WRITTEN EVIDENCE FROM THE CABINET OFFICE AND THE GOVERNMENT OFFICE FOR SCIENCE (WFC0012)

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION SELECT COMMITTEE INQUIRY ‘WHITEHALL: CAPACITY TO ADDRESS FUTURE CHALLENGES’

HOW WELL DOES THE CIVIL SERVICE SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT IN IDENTIFYING CHALLENGES FACING THE UK OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS?

1. The Civil Service supports the Government to identify and respond to future challenges in several ways: deploying the expertise of independent organisations within Whitehall; through specialist expertise maintained at the centre of government and; and by strengthening core departmental capability to address challenges.

Independent Specialist Expertise

2. The Civil Service has strengthened its capacity to track and understand significant future trends, including in key areas such as the economy, demographics and climate.  In each of these specific fields agencies with operational independence have been established to provide expert, impartial advice in which the public can have confidence.

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

3. The Government has created an independent Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) to examine and report publicly on the sustainability of the public finances and to provide an annual ‘Fiscal Sustainability Report’, assessing the long-term economic and fiscal impact of government decisions. This remit also calls for the OBR to investigate the impact of trends and policies on the public finances from a multitude of angles, including through forecasting, independent long-term projections up to fifty years ahead and balance sheet analysis.  The OBR is required in law to act objectively, transparently and impartially. The Government adopts the OBR fiscal and economic forecasts as the official forecasts for the Budget as well as the economic and fiscal basis for policy.

Analysis of Demographic Change

4. Population projections by age and sex are updated every two years for the UK and its constituent countries.  These project up to 100 years forward and incorporate the latest available mid-year population estimates and underlying assumptions regarding future fertility, mortality and migration. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) also produces 25 year population projections for all local authorities and clinical commissioning groups in England by age and sex.  Population projections are used by central and local government and other organisations in planning and policy formation and they ensure that users can work on consistent assumptions.

Climate Modelling

5. The Met Office is already a world-leading center of expertise on both weather and long-run climate modelling.  Plans were announced in October to invest further in this capability by building one of the most powerful supercomputers in the world, able to perform more than 16,000 trillion calculations per second.  This will help the UK to predict more effectively disruptive weather events such as flooding, strong winds, fog and heavy snowfall, as well as strengthening the Met Office’s climate change research and domestic and international collaborations.

Specialist Support from the Centre

6. The centre of government provides support on cross-government issues including: the work of the Horizon Scanning Programme and the Government Office for Science; contingency planning and crisis response services, which are provided by the National Security Secretariat; Civil Contingencies Secretariat; and long-term and medium intelligence assessments produced by the Joint Intelligence Committee and Joint Intelligence Organisation.

Horizon Scanning Programme             

7. The Government has recently strengthened its approach to strategic thinking and horizon scanning. It committed to a cross-government review of its horizon scanning capability, looking at how departments make use of horizon scanning and assessing the current capability and structure of the Civil Service to anticipate risk and identify opportunities over the medium-to-long term. The Jon Day review (2013) made recommendations on how best to enable effective, shared strategic analysis across government on the future challenges facing the UK, and subsequently a central horizon scanning co-ordination team was established, hosted jointly by GO-Science and the Cabinet Office.

8. One major focus of Government’s horizon-scanning work has been to develop insight into those emerging technologies with the potential to disrupt the status quo over the next 5-10 years and beyond, as it is thought that emerging technologies will have the potential to transform the policy environment and delivery of public services, from health and education to transportation and energy generation and storage.  The Horizon Scanning Programme established a ‘Community of Interest’ across 28 government organisations and has concluded a joint analysis of the top emerging technologies that could have the most impact on the UK. Working with external experts in industry and academia and through consultation with its network of departmental Chief Scientific Advisers, the Government is now assessing the implications of these technologies on departments and developing policy recommendations for Ministers.

Government Office for Science

9. The Government Office for Science, led by Sir Mark Walport, the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, ensures that government policies and decisions are informed by the best scientific evidence and strategic long-term thinking. Foresight projects use the latest scientific evidence and futures analysis to address complex issues and provide strategic options to inform decisions that need to be taken now, and over the longer term.

10. The Foresight Programme is currently investigating two major areas in depth. The first of these is the future of ageing in the UK. The number of older people in the UK is projected to increase significantly over the coming decades, impacting society as a whole. The Foresight Future of Ageing Project is considering options that will improve the quality of life for older people and enable society to flourish with an increasingly ageing population.

11. The second area is the future of cities in the UK. This project is taking a long-term look at how UK cities can best contribute to economic growth over the coming decades, taking into consideration wellbeing, equity and social inclusion which are all vitally important for cities and their citizens.

National Security Secretariat and Civil Contingencies Secretariat

12. The National Security Secretariat leads on work with government departments on National Security Strategy and the Strategic Defence and Security Review for the UK. More broadly, the National Security Secretariat coordinates advice and policy analysis across government in support of the National Security Council, the Prime Minister, Deputy Prime Minister and National Security Adviser. The National Security Council is the forum for collective Ministerial discussion of the Government’s objectives in all aspects of the UK’s security (both domestic and international) and how best to deliver them.

13. The Civil Contingencies Secretariat - part of the wider National Security Secretariat - is responsible for improving the UK’s ability to absorb, respond to and recover from emergencies. It does so through four areas of work; risk assessment, planning and preparation, response and recovery and building a resilient society.

14. The Secretariat sits at the centre of government, with strong links to other departments, in order to assess disruptive civil challenges to the UK in the short, medium and long term.

15. For medium-term risks over the next five years, the Government monitors the most significant emergencies that could result in harm to human welfare; casualties; damage to property; essential service and disruption to everyday life in the UK. The National Risk Assessment informs the publicly available National Risk Register, last published in July 2013. The Civil Contingencies Secretariat also makes available information in the form of planning assumptions so that emergency planners and the essential services can plan for the risks identified.

16. For long-term risks, over the next five to 20 years, the National Security Risk Assessment identifies, assesses and prioritises major disruptive risks, which seriously threaten UK national security interests. It combines the most concerning domestic risks from the National Risk Assessment and risks to UK interests overseas. Work on the next National Security Risk Assessment has now begun and it will inform priorities and set strategy for future years.

Joint Intelligence Committee

17. The Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) and the Joint Intelligence Organisation (JIO) are responsible to the Prime Minister for providing assessed intelligence support to No 10, the NSC and decision making across Government on foreign, security and defence policy. The JIC’s role is to produce objective, cross-departmental, all sources assessments, bringing together secret intelligence, diplomatic reporting and open source material. It does so for current events and operations but also looks ahead to identify potential risks, and to provide HMG with early warning. In recent years the JIC’s scope has been expanded to cover a range of domestic and transnational security threats such as organised crime and regular assessments of countries at risk of instability. The JIO also manages the Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment initiatives to build up a professional cadre of intelligence analysts.

Departmental Capability

18. A number of departments and agencies have strengthened their own capability. Many of the most significant trends (mentioned above) that will challenge government over the coming decades are already integrated within the mainstream of departmental capability.

19. For example, the identification of demographic and climate change has led to major responses across several Government departments, including:

• Demographics and Pensions: The Independent Pensions Commission, established by DWP in 2002, set out the major long-term challenges to the pensions system from an ageing population.  The Government has introduced a series of reforms to help people save more and have fuller working lives so that they can enjoy a level of retirement income that meets their expectations. Through automatic enrolment, one of the biggest private pensions reforms in 70 years, we have already started to reverse the fall in membership of workplace pension schemes.  The Government is now also providing people with freedom and choice in what to do when they have accumulated a pension pot, and provide for guaranteed independent guidance for people making those choices.  Private saving is underpinned by the introduction of a single, simple, decent pension, to get the vast majority of people clear of means-testing, and to provide a firm foundation for retirement saving and a ‘triple lock’ for the basic State Pension providing protection for pensioners. 

• Demographics and Health.  Following the independent Dilnot Commission the Government committed to reform the social care funding system to protect people from large costs if they enter care.  The Better Care Fund will invest more that £5bn in community based services to avoid unnecessary hospital admissions and reduce pressures on acute services.  Government is investing to improve services for the growing numbers of people with dementia, increasing the diagnosis rate and investing more in research.  The Care Act addresses the increasing importance of carers by giving people and their carers more control over care and support.

• Climate change – reducing carbon emissions.  In 2008 the UK put in place the Climate Change Act which creates a framework of five year carbon budgets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% (from the 1990 baseline), by 2050. DECC works with other departments across Whitehall to manage delivery of this target including putting in place carbon budgets and delivering emissions reduction policies to meet targets. We have so far set the first four carbon budgets in law, and the 2011 Carbon Plan sets out proposals for achieving the emissions reductions committed to in the first four carbon budgets, on a pathway consistent with meeting the 2050 target. Within Government, a National Emissions Target Board provides Permanent Secretary level oversight of carbon budgets and national climate policy.  Externally, we established the independent Committee on Climate Change to advise on emissions targets and to hold Government to account on progress.

• Climate change – building resilience to climate risk. Since 2012, the Environment Agency has provided a Climate Ready Support Service for England to help the public sector, businesses and other organisations to adapt to the changing climate.   As required by the Climate Change Act, we publish a Climate Change Risk Assessment and a National Adaptation Programme report every five years (published first in 2012 and 2013 respectively) which set out the most pressing climate risks and the policy framework to address them.  The Committee on Climate Change was established to advise Government every five years on the risks and reports to Parliament every two years on progress with adaptation.  No other country has yet established an equivalent legal framework for adaptation that includes independent scrutiny of progress.

WHAT ARE THE PLANNED IMPROVEMENTS AND CHANGES NEEDED TO MEET FUTURE CHALLENGES?

20. Building on the work described above, the Civil Service is continuing to strengthen its departmental capability and develop its specialised skills. For example the implementation of the Civil Service Capabilities Plan; the development of Futures Techniques and; developing readiness for futures events.

The Civil Service Capabilities Plan

21. The Civil Service Capabilities Plan[1] (April 2013) was launched to ensure that all civil servants have the right skills for the future. It identifies capability areas for improvement (digital, project management, commercial and leadership), which will enable the Civil Service to deliver better public services and be more prepared for upcoming challenges. By up-skilling our staff and identifying the key areas that they need to strengthen, the Civil Service can improve its capacity to deal with potentially difficult and challenging scenarios in the future.

22. In addition to identifying the skills gaps across the Civil Service, the Civil Service Capabilities Plan aims to put in place actions to build internal capabilities for current civil servants through learning and development. Actions from the plan include:

• accessing talent from the richest available talent pool, from a wide range of backgrounds.
• investing in individuals while expecting them to take responsibility for their own careers, acquiring the skills that they need to perform effectively in their work: and
• making better use of the specialist expertise that already exists through greater sharing across departments.

23. future leaders will be skilled in areas that are crucial to delivering the Government’s future agenda

24. The Civil Service Reform Progress Report (2014) prioritised the need to develop and improve the collective leadership of the Civil Service so that leaders have a shared vision that resonates at all levels of the Civil Service.             

Building Capability in Futures Techniques

25. Capability development has been a significant focus for the Horizon Scanning Programme and the team has been working with departments to develop horizon scanning capability across government, making the tools and techniques of horizon scanning a central element of open policy-making. A toolkit based on current best practice and tested with expert practitioners inside and outside of government was published in July 2014. It has since been downloaded over 1,500 times and is helping policy, strategy and analyst officials to conduct futures analysis and ensure it has real impact. This will be iteratively improved as futures techniques develop and change in response to new methods and technologies.

26. The Horizon Scanning Programme Team has also launched training courses for all Civil Servants on ‘Horizon Scanning For Strategy and Policy Development’, and is developing a framework for procuring quality assured horizon scanning services from outside Government. This will go live in early 2015.

27. Continuing to emphasise horizon scanning (whilst also recognising its limits) will also help ensure that we have quality plans in place for different challenges the Government may face in the 21st Century. As stated in the written evidence submitted by HM Government for the Science and Technology Select Committee Inquiry into Government Horizon Scanning “Horizon scanning is not about predicting exactly what will happen in the future, but exploring a range of potential future scenarios to better understand uncertainties and ensure that policies are resilient to different future environments.”

28. This view was reinforced by the Minister for Government Policy during his evidence session for the Science and Technology Committee enquiry into Government Horizon Scanning, on 22 January 2014: “We are not picking [industrial] winners, nor are we predicting the future with certainty. We are trying to identify trends that are certainly happening in the short term, looking at the extent of the possibility that they may develop further in the long term, and making sure the Departments have a flexible strategy, adjusting over time to deal with those things, that is rational in the light of the opportunities.”

Developing readiness for futures events

29. The cross-government National Resilience Capability Programme, led by the Civil Contingencies Secretariat, aims to improve the capability of the UK to respond to and recover from the full range of civil emergencies.  It does this by building capability to deal with the consequences that are common to most types of emergencies, regardless of whether those emergencies are caused by accidents, natural hazards or man-made threats.  This approach ensures a good degree of readiness to both predicted and unforeseen risks.

30. Capability to respond to emergencies encompasses a number of interdependent and interrelated factors including appropriate numbers and types of personnel, the right types of equipment and supplies, relevant and sufficient training and exercising, and clear plans.

31. The purpose of the National Resilience Capability Programme is to identify, challenge and assess the current levels of capability in each response area.  Information on capability is collected through:

1. lead Government Departments,
2. the Resilience and Emergencies Division in the Department of Communities and Local Government, and
3. the National Capability Survey, an online survey that takes place every two years and is completed by around 800 organisations with legal responsibilities to support resilience.

32. The programme is working through a structured process to improve our picture of current readiness, in order to identify gaps and areas of duplication which can help departments decide where best to target finite resource.

November 2014