Written evidence submitted by Professor Sarah Birch

and Professor Paul Whitely (VUK 08)

Electoral Turnout, Public Opinion and Voting at 16

[Prof. Sarah Birch, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ

Prof. Paul Whiteley, Department of Government, University of Essex, Colchester CO4 3SQ]

Executive summary

Lowering the age of electoral majority to 16 has been suggested as a possible means of reinvigorating electoral democracy and raising turnout levels among young people. Yet there has been limited evidence presented for the claimed impact of such a measure or for its popularity among the general public This submission examines comparative evidence together with data from a July 2013 national survey to assess (a) the likely impact on turnout of lowering the voting age to 16 at Westminster elections; and (b) public attitudes toward the age of electoral majority.

The evidence presented here suggests that:

• Voting at 16 would be likely to increase youth turnout in the short term
• Voting at 16 could well increase overall turnout in the medium- to long-term
• Most people do not have strong views on voting at 16 
• Younger—but not the youngest—people, men, working class and lower income persons, self-identified members of the ethnic majority and Scots tend to be most favourably disposed towards lowering the voting age.
• If Britain were to introduce voting at 16 for Westminster elections, there would probably not be significant opposition, and support for the measure would probably increase over time.

I  Introduction

1.1 For centuries the United Kingdom has been a world leader in franchise reform and it was one of the first states to enact universal enfranchisement. In 1969, it was also the first major democracy to lower the voting age to 18.  Now 45 years later, debate is raging about a further lowering of the age of political majority to 16 as a means of reinvigorating youth participation in politics

1.2 Internationally, there have been voting-age reductions or trials of such reforms in a wide variety of countries including Argentina, Austria, Brazil, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Israel, Nicaragua, Norway, Switzerland and U.S. states of Massachusetts and Maryland.

1.3 Drawing on comparative evidence together with data from a national survey conducted in July 2013, we examine two questions: (a) the impact of voting at 16 on electoral turnout and (b) public attitudes toward voting at 16.

II How would voting at 16 affect turnout?

2.1 Most of the available political science evidence suggests that young people aged 16 and 17 are more likely to vote than 18-year-olds, due to the former age group’s greater integration into institutions such as family and school.[1] Related research suggests that voting is habit-forming, such that voting in one election makes people significantly more likely to vote in subsequent ones.[2] Moreover, if people vote in the first election for which they are eligible, they are more likely to continue voting throughout their lives.[3]

2.2 Comparative evidence substantiates these claims. Following the reduction of the voting age to 16 in Austria, participation rates among 16 and 17 year olds were comparable to those of the electorate at large. Moreover, turnout decreased across the 16 to 20 age range.[4]  In a trial that involved reducing the voting age in local elections to 16 in a selection of Norwegian municipalities, turnout among 16 and 17 year olds was higher than is generally the case for first-time voters, and there is similar evidence from German Laender.[5]

2.3 Thus, available evidence suggests that reducing the voting age to 16 may help to alleviate youth abstention in the short term. The measure could well also increase overall turnout levels in the medium and long term.

III Public attitudes toward voting at 16

3.1 There is not much previous research on what voters in general think about the enfranchisement of sixteen year olds. [6] When reforms to reduce the voting age to 18 were introduced, there was quite limited support in most democratic states for the change. Similarly, an ICM poll carried out in the UK in 2003 on behalf of the Electoral Commission revealed that 78 per cent were against the idea of lowering the voting age to 16, and only 22 per cent supported the idea. Among people aged 18 to 24, the number in favour of a lower voting age was slightly higher, but it still only reached 33 per cent. Regarding younger groups, 48 per cent of 16 year olds and 47 per cent of 17 year olds favoured keeping the voting age at 18, with only 35 per cent of 16 year olds and 27 per cent of 17 year olds supporting lowering it to 16.[7] Similarly, a recent survey showed that only 36 per cent of Scots supported lowering the voting age to 16 for the forthcoming independence referendum.[8] It is important to make the point that this reform is not a very salient issue as far as voters are concerned.  They may oppose such a reform but they are unlikely to feel very strongly about the issue.

3.2 To gauge contemporary attitudes towards changing the voting age, we draw on data from the British Election Study Continuous Monitoring Survey fielded in July 2013. [9] In this survey respondents were asked if they thought 'people should first become eligible to vote when they are: (a) 16 years of age, (b) 18 years of age, (c) 21 years of age, (d) 25 years of age'. 

3.3 Responses to this question summarised in Figure 1 indicate that less than one person in six (16.1 per cent) indicated that they wanted to lower the voting age to 16, with an exactly equal percentage wanting to raise it to age 21.  A small group (2.1 per cent) wanted to go further and increase it to 25 and 4.5 per cent said they 'didn't know'.  The dominant sentiment—expressed by over three respondents in five (61.1 per cent)—was to privilege the status quo and keep the voting age at 18.  Clearly, there was only weak support across the electorate as a whole for the idea of lowering the age of majority.

Figure 1 Distribution of public opinion regarding preferred age of majority

3.4 Examining views among different groups in the population, we see that people on lower incomes are more likely to favour lowering the voting age.  This is also true for men, members of the ethnic majority (self-described 'white British') and residents of Scotland (see Figure 2).

Figure 2  Percentages of various socio-demographic groups favouring lowering voting age to 16

3.6 Age is a factor of especial relevance when it comes to the voting age. Examining the data further while controlling statistically for a variety of other factors, we find that there is considerable support for lowering the voting age among younger groups in society, though those in the youngest age group surveyed (18-25) were less enthusiastic about the proposal than were slightly older groups (see Figure 3).

Figure 3  Relationship between age and preference for lowering voting age to 16

IV  Conclusion

4.1 Britain has a long and often celebrated history of progressively expanding the electoral franchise.  In recent years, the proposal has been advanced to build on this tradition by allowing 16 year-olds to vote.  Across Britain as a whole, the dominant sentiment—expressed by three persons in five—was to leave the voting age at 18, where it has been since 1969.

4.2 Sentiment in favour of the proposal is not evenly distributed across the population, however. Older, higher income and middle and upper class individuals are less favourably inclined towards the idea than are younger, lower income and working class persons.  However, analyses indicate that the age relationship is curvilinear, with support for the idea of reducing the age of majority first rising slightly and then falling sharply across older age groups. 

4.3 However, it is also worth noting that none of these relationships is especially strong. It thus appears that a proposal to lower the voting age to 16 would be only weakly influenced by the socio-demographics of the British electorate.  If franchise change is to occur, it will not happen because voters are enthusiastic about the idea, but they are unlikely to t oppose the measure strongly either. 

4.4 Previous experience with franchise reform suggests that were the voting age lowered, the new age would eventually rise in popularity and be difficult if not impossible to reverse; this means that in the absence of strong public opinion on the issue, there is considerable scope for statecraft in this area.

4.5 The support for voting at 16 voiced by Scots (see Figure 2) following the recent decision to allow 16 and 17 year olds to vote in the Scottish independence referendum supports this interpretation. Unless this factor is taken into consideration, it is difficult to explain why residence in Scotland is the factor most strongly associated with support for voting at 16. But once the recent franchise reform in Scotland is taken into consideration, the malleability of public opinion on this matter becomes evident.

4.6 In sum, if the voting age were lowered to 16, it is likely that there would be relatively little concerted opposition, and support for the measure would grow over time.

11 February 2014

References

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