Written evidence submitted by Mike Haville
To manage a BCR of just 1:1 after the cost increase to £88 billion, HS2 would seem to have pushed the envelope of credibility and used a ‘garbage’ figure of 342,0001 passengers / day in their user benefit calculations.
Not quite the entire country, but 82,000 over the TOTAL available long distance passengers for the entire northern services of Avanti, West Midland Trains & LNER (266,0002).
The garbage figure of 342,000 passengers / day is also totally at odds with the DfT demand forecast for HS2 on the main routes of just 55,5823 passengers /day in 2039/40.
Even if the numbers from the non main routes pushed the figure up to 100,000 /day in 2039/40 – HS2’s passenger figures would still have increase by 342% to even reach the ‘garbage’ figure, which would take 120 years at the 1.9%4 forecast growth.
However, to reach the Net Transport Benefits figure for the full ‘Y’ of £74.2bn, the figure of 342,000 passengers / day seems to have been used from 2040 onwards.
Although the Transport User benefits figure of £74.2bn is easily established in HS2 Business Case, the 342,000 passengers / day is not to be found in the HS2 Business case or any of the PFMv9 supporting documents, thus not allowing analysis of the validity of the 342,000 figure.
The garbage passenger numbers figure seems to have been reverse calculated from the required BCR >= 1, rather than an actual forecast passengers / day.
This discrepancy between a feasible passenger number 60 – 100k /day & the 342,000 / day figure is extremely significant as the business case states that 16% drop in demand on phase 1, would see a fall in the BCR of 0.35.
2) Total Long Distance passengers / day 2039/40 = 604,741
PFMv9 Demand Forecasting Report – Table 6 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/902098/PFMv9_Forecasting_Report_Revision1.pdf
Forecast Passenger Numbers by Operator percentages from ORR 1223
2039/40 from total 604,741
CrossCountry (18%) = 109,000
Great Western Railway (44%) = 266,000
Avanti West Coast (17%) = 103,000
East Midlands Railway (11%) = 66,500
London North Eastern Railway (9%) = 54,000
GWR & CrossCountry passengers would not use HS2 = 56% = 338,654
Leaving 266,000 across 200 stations used by Avanti, WMT & LNER
3) HS2 key zone demand forecast = 55,582 passengers / day
PFMv9 Demand Forecasting Report – Table 8 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/902098/PFMv9_Forecasting_Report_Revision1.pdf
4) HS2 Business Case 2020 – Figure 1.12 Extrapolated and forecasted long distance rail passenger journeys under different scenarios, 2010-11 to 2049-50 – 1.9% growth / annum
5) HS2 Business Case 2020 – Executive Summary – 21