Professor of Financial Economics, Imperial College, London Member of the Commission of the Irish Central Bank

2009-2015 Member of The Monetary Policy Committee, The Bank of England (May 2009- September 2015) and Professor of Economics Imperial College (on extended leave)

2004-2009 Chief UK Economist, Managing Director Morgan Stanley

Head of economic research at Morgan Stanley

2004-2009	Board member and Non Executive Director, The Financial Services Authority, London.
2003-2004	Author of the independent government review of the UK mortgage market – “The Miles Review”, undertaken at H.M. Treasury, London.
1996 - 2004	Professor of Economics, Imperial College, London.
1994 - 1996	Chief UK Economist, Merrill Lynch London
1993 - 1994	Economic Adviser to the Bank of England (While on sabbatical from the University of London)
1989 - 1993	Reader in Financial Economics, Birkbeck College, University of London.
1988 - 1989	Research Fellow at the Financial Markets Group, The London School of Economics:
1983-1989	Economist, Economics Division and Money Markets Division, The Bank of England
1981-1983	University College, Oxford While at Nuffield College Oxford I taught undergraduate economics and gave classes in mathematics for economists at University College, Oxford.

Other Affiliations

Chair of Executive Committee of the Institute for Fiscal Studies
President of Section F (Economics) of the British Science Association (BSA) for 2015
Council Member of the Royal Economic Society (2009-2015)

Centre For Economic Policy Research Fellow and Trustee
Governor of The Pensions Institute
Research Fellow of the CES-IFO group at Munich University
Member of the Research Excellence Framework (REF) panel for Economics 2014-15
Honorary fellow University of Swansea
Council member of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR)

Education and Qualifications

1989-92	PhD University of London: "Housing, Financial Liberalisation and Consumption"
1981-83	Nuffield College, Oxford, 1983 M.Phil Economics
1978-81	University College, Oxford (Scholarship), Politics, Philosophy and Economics (PPE) - 1st class honours
1972-78	The Bishop Gore School, De la Beche Road, Swansea

Current Research Interests: My research focuses on housing, financial markets, financial stability and banking and the interactions between financial markets and the wider economy.

The economics of mortgages and housing, and its links to saving and public policy, is an ongoing research interest. I am working with James Sefton on analysing house and land values across countries and over long horizons. Some of my recent research focuses on portfolio allocation, the optimal design of public and private pension arrangements and financial regulation. Analysis of the risk characteristics of household assets and liabilities is an integral part of this work and has close connections with the review I am undertook in 2003 and 2004 on the UK mortgage market for the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

At the Bank of England I worked on issues where I had direct responsibility - the setting of monetary policy. This remains a research area. My recent papers on the impact of changes in the central bank’s balance sheet reflect a major public policy issue facing most advanced economies. I am also working on how monetary and financial stability policies interact. My recent papers focus on the evolution of just and unjust components of overall wealth and incomes.

Forthcoming publications:

“The Half Life of Economic Injustice”, forthcoming Economics and Philosophy.

“UK House Prices and Three Decades of Decline in the Risk Free Real Interest Rate” with V Monro, forthcoming

Economic Policy.

“How fast should social restrictions be eased in England as COVID-19 vaccinations are rolled out?”, with M Stedman and A Heald, International Journal of Clinical Practice, Vol 75 , issue 7, July 2021

“Assessing the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus in the Absence of Mass Testing”, with Oscar Dimdore-Miles, forthcoming International Journal of Clinical Practice (volume 75, issue 4, April 2021).

Work in Progress:

“Limiting Mortgage Debt: Aggregate Demand Externalities and Housing Market Distortions” with Martina Fazio and Andrew Gimber.

“ Capital Requirements, Monetary Policy and the Fundamental Problem of Bank Risk Taking”, with Chuan Du. “Should central banks provide reserves via repos or outright bond purchases?”, with Jochen Schanz, earlier version

is CEPR Discussion Paper 10229, November 2014

“Interaction between Monetary Policy and regulatory capital requirements”, with Chuan Du, earlier version is CEPR Discussion Paper 10200, October 2014.

Public Lectures:

Imperial College Festival “How much will a house be worth in 10 years?”, May 2017, available at

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UeTmyYV1QU

Edinburgh University, January 2015: “What Can Monetary Policy Do?”, available at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/2015/791.aspx

Dallas Federal Reserve Conference, November 2013, keynote address “Housing, Leverage and Stability in the Wider economy”, available at “http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/2013/694.aspx

Institute for Policy Research Lecture, University of Bath, February 2013: “What should Monetary Policy Do?”, available at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/2013/636.aspx

Scottish Economic Society Annual Lecture, Edinburgh, September 2012: “Winding and Unwinding Extraordinary Monetary Policy” available at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/2012/598.aspx

North American Business Economists Lecture, Washington, March 2012: “Government Debt and Unconventional Monetary Policy”, March 2012

CEPR Public Policy Lecture, London, February 2011: “Monetary Policy in Extraordinary Times”. Available at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/2011/475.aspx

Selected Publications:

a). Articles in Academic Journals

“House Prices and Growth with Fixed Land Supply”, with James Sefton, The Economic Journal, vol 131, issue 636, May 2021, pages 1815-1848.

"Measurement Without Testing: Assessing the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus ", with Oscar Dimdore-Miles,

COVID Economics, volume 16, May 2020, pp 161-76.

"Stay at Home, Protect the National Health Service, Save Lives: A cost benefit analysis of the lockdown in the UK", with M Stedman and A Heald, International Journal of Clinical Practice, vol 75, issue 3, 2021.

“Living with Covid-19: Balancing Costs Against Benefits in the Face of the Virus” with Mike Stedman and Adrian Heald, The National Institute Economic Review, no 253, August 2020, pages 60-76.

“Housing, Leverage and Stability in the Wider Economy”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol 47, 2015. “Inflation, Employment and Monetary Policy: Objectives and Outcomes in the UK and US Compared,” Journal of

Money, Credit and Banking vol 46, October 2014, pages 155-167.

“Monetary Policy and Forward Guidance in the UK”, The Manchester School, Vol 82, Issue -777, pp 44-60.

“The Relevance or Otherwise of Central Bank Balance Sheets”, The Journal of International Economics, volume 92, pages 103-116, 2014.

“Optimal Bank Capital”, with Jing Yang and Gilberto Marcheggiano, The Economic Journal, vol 123, pages 1-37, March 2013.

“Optimal Portfolio Allocation for Corporate Pension Funds”, with David McCarthy, European Financial Management, vol 19, Issue 3, June 2013 pp 599-629.

"Population Density, House Prices and Mortgage Design", Scottish Journal of Political Economy, vol 59, November 2012, pp 444-467.

"Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy", with M Joyce, A Scott and D Vayanos, The Economic Journal, November 2012, vol 122, pp 271-289.

“The impact of Changing Demographics and Pensions on the Demand for Housing and Financial Assets”, with Ales Cerny and Lubomir Schmidt, Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 2010, volume 9, issue 03, pp. 393-420.

“Financial Innovation and European Housing and Mortgage Markets “ Oxford Review of Economic Policy” , vol 24, no 1 2008.

“Risk, Return and Portfolio Allocation under Alternative Pension Systems with Incomplete and Imperfect Financial Markets”, The Economic Journal, April 2006, pp 529-557. 2006.

“Incentives Information and Efficiency in the UK Mortgage Market, The Economic Journal, March 2005.

“Life on the Outside”, with David Barr and Francis Breedon, Economic Policy, volume 18, issue 37, October 2003. “Social Security Design in the UK – What is Optimal?”, with James Sefton, Fiscal Studies, vol 24, no 2, 2003, pages

121-151

“The Reform of Pension Systems: Winners and Losers Across the Generations in Germany and the Uk”, with Andreas Iben, Economica. Vol. 67, pp 203-28, May 2000

“Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy”, 1999, The Economic Journal, vol 109, no 452, pages 1-37.

“Risk Sharing and Transition Costs in the reform of pension Systems in Europe”, with Allan Timmermann,

Economic Policy, vol 29, pp253-286, October 1999.

“An International Study of Efficiency and Risk in Money Markets”, International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance”, Vol 1, No3, April 1998, pages 389-424.

“Financial Markets, Ageing and Social Welfare” Fiscal Studies, vol 18, no 2 pp 161-188 .May 1997.

"A Household Level Study of the Determinants of Income and Consumption", The Economic Journal, vol 107, no 440, pp 1-25, January 1997.

"Variation in Expected Stock Returns: Evidence on the Pricing of Equities from a Cross Section of UK Companies",

Economica, vol 63, pp 369-82, 1996.

“Testing for Short-Termism in the UK: Reply to Damant and Satchell”, The Economic Journal, vol 105, No. 432, pp 1224-1228. September 1995.

"Optimal Regulation of Deposit-Taking Financial Intermediaries", The European Economic Review. vol 39, No.

7, August, pp1365-1385. 1995

"UK Companies' Short-Term Financial Decisions: Evidence From Company Accounts Data", The Manchester School, LXII, pp 395-411., 1994

"Economic Issues in the Regulation of Mutual Financial Firms: The case of UK Building Societies", The Manchester School, LXII, pp 227-250, 1994.

"Testing for Short-Termism in the UK Stock Market", The Economic Journal, vol 103, No 421, pp 1379-1397, 1993.

"Time-Varying Risk Premia and Bias in the Foreign Exchange Market", Applied Financial Economics, 1993.

"House Prices, Consumption and Personal Sector Wealth: Some Conceptual and Empirical Issues", The Manchester School, LXI, pp 1-25, 1993.

"Measuring Efficiency and Risk in the Major Bond Markets", (with S G Hall), Oxford Economic Papers, vol 44, pp 67-93, 1992.

"Housing Markets, Consumption and Financial Liberalisation in the Major Economies", European Economic Review, vol 36, no 5, pp 1093-1128, 1992.

b). Books

“MACROECONOMICS: UNDERSTANDING THE GLOBAL ECONOMY"

with Andrew Scott and Francis Breedon, John Wiley, 2012.

"MACROECONOMICS: UNDERSTANDING THE WEALTH OF NATIONS"

with Andrew Scott, John Wiley, first edition August 2001, second edition 2005.

“THE ECONOMICS OF PUBLIC SPENDING”,

Oxford University Press 2003, Edited by D Miles, G Myles and I Preston

"HOUSING, FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THE WIDER ECONOMY",

John Wiley , November 1994

c). Government Reports:

“Valuing gilts – the way ahead Final Report of the Independent Reference Prices Review”, October 2016 http://www.dmo.gov.uk/documentview.aspx?docname=/gilts/press/prFinalReport.pdf&page=PriceProvision/Inform

ation

http://www.dmo.gov.uk/documentview.aspx?docname=/gilts/press/prLetter.pdf&page=PriceProvision/Information

“Independent Commission on Funding and Finance for Wales”, Final Report for the Welsh Assembly Government

July 2010; Interim Report, 2009.

“The UK Mortgage Market: Final Report and Recommendations” , HM Treasury, March 2004.

“The UK Mortgage Market: Information, Incentives and Pricing” (Interim Report), HM Treasury, December 2003.

d). Chapters in Edited Books

“Brexit, Financial Markets and the Wider Economy”, In The Changing Geography of Finance and Regulation in Europe, edited by Franklin Allen, 2017, European University Institute.

“After The Mess”, in After the Apocalypse: Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis, edited by Philip Collins and Peter Harrington, Demos, 2008.

“The Economics of Public Spending” (joint with G Myles and I Preston), chapter 1 of The Economics of Public Spending, edited by D Miles, G Myles and I Preston, Oxford University Press, 2003

“The Influence of Ageing on Capital Formation”, in Economic Policies for Aging Societies, edited by Horst Siebert, Springer, 2002.

“Should Monetary Policy be Different in a Greyer World?”, in Aging, Financial Markets and Monetary Policy, eited by Alan Auerbach and Heinz Hermann, Springer, 2002.

“Fundamental Economic Implications of EMU” in The Euro, edited by Paul Temperton, John Wiley, London, 1997.

“The UK and EMU” in The Euro, edited by Paul Temperton, John Wiley, London, 1997.

"Debt Retirement", in The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, edited by Murray Millgate and Peter Newman, Macmillan, London, 1992.

"European Financial Deregulation", in The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, edited by Murray Millgate and Peter Newman, Macmillan, London, 1992.

"The Regulation of Securities Business in the UK", in "The Economics of the London Financial Markets", edited by D Cobham, Longmans, London, 1992.

"A Market Based Approach to Modelling Bank Risk", in "Money and Financial Markets", edited by Mark Taylor, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1991.

"The Money Transmission Mechanism" (with J Wilcox) in "Surveys of Monetary Economics" edited by C Green and D LLewellyn, Basil Blackwell, (1991).

"Measuring the Risk of Financial Institutions' Portfolios: Some Suggestions for Alternative Techniques Using Share Prices" (with S G Hall) in "Economic Modelling and Policymaking in Banking and Finance" Chapman - Hall, (1990)

"What Determines the Bank Borrowing and Lending Decisions of UK Companies? Explanations Based on Aggregated and Disaggregated Data" (with C Green and G Chowdhury) in "Disaggregation in Economic Modelling" edited by T S Barker and M H Pesaran. Routledge, (1990).

"The Impact of Monetary Policy on Inflation: Modelling the UK Experience 1978-86" (with D Mackie and C Taylor) in "Policymaking with Macroeconomic Models" edited A Brittan , Gower Publishing, 1989.

e). Older Discussion Papers

“Time Preference and Fiscal Multipliers”, with Gilberto Marcheggiano, Bank of England Discussion Paper, January 2013.

“Optimal Portfolio Allocation for Corporate Pension Funds”, with David McCarthy, CEPR Discussion Paper 8198, January 2011.

“The Impact of Changing Demographics and Pensions on The Demand for Housing and Financial Assets” with A Cerny and L Schmidt, CEPR Discussion Paper, July 2005.

“Optimal Social Security Design”, with James Sefton, CEPR Discussion Paper, April 2002.

"The Influence of Ageing on Capital Accumulation", June 2001. (paper to be presented at Keil Week Conference, June 2001).

Miles, D. and Cerny , A (2001) "Risk, Return and Portfolio Allocation under Alternative Pension Systems with Imperfect Financial Markets" CEPR Discussion Paper 2779 (April).

“Funded and Unfunded Pension Systems: Risk, Return and Welfare:” CEPR Discussion Paper, January 2000. and

Centre for Economic Studies (Munich University) Discussion Paper January 2000. "Jeux sans Frontieres: the New Economic Geography and the New Europe" Merrill Lynch Special Report,

November 1999.

“The Reform of Pension Systems: Winners and Losers Across Generations”, Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper no 1943, August 1998.

“Fundamental Economic Implications of EMU”, Merrill Lynch Special Report, February 1998.

“Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy”, Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper, No 1762, December 1997.

“Demographics and Saving: Can We Reconcile the Evidence?”, Institute of Fiscal Studies Working Paper, 1997. “Brightness Visible: Housing, Building Societies and Credit Quality”, Merrill Lynch Special Report, November

1996.

“Trends in Saving in the UK”, Merrill Lynch Report, October 1995.

“The UK Mortgage Market to the End of the Century”, Merrill Lynch Special Report, April 1995. “A Single European Currency: Options for the UK”, Merrill Lynch Special Report, March 1995.

“Housing, Financial Markets and the Wider Economy”, Merrill Lynch Special Report, November 1994. “Predicting World Bond Returns: Evidence From the Past and Predictions for the Future”, Merrill Lynch Special

Report, July 1994.

"Inflation, Inflation Risks and Asset Returns", Bank of England Discussion Paper, No. 27, November 1994. "Consumption, Financial Liberalisation and Income Shocks - What Can We Learn from the UK?", Birkbeck

College Discussion Paper in Financial Economics", No 5 1993.

"The Predictability of UK Stock Returns: Evidence from a Panel of UK Companies", Birkbeck College Discussion Paper in Financial Economics, No 1, 1993.

"Recent Trends in World Bond Markets" (with S. G. Hall), Birkbeck College Discussion Paper in Financial Economics, No. 9, 1991.

"Financial Liberalisation, The Housing Market and the Current Account", Birkbeck College Discussion Papers in Financial Economics, No 6, 1990.

"A Simple Explanation for Bias in the Foreign Exchange Market", Birkbeck College Discussion Paper in Financial Economics No 1, (1990).

"Recent Developments in the Pattern of Interest Rates" Paper presented to the 1988 conference of central bank economists, Basle and Bank of England Discussion Paper No. 36 (1989).

"A GARCH in Mean Estimation of the Capital Asset Pricing Model" (with S G Hall and M P Taylor) London School of Economics Financial Markets Group Discussion Paper No. 34 and Bank of England Discussion Paper No. 31, September 1988.

"An Empirical Model of Companies Debt and Dividend Decisions: Evidence from Companies Accounts Data"

Bank of England Discussion Paper No. 28 May 1987.

"An Empirical Model of Companies Short Term Financial Decisions: Evidence From Companies Accounts Data"

Bank of England Discussion Paper No. 26, August 1986

f). Articles in Non-Academic Journals

In 2010-2017, Op eds in: The Financial Times, The Times, The Sunday Times, The Observer, The Telegraph, The Guardian, The Independent,

“Regulatory Failure and Regulatory Change in the Banking Sector”, National Institute Economic Review No. 235 February 2016

“Is There a Pensions Crisis?”, Prospect, December 2002.

“The Implications of Switching from Unfunded to Funded Pension Schemes”, National Institute Economic Review, February, pp71-87 ,1998.

“Company Financing and EMU”, in The Financial Survey, January 1998, pp 34-38.

“The Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy” Economic Outlook, November 1997.

“The Ostrich and the EMU: Policy Choices Facing the UK” Report of an Independent Panel established by the

Centre for Economic Policy Research, May 1997.

“Asking the Right Questions” in Could Finance Do More for British Business, Commission on Public Policy and British Business, IPPR, 1996.

"Fixed and Floating Rate Finance in the UK and Abroad", Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, February 1994. “Some Economic Issues in the Regulation of Financial Markets" Managerial Finance. Vol 16, no 6, pp 15 - 24,

(1990).

"An Appraisal of Stock Market Circuit Breakers", Managerial Finance,. vol 16, no 6, pp 25 -32. (1990). "Company Bank Borrowing and Liquid Lending" (with G Chowdhury and C J Green), National Westminster

Bank Quarterly Review, November 1989.

"Companies Long Term Financial Decisions: Dividends and Debt" (with G Chowdhury), Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin May 1987 (pp261-265)

"Fixed Investment, The Capital Stock and Factor Utilisation" (with P S O'Brien and M Pratt), Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, June 1986 (pp236-241)

"Companies Short Term Financial Decisions" (with C Green and G Chowdhury), Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin March 1986 (pp78-80)

g). Other Reports:

“And Yet It Moves: Inflation and the Great Recession”, the 19th Geneva Report on the World Economy, with Ricardo Reiss, Ugo Panizza and Angel Ubide, October 2017

“The Green Budget”, in Collaboration with the Institute for Fiscal Studies (2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009)

“A Study Into Certain Aspects of the Cost of Capital for Regulated Utilities in the UK”, A report prepared for the OFT and UK utilities regulators, February 2003, with Stephen Wright (Birkbeck College & Smithers & Co) and Robin Mason (University of Southampton).