FPQ0094

Written evidence submitted by the Sutton Trust

The Sutton Trust

The Sutton Trust champions social mobility through programmes, research and policy influence. Since 1997 and under the leadership of founder Sir Peter Lampl, the Sutton Trust has worked to address low levels of social mobility in the UK. The Trust works to improve social mobility from birth to the workplace so that every young person – no matter who their parents are, what school they go to, or where they live – has the chance to succeed in life.

The strengths and weaknesses of the current system of post-16 qualifications, with reference to A Levels, T Levels, BTECs and apprenticeships, in preparing young people for work or further and higher education.

The Sutton Trust has long highlighted the need for high-quality qualifications which prepare young people for work or further study and we welcome a renewed focus on this. There are some strengths in the post-16 system, but many areas for improvement too.

Apprenticeships are a vital part of the post-16 qualification landscape, preparing young people for the workplace and allowing them to earn while they learn. However, currently there are far too few apprenticeships, and far too few young people from disadvantaged backgrounds accessing these opportunities, particularly at the higher levels. There are roughly only 2,000 degree apprenticeships available each year to school leavers, compared to over 300,000 undergraduate places. Recent Sutton Trust research has highlighted that the majority of degree apprenticeships are not supporting people into new careers, with 68% of apprentices aged 25-54 surveyed already working for their employer.[1] These apprentices were also more likely to have come from higher socio-economic backgrounds. We also previously found that the proportion of degree apprentices who are older and more affluent has doubled, and only a fifth of degree apprentices are aged 20 or under. [2] While the growth of degree apprenticeships over the past 5 years is to be welcomed, the proportion going to young and disadvantaged apprentices is moving in the wrong direction. This seriously imperils the ability of degree apprenticeships to contribute positively to social mobility. Under the current system, many young people from disadvantaged backgrounds aren’t able to access the benefits of an apprenticeship which helps young people to prepare for the world of work. Much more must be done to ensure that there are more opportunities for young people to take on apprenticeships through a significant expansion of high-quality provision, focussed on social mobility and sectors of the economy that are expanding.

As well as issues on the supply-side of apprenticeships, careers advice at post-16 can also act as a barrier to young people accessing these opportunities. Careers advice can be fragmented and complex for young people to navigate, and too many young people do not know enough about apprenticeships and the career prospects they can offer them. Recent research by the Trust found that a quarter of young apprentices found the application process difficult to navigate, and 14% of young apprentices received no information or outreach before starting in their role.[3] While teachers discussing apprenticeships with their students is on the rise (47% of young people reported that their teacher had discussed an apprenticeship with them in 2019, compared to 31% in 2013)[4] – there is still much more work to do to ensure that all young people are made aware of the benefits of undertaking an apprenticeship.

All schools and colleges should be supported to provide high-quality careers advice on all options that are available to young people at post-16, including apprenticeship opportunities. Employers should also proactively work with schools to provide opportunities to gain understanding of apprenticeship routes. Ensuring that the Baker Clause requirements are met in all schools and colleges is also key in the transition to post-16 options and ensuring that all young people are aware of the options available to them. The Trust has recently published a guide for employers and universities on how best to deliver effective outreach which can be accessed at the following link: https://www.suttontrust.com/our-research/apprenticeship-outreach/.

Careers advice for young people who wish to do A Levels at post-16 could also be improved. A Level subject choices have significant impacts on the options available to a young person at 18, so it is essential that high-quality support, advice and guidance is in place long before the point of decision-making. All young people must have access to good information on which A Level subjects they might need to get onto different universities and courses, and have access to a range of diverse options and subject choices.

Another area where the post-16 system could improve in terms of preparing young people for the workplace is through the development of essential life skills. The Trust would like to see further investment in such skills throughout education. During the pandemic, many young people will have missed out on vital development of essential life skills, such as confidence, motivation and resilience. These skills are associated with better academic outcomes and better prospects in the workplace, and there is an increasing emphasis on their value, with 94% of employers saying that life skills are at least as important as academic results for the success of young people.[5] It is crucial that young people are supported to develop these skills which are vital for accessing the workplace.

There are also some strengths in the system. Previous Sutton Trust research looked at outcomes for young people attending further education colleges and sixth forms. It found that once the characteristics of the pupils who attend FE colleges compared to sixth forms are taken into account, FE colleges perform strongly for disadvantaged pupils in terms of progression to higher education.[6] The research also found that there are no differences in the earnings outcomes between those who attend FE and schools at age 16, controlling for background and attainment of the individual and the institutions’ intake. However, at both FE colleges and schools there are significant gaps in earnings outcomes between those eligible for free school meals and their more advantaged classmates. The post-16 sector has been historically underfunded and additional funding could go some way to address these gaps. The Sutton Trust would like to see an extension of the pupil premium to students aged 16-19. Colleges and sixth forms could use this funding to invest in high quality CPD, incentives to recruit and retain specialist teachers, support for students resitting English and maths GCSEs, and interventions which support transitions into careers and further study. This is more important than ever when the incoming cohorts in post-16 education have experienced such huge disruption to their learning over three separate school years. The Trust, in association with UCL has launched the COVID Social Mobility and Opportunities (COSMO) Study, a unique national longitudinal study, to explore the impacts of the pandemic on the cohort who transitioned into post-16 in September 2021.[7]

As the last few years have shown, assessment is also a key element of the post-16 picture. It is important that all post-16 qualifications are respected and have currency with universities and employers. Facilitating progression, whether to higher education, further education, apprenticeships or the workplace, should be the central goal of this phase of education. Universities in particular should make decisions as often as possible based on public examinations and coursework set in qualifications, rather than setting their own bespoke tests, which are more likely to benefit those from well-resourced backgrounds.

The benefits and challenges the Government’s proposed changes to Level 3 qualifications would bring, with reference to any implications for BTECs and routes into apprenticeships.

The Sutton Trust broadly welcomes the government’s aim to create high-quality, employer-led qualifications which lead to good outcomes for young people. However, we are concerned about the unintended impacts of a move to a two-route system of A Levels and T Levels on disadvantaged young people, who are more likely to be taking the qualifications which are currently being de-funded.

We are also concerned about the timings of this reform. The Trust believes that there should be more time to allow T Levels to bed into the system before alternative qualifications are de-funded (especially those proven to be a good route into the labour market). It will take time to establish whether young people who would have previously taken up a lower-quality level 3 qualification will instead take up a T Level. Careful consideration must be given to ensuring that T Levels are accessible to disadvantaged young people, while also being respected by employers and universities. The work needed to do this is substantial, and the Trust would welcome a further delay in cutting high quality BTECs and other qualifications until we can be sure that T Levels are an appropriate alternative, to ensure that a group of young people are not being locked out of achieving a level 3 qualification.

It is vital that all young people have a diverse range of high-quality post-16 options available to them, and the proposed changes may impact the options available to disadvantaged young people in particular (further detail on the impacts on disadvantaged groups can be found in the section below).

We are also concerned about the impact on the changes on routes into apprenticeships. De-funding BTECs and other qualifications will take away a well-established pathway into apprenticeships for many young people. We are concerned that the changes may further decease apprenticeship starts for young people, who already face challenges in accessing these opportunities. Consideration must be given to ensuring that young people do not face any further barriers to accessing apprenticeships.

Any major changes to the post-16 system must also be accompanied by clear guidance and support for young people and teachers.

The extent to which the Government’s review of level 3 qualifications will impact disadvantaged groups, students from minority ethnic backgrounds, students known to the care system, and students with special educational needs or disabilities, and what measures might be put in place to mitigate any negative impacts

While we welcome a renewed focus on high-quality qualifications which prepare young people for the workplace, we were concerned by the government’s initial impact assessment which showed that young people eligible for Free School Meals are highly represented on the qualifications that will be removed and so may struggle to achieve a level 3 qualification in the future. As above, a further delay in de-funding qualifications would be welcome. If qualifications are to be de-funded, it is vital that the government implements a significant programme of support to ensure that young people from all backgrounds are able to access T Levels, and that a managed transition period is in place for qualifications that are de-funded. If a group of disadvantaged students are unable to access these qualifications, there will likely be serious knock-on effects to accessing further study, apprenticeships and the labour market. It is essential that such students do not fall through the cracks. In a particularly uncertain time with many young people having experienced significant periods of lost learning, it is more important than ever that no one is locked out of further study or work. Ensuring that disadvantaged young people do not lose out must be a key focus of government in transitioning to a new landscape of level 3 qualifications.

It is also important that all young people are able to develop the skills they need to set them up for success in a reformed post-16 landscape. The Trust broadly welcomes the potential impacts on accessibility of the removal of maths and English exit requirements for T Levels. However, there must be no let-up in endeavours to make sure that T Levels are adequately progressing learners with these basic skills. Work must also be undertaken by the government to communicate to employers and universities that T Levels have provided young people with the knowledge and skills (including basic levels of literacy and numeracy which are the cornerstones of any career) that they need to succeed in further study and the workplace.

It is also crucial that, before de-funding alternative qualifications, universities accept T Levels for entry. Recent reports highlight that less than half of universities will accept T Levels for entry this year,[8] so there is significant work to be done to ensure that young people taking T Levels are able to access higher education. The progression pathways for young people taking up T Levels must also be made clearer, with all students provided with high-quality information on the routes available to them from taking a T Level.

The benefits and disadvantages of introducing a baccalaureate system in post-16 education that allows students to take a variety of subjects, including both academic and vocational options.

Under the current system, young people are forced to specialise relatively early when making their post-16 choices. A baccalaureate system would encourage a more broad and balanced approach to learning and would allow for students to study a range of subjects for a longer time. A baccalaureate system may also help to put vocational courses on a more equal footing with academic options and help to improve parity of esteem if young people are able to mix-and-match both academic and vocational options. Under such a system, it would be crucial to consider how A Levels and T Levels could work together and ensure that such a system would be trusted by universities and employers. A baccalaureate system, if introduced, could also help with crucial skills gaps in the UK’s workforce, particularly in technical careers, in comparison with other countries, by ensuring that more young people are developing their maths skills up to age 18.

The Trust believes it is worth looking in detail at the benefits and disadvantages of introducing a baccalaureate system; however, given the many reforms to the education system currently being implemented or considered, and the disruption of the pandemic to schools and colleges, the timing of introducing any further changes must be carefully considered. The introduction of any post-16 baccalaureate would also require major changes at GCSE, to ensure a smooth transition, so would be a significant reform. It is vital that those who would leave academic education at 16 have an appropriate qualification.

Alongside any changes to the curriculum and qualifications framework, we should also think about how best to assess students, including through the appropriate mix of properly-moderated teacher assessments and exams.

The benefits and disadvantages of a post-qualifications admission system.

Whilst there have been substantial improvements in university participation among students from disadvantaged backgrounds in recent years, the gap between low-income students and their better-off peers remains significant, particularly at the most selective universities. A move to a post-qualification admissions system may help to address some issues with the current admissions processes, however such a substantial change must be carefully considered before implementation to avoid unintended consequences.

Under the current admissions system, young people make potentially life-changing decisions far in advance of university entry, based on predicted grades. Previous Sutton Trust research found that the vast majority of these grades are incorrect, with 9% of students underpredicted and 75% overpredicted. Underprediction particularly impacts high achieving disadvantaged students, and up to 1,000 such students are underpredicted each year.[9] These students may then not apply to selective universities, and if they do, may not receive offers based on their grades. While a large proportion of disadvantaged students are also over-predicted each year, this may not be in their best interests either, if they end up on a course which does not suit them.

There are some serious challenges to implementing post-qualification applications however, including impacts on timetables and support for students, which need careful consideration before implementation and would require substantial changes in the information, advice and guidance provided to young people. Ideally, if PQA is enacted, the Trust would like to see results day take place while students are still in school, so that teachers are able to provide essential support for students – support which is even more crucial for disadvantaged young people. UCL have proposed a system in which the exam and marking process could be condensed so that students could make their applications during term-time, after exams (detail on this is available here)

The Trust firmly believes that moving to a post-qualification admissions system is not a silver bullet for improving access. Any change to the university admissions system must come as part of a broader strategy from the government and the sector to widen access, including wider and more ambitious use of contextual offers and a continued focus on outreach and building a diverse pipeline of applicants.

There are also other lighter touch interventions that could be made to improve the current system for disadvantaged groups. This could include explicitly encouraging aspirational or ‘stretch’ options in the application form, and reserved places in the present adjustment period for those from underrepresented backgrounds who perform above expectations in their exams.

International good practice examples of systems for post-16 education and qualifications.

Other countries, particularly Germany and Switzerland, offer effective and respected apprenticeship programmes, in terms of both the quantity and quality of provision, and offer excellent examples of best practice.

Our research in 2015 highlighted that Germany consistently qualified over twice as many apprentices aged 15-19 as the UK did in total.[10] Germany specifically focuses on key sectors with high future economic need rather than having a broad offer, with engineering and IT apprenticeships accounting for over 50% of all opportunities.

In Switzerland, there is equal prestige between the apprenticeship route and the traditional university pathway and over 70% of young people complete an apprenticeship after school, with 40% of business taking on apprentices. The scale and breadth of their established apprenticeships play a part in their low NEET rate (6% vs 12% in UK). Another area of best practice seen in Switzerland is the flexibility that students have in switching between vocational and academic courses. Programmes account for what they have learnt from either course, and this level of flexibility across both the academic and the vocational is something our apprenticeship system could learn from.

January 2020