UK2070 ZAS0011

UK2070 Commission Submission

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UK2070 Commission

This submission to the Environmental Audit Committee on Net-zero aviation and shipping draws upon the work of the UK2070 Commission. The UK2070 Commission is an independent inquiry, chaired by Lord Kerslake, into the deep-rooted spatial inequalities that exist across the UK. Its purpose is to identify strategies and policy initiatives to transform the economic performance and social conditions of the UK’s nations and regions.

The UK2070 Report ‘Make No Little Plans’,(February 2020) sets out a 10-Point Action Plan (refer Annex A). In particular, Action 2 seeks a Connectivity Revolution in moving to a Zero-Carbon economy, which is summarised in Annex B. The report also highlights the linkage between the delivery of net-zero and the UK’s commitment to the UN Sustainability Development Goals.

The work of the UK2070 Commission draws upon a substantial body of evidence submitted to it, or research commissioned by it. These documents can be found on its website. Some of these are particularly relevant to the questions being asked in the Net-zero Inquiry. These include:

• The Required Revolution: Transforming the UK’s transport connectivity: Greengauge21
• UK2070 Futures Post-COVID Scenario Modelling Main Report October 2020: City and Transport Research Group University of Cambridge
• Modelling a Pan-UK Network: David Simmonds Consultancy             
   

This submission by the UK2070 Commission does not seek to duplicate the material in the various reports listed above, but asks the Committee to take account of this material to the extent they are relevant to the detailed questions listed in the consultation document. The chair of the Commission, Lord Kerslake would be happy to give oral evidence if the Committee would consider it to be helpful.

The focus of the questions being asked by the Environmental Audit Committee relate directly to technologies, fuels and operational efficiencies. The UK2070 Commission does not wish to comment on these in detail. Our concern is to ensure that your considerations do not fail to set out the wider context in which any policy for aviation and shipping needs to be set if it is to address the full environmental footprint created by these modes of transport, in particular by:

• Reducing the need for travel; and
• The Delivery of a Net-zero energy infrastructure.

The Need for Travel

As mentioned in the background material to the Environmental Audit Committee’s call for evidence, “Reducing demand for air travel represents the most cost-effective method available for maintaining current emission levels.” This is also important in delivering the most immediate and effective impacts. In this context the following observations are made.

The Committee has asked a specific question about the scope for banning domestic air travel. This not only assumes that the alternative mode (rail) is net-zero but more importantly that there is an effective alternative rail network. It should be noted that the same question is being asked in France but the key difference is that France has a well-developed highspeed intercity network (the TGV). This however is not the case in the UK except for the links between London and the other UK cities, intercity links are poor. This has been highlighted in the report prepared by the Greengauge21 for the UK2070 Commission. The research commissioned from the University of Cambridge (see above) also illustrates the potential impact for improving rail connectivity between cities. These should be central recommendations that the Environmental Audit Committee should make as part of its overall conclusions.

In addition, domestic air travel demands need to be recognised as primarily linked to the pattern of urban activities. These are however increasingly concentrated in London and the Wider South East. As a result, economic growth in the UK has been spatially imbalanced. The evidence for this is set out in the reports by the UK2070 Commission, referred to earlier. In this context, the commitment to the levelling up of economic performance between the nations and regions of the UK, will alter the pattern of intercity business and governmental interaction and the balance and geography of demand for aviation and shipping. The Environmental Audit Committee’s conclusions should emphasise the importance of the levelling up agenda in delivering a more balanced and sustainable pattern of transport.

Net-zero Infrastructure

The Committee ask “What new technologies are there to reduce emissions from aircraft / shipping vessels and how close to commercialisation are they?” Historic experience is that the challenge of creating of technical and technological solutions to such issues can be and will be met. The evidence is that the basic science behind new energy sources is already understood, and will accelerate, especially, with government support. From experience, markets will respond once the ground rules have been set. There is therefore every reason to believe that there will be an uptake of any new technologies and fuels.

The more important inter-related questions for the Committee therefore lie around ensuring government give sustained support to the supporting infrastructure to deliver net zero shipping and aviation, through creating Global Centres of Excellence that will:

• Ensure that technology is developed and retained in the UK, for example; and
• Develop the capacity to scale up and roll-out clean energy and not off-shored.

The inherited long-term imbalanced pattern of development and associated travel demands has in part resulted from the highly centralised nature of government in the UK and its activities. The delivery of the Net-zero agenda has to be linked to making government fit for purpose and the empowerment of local action.

The potential for such action is exemplified through the work of the UK2070 Commission with the Tees Valley Mayor and Combined Authority.  Tees Valley is well placed to become one of the UK’s Global Centres of Excellence, growing existing clusters and developing new ones around biosciences, hydrogen and governmental anchor institutions, and potentially green steel. This has already started in the field of biosciences with the Darlington Central Park and the National Horizon Centre. This is helping to make Tees Valley the first UK Net Zero Cluster and join the international network of ‘Hydrogen Valleys’.

It will be important to maintain this momentum through a coordinated national plan for the integration of the national infrastructure needed to transition to net-zero in all sectors (for example, electrical and water supplies to the green hydrogen production plants). The work of the UK2070 Commission sets out the framework and responsibilities for such a policy initiative. The needs for aviation and shipping must be linked to complementary opportunities in the growth of power production, for example, in the case of Teesside, the developments in the chemical industry and the development of recycling as part of the circular economy around steel. The Environmental Audit Committee’s conclusions should therefore give recognition to the importance of a coordinated national plan for the integration of the national infrastructure.

ANNEX A

The UK2070 10-Point Plan

• A Spatially Just Transition to Zero-carbon to seize the opportunity to tackle climate change and re-balance the economy, ensuring there is an explicit spatial dimension to the UK’s plan to become zero carbon by 2050.

• Delivering a Connectivity Revolution investing in a new connectivity revolution, transforming the connections between cities, within cities and beyond cities to poorly connected towns through increasing infrastructure investment to at least 3% of GDP per annum.

• Creating New Global Centres of Excellence harnessing increased investment in research and development to create ‘hub and spoke’ networks of excellence and growth across the country comparable to the economic impact of the ‘golden triangle’ of London, Oxford and Cambridge.

• Strengthening the Foundations of Local Economies by strengthening economies in disadvantaged towns and empowering local leadership to develop economic capacity and promote resilience and wellbeing.

• Rethinking the Housing Crisis, recognising housing as part of national infrastructure and ensuring that the supply of new housing is aligned with the needs of the economy.

• Harnessing Cultural & Environmental Assets increasing the focus of policy and funding on assets outside of London.

• Implementing a Comprehensive Devolution, shifting power and funding away from Westminster and Whitehall through a radical programme of devolution and allowing different places to progress through different levels of devolution according to local ambition, need and capacity.

• Future Skilling the UK tackling the historic under-performance of the UK on skills through national plans to raise attainment levels, especially in those skills needed to achieve the levels of the best performing places.

• Levelling UP Access to Funds tripling the size of the Shared Prosperity Fund for 20 years, with clear spatial priorities, delivering an extra expenditure of £200bn over that already planned.

• Shaping the UK2070 Future. A National Spatial Plan for England tasking the National Infrastructure Commission with creating a national spatial plan for England and linking to those in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, to guide investment and to support local and regional spatial plans.

Changing the Way Decisions are Made

In order to deliver the above actions a powerful ministerially-led cross- government committee needs to be established with a dedicated team, to oversee delivery and embed levelling up, supported by spatial analysis, flexible funding and new measures of success, including a review of the Green Book appraisal methodology on the way major projects and local priorities are funded and assessed.

Annex B

ACTION  2: Delivering a Connectivity Revolution

(Abstract fromUK2070 Report Make No Little Plans)

A 50-year vision for a re-connected Britain is needed to meet the national zero-carbon target in 2050 and to reconnect all the communities in the UK, whether they are the major metropolitan centres or remoter rural communities. A study for the Commission of the future transport investment requirements, highlights the fact that a fully decarbonised system if it continues to be based on the current balance of transport modes requires a doubling of the nation’s electrical power generation – for which there is no investment plan.

As recognised by the Government, investing in transport links is essential to levelling up access to opportunities across the country, ensuring our regions are better connected, local economies flourish and more than half a century of isolation undone. A revolution in the public transport network capacity and quality is required between cities, within cities and beyond cities, potentially building up to 3000 km of new and upgraded rail lines.

Action 2 therefore sets out the steps by which a Connectivity Revolution could be achieved through the following components:

◆         A renewed standard of excellence in the level and quality of public transport connections between the core network of towns, cities and regions, comparable to that which they have with London;

◆         Higher levels of mobility within city regions and other urban areas through new multi-modal and integrated transport systems – extending into their rural hinterlands – especially through green bus, tram and metro systems expanding of existing systems in the metropolitan areas to other cities and towns;

◆         New levels of connectivity beyond core regions to address the absence of sustainable links to marginalised communities and towns and remoter rural areas; and enhance their access to services such as hospitals and further education and to wider economic prospects.

Photo: © RDS

September 2021