Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser, Department of Health and Social Care – Supplementary written evidence (INQ0081)
A letter from Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser, Department of Health and Social Care to the Committee following an evidence session on Tuesday 15 October 2019
Thank you for inviting me to the House of Lords Science and Technology Committee Inquiry on ageing.
Some of the point I made verbally are a lot clearer graphically. I therefore enclose, in case they are useful to the Committee, 7 slides.
Slides 1-2 demonstrate the historical and ongoing concentration in age of mortality.
Slides 3-5 show the difference between urban and rural ageing.
Slide 6 shows the very different demographic pyramids for the UK and some of our neighbours and Slide 7 shows the global projections. These countries will all be needing medical, nursing and social care support.
I am of course happy to add any extra information or explanation the Committee needs.
Professor Chris Whitty
21 October 2019
Slide 1. Mortality increasingly concentrated by age- this has been a long process. Proportion dying at different ages. 1850-2010. (ONS)
Slide 2. Change in mortality 2001-2017 by age group since 2001. There has been minimal improvement in mortality for those over 90, but substantial improvement in those 75-85. So mortality is continuing to concentrate. (ONS)
Slide 3. UK demography rural and urban (ONS). Urban much younger.
Slide 4. Projected demographic pyramid of Northumberland (L) and Newcastle in 2037. The number over 90 is the most important here. This is typical for UK cities and their rural hinterlands.
Slide 5. As a result there will be a much more rapid rise in older people in rural areas than urban ones. Population 85 and over: 1992, 2015, 2033 (ONS).
Slide 6. Germany (L), Italy, Spain (R) demographic pyramids. UK bottom. These countries will hit a demographic wall much faster than the UK.
Slide 7. Global population over 60 2015-2050. ONS.