Written evidence from Thomas Owen, Politics Student, The University of Sheffield (IRN0002)

1. This is a pivotal juncture in the history of UK - Iranian relations, it is a genuine opportunity to enact change and to improve a relationship which has been decidedly turbulent since the 1979 Iranian revolution. Whilst there is a recognition that Britain’s relationship with Iran needs to improve, and that a thawing in relations could confer many benefits, the UK government should proceed with caution. There is reason to be optimistic, but Iran still poses a threat to British interests and to the stability of the Middle East.

2. The joint plan agreed by Iran and the EU 3 + 3 on November 24th 2013, does not achieve a great deal in itself, it is a rather modest interim agreement, it should be perceived as a precursor to what could be achieved should negotiations continue. It offers hope for the future, and the success of any subsequent negotiations could result in greater stability in the Middle East as a whole. With a population of 77 million people, including many young people who are more favourably disposed to the West, Iran is arguably the most important Shia Muslim power, it exerts a great degree of influence in the Middle East as a whole, in countries such as Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, and the UK and its allies cannot afford to ostracise it any longer. However there are a number of issues which at present preclude relations progressing more rapidly and which need to be addressed before another settlement can be reached.

3. The UK government should strive for rapprochement with Iran but not at the expense of compromising its own security or that of its allies in the Middle East, any future agreement with Iran should not be to the detriment of diplomatic relations with other nations in the region. Israel and Saudi Arabia both allies of the UK, are two of Iran’s most vociferous critics, indeed the latter rejected a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council in October, in protest at the failure to find a resolution to the conflict in Syria, a conflict in which Iran is supportive of  President Assad. The UK must not alienate allies such as Saudi Arabia, as this could have a destabilising effect on the entire region and possibly even influence the situation in Afghanistan where Britain has been so heavily involved.

4. It may seem somewhat sanctimonious for the UK and the other members of the UN Security Council to repeatedly lecture Iran on the perils of nuclear weapons, as they are the countries which are already in possession of such weaponry, which gives them a distinct advantage in conflict situations and acts as an effective deterrent to attack. However, there is a distinction to be made, it is almost inconceivable that the UK or the other members of the UN Security Council would actually deploy their nuclear weapons except perhaps in retaliation, this is evidenced by the fact that nuclear weapons have not been utilised since the conclusion of World War II, despite moments of high tension during the Cold War, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis. There is an understanding that the nations which are currently in possession of nuclear weapons will only use them as a last resort, there can be no such assurances with Iran, which is far more volatile internally, this erratic behaviour and uncertainty regarding Iran’s motives are precisely why it must not be permitted to increase uranium production beyond its current level.

5. An issue which appears to have been largely overlooked is the internal complexities of the Iranian political system. President Rouhani’s election was greeted with optimism by many in the West, as the beginning of a more moderate phase in diplomatic relations with Iran. Indeed the new President has made overtures towards the West and is preferable to his predecessor, the strident hardliner President Ahmadinejad. However, there appears to be a misunderstanding by some as to who wields power within Iran, real power lies not with the President, but with the Supreme Leader the Ayatollah Khamenei who is far more dogmatic, and hostile to the West. President Rouhani has only ascended to the presidency because he made it onto an approved list of candidates vetted by the Supreme Leader. The UK and its allies should be wary of the influence that the Supreme Leader exerts when conducting negotiations with Iran, as ultimately he is the individual who will make the final decision. Whilst it is encouraging that he has sanctioned these initial negotiations, he may possess ulterior motives and may revoke his support for the agreement.

6. Another Concern for the UK government should be Iran’s foreign policy and its pernicious involvement in other nations in the Middle East. Iran currently supports President Assad, who stands accused of committing war crimes, in the Syrian conflict in both a military and a pecuniary capacity, without Iranian support it is likely that President Assad would have been deposed of quite some time ago. The UK government should not accept continued Iranian support of the Assad regime, they should use any future talks to persuade Iran to withdraw its support for Assad, or at least to extract some concessions from him. Iran should have a vested interest in a peaceful resolution to the Syrian crisis, as the extremist Sunni groups which are emerging in rebel held areas pose a threat to its own security. Britain should also refuse to tolerate Iran’s vicarious involvement in Lebanon through its proxy Hezbollah, which it uses to destabilise the country and provoke Israel. Iranian foreign policy should be a major concern for the British government, and it is one of the reasons why relations should not develop too rapidly.

7. In addition to the foreign policy of Iran, US foreign policy should also be taken into consideration by the UK government. As the world’s hegemonic power and Iran’s sworn enemy, the USA will be influential in any agreement reached with Iran. However this does not mean that the UK should be unduly influenced by US policy towards Iran. Barack Obama is now a second term president, facing domestic difficulties, he has like many before him turned to foreign policy to try and make an impact during his final years in office, and he wishes to avoid being labelled a ‘Lame Duck’ president, as was the case with his predecessor George W Bush. The UK should not be led astray by any future attempts from President Obama to create a legacy by reaching an agreement with Iran, if it is not in the interest of the UK government to do so. It should also be noted that the US is greatly influenced by its relationship with Israel, which largely dictates its policy in the region, the UK is not subject to such constraints and should not let them influence its approach towards Iran or the Middle East as a whole.

8. Finally, the UK government must scrutinise Iran’s intentions and assess whether or not they are being sincere. Iran has been accused of ‘Double Dealing’ in the past and the UK should ensure that the latest round of negotiations and any future agreements are not merely a ruse, which will allow Iran to continue enhancing its nuclear capabilities whilst economic sanctions are relaxed. There should be the prospect of a comprehensive nuclear deal at some point in the future, but the UK must not make too many concessions in order to secure this prize, Iran will have to make significant progress in several key areas before an agreement can be reached. A relaxation of economic sanctions whilst receiving little in return from Iran would represent only a pyrrhic victory, it is essential that there is more meaningful change first.  

December 2013