 69 people per square kilometre. This compares with a population density of 417 people per sq. km in England, 149 people per sq. km in Wales and 136 people per sq. km in Northern Ireland. The population density of UK as a whole was 266 people per sq. km in mid-2014.
Figure 11 – Population density across the UK
- Figure 12 shows how population density differs across the UK.
Figure 12 – Population density across the UK
- The distribution of urban and rural areas also varies across the UK. Urban and rural definitions vary between UK constituent countries. The Eurostat urban rural typology provides a comparison across the UK and with the rest of Europe.
- Figure 13 displays the Eurostat urban rural typology (NUTS3 2010) for NUTS3 regions in the UK.
- The urban-rural typology for NUTS3 regions is based on a definition of urban and rural one sq. km grid cells. An urban area is identified by meeting the two following criteria: a population density of at least 300 inhabitants per sq. km; and a minimum population of 5,000 inhabitants across a group of neighbouring one sq. km cells that are above the density threshold.
Figure 13 - Urban rural typology for NUTS3 Regions in the UK
Source: Eurostat
- In Scotland, a settlement is defined to be a group of high density postcodes whose combined population rounds to 500 people or more.
- Over 90% of people in Scotland live within settlements. Settlements account for less than 3% of Scotland’s area (Figure 14).
Figure 14 – Map of settlements and non-settlements in Scotland
- The largest settlement in Scotland is Greater Glasgow with a population of 976,970 accounting for 18% of Scotland's population.
Households
Average households sizes are falling, as more people live alone or in small households, and fewer people live in larger households. This is shown in Figure 15.
Figure 15 – household types in Scotland, 1961-2011
The biggest projected growth in numbers of households is seen in the older age groups, as shown in Figure 16. This is due to a combination of the population ageing, and the fact that older people are more likely to live in one- or two-person households, rather than larger households.
Figure 16 – projected age of ‘head’ of household, 2012 and 2037
As age increases, the proportion of two-adult households falls, and the proportion of people who live alone increases, as shown in Figure 17. Older women are more likely to live alone as they tend to out-live their partners. The growth in the elderly population, and in the numbers of older people living alone, has implications for housing and social / health care, as people can receive support more easily when living with others.
Figure 17 – projected living arrangements of people aged 65+, 2012 and 2037
For those aged 65 and over, the likelihood of living in a care home for older people increases with age. However, the overall number of older people living in care homes for older people has fallen by 2% over the last decade, despite the fact that the elderly population has been growing. This is because more people are being supported to live in their own homes. Almost ¾ of people living in care homes for older people are women. The average age of people living in adult care homes has been rising, due to a fall in the numbers aged 75-84 and a rise in those aged 85-94, as shown in Figure 18. The percentage of long-stay residents living in a care home for older people, who were living with dementia, increased from 46% to 61% over this period.
Figure 18 – Long-stay residents in care homes for older people, by age, 2006-2015
Background information
- General Mortality statistics are partially comparable for the four constituent countries of the UK:
- Information about all deaths registered in England and Wales is held by the ONS. Death registration data for Scotland and Northern Ireland is held by the National Records of Scotland (NRS) and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), respectively. In Scotland a death must be registered within eight days compared to five days in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
- However the definitions, classifications and methods used in mortality statistics are broadly comparable across the four countries. All four countries use ICD-10v2010 (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (Tenth Revision)) to code cause of death.
- In terms of how non-resident deaths are dealt with, in England and Wales, deaths of those whose usual residence is outside England and Wales are included in total figures for England and Wales but excluded from any sub-division of England and Wales. In Scotland, deaths to non-residents are included in total figures for Scotland and also in any sub-division of Scotland (on basis of where death occurred rather than area of usual residence). In Northern Ireland, deaths to non-residents are treated similarly to Scotland although they do produce one table which separately identifies such deaths for sub-division of Northern Ireland (on basis of where death occurred).
Sources of data
This data is taken from the NRS publication on the Projected Population of Scotland (2014-based), the NRS 2014 mid-year population estimates, ONS publication on the National Population Projections (2014-based), the ONS publication on the National Life Tables (2012-2014), the NRS publication Life expectancy in Scottish Areas, the NISRA publication Life expectancy by age for local areas, the ONS Population density of the United Kingdom, the NRS publication on Mid-2012 Population Estimates for Settlements and Localities in Scotland, Eurostat Urban rural typology, NRS cause of death (2014) data for Scotland, NISRA cause of death (2014) data for Northern Ireland, ONS cause of death (2014) data for England and Wales, ScotPho website for Healthy life expectancy, the NRS publication Household Projections for Scotland, 2012-based and the ISD Scotland publication Care Home Census.