Written evidence submission from The Royal Society (DTD0014)

 

12 February 2021

 

Submission to the Commons International Trade Committee inquiry into Digital Trade and Data

 

Key points

 

  1. Digital technologies have transformed the global economy and introduced new opportunities for trade of both data and the digital technologies themselves as well as the potential to revolutionise the way that we trade. They have an environmental cost - from the extraction of minerals to the energy use and emissions of the technology – but also have a critical and growing part to play in delivering a net zero future. Under the right conditions, digital technologies could optimise and reduce their own footprint and bring even more transformative changes to deliver positive environmental impacts.
     
  2. There are a number of steps that could reduce the environmental impact of digital trade by reducing the digital carbon footprint. These include:
  1. the further uptake of renewables and the scrutiny of digital technologies’ energy proportionality – ie whether specific data and computing applications bring environmental or societal benefits that outweigh their own emissions.
  2. Encouraging the tech sector to lead by example and make data accessible to allow the greater monitoring of its energy consumption and carbon emissions. The National Data Strategy and Defra’s Green Government: ICT and Digital Services Strategy offer opportunities to ensure tech companies share publicly data about the energy consumptions of their digital systems and products, including embodied and use phase emissions, in particular from data centres.
  3. Regulators should develop guidance about the energy proportionality of digital applications. Such guidance could set out key questions to consider when developing or deploying digital technologies. Where there are options to use less energy-intensive approaches, guidance should make this clear. For example, the Financial Conduct Authority should provide guidance on the energy intensity of blockchain-based applications used in financial systems.
  4. Tech companies should further promote the use of renewable energy for computing activities, for example by scheduling these activities, where appropriate, for times that maximise the use of intermittent renewable energy sources.

 

  1. Digital technologies that reduce carbon emissions may offer new opportunities for trade.
    1. A study considering AI alone estimated that environmental applications of AI could save up to 4% greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, contribute up to $5.2 trillion USD to the global economy in 2030 and create 38.2 million net new jobs across the world.[1]

 

  1. Digital technology can also play a role in reducing the environmental impact of all trade. Studies suggest that digital technology, from smart meters to supercomputers, weather modelling and AI, could deliver nearly one third of the carbon emission reductions required by 2030. This includes in trade, where digital technology offers a way to trace carbon emissions along complex, global supply chains, to gain a complete understanding of the manufacturing system and make it possible to hold different parties accountable for their emissions.

 

 

Introduction

 

  1. The Royal Society is the national academy of science for the UK. Its Fellows include many of the world’s most distinguished scientists working across a broad range of disciplines in academia, industry, charities and the public sector. The Society draws on the expertise of the Fellowship to provide independent and authoritative advice to UK, European and international decision makers.

 

  1. This submission draws on the Society’s recent report, Digital technology and the planet[2] to focus on the impact that a global increase in digital trade will have on the environment and propose steps that can be taken to mitigate any negative environmental impacts of increased digital trade. 

 

Optimising our digital carbon footprint

  1. Increased digital trade will see increased use of digital technologies. Recent years have seen growing interest in the amount of carbon generated by digital technologies and the extent to which this poses a threat to sustainability efforts. While attracting significant media attention, studies in this area have presented a range of different estimates of the contributions to global emissions made by digital technologies, with these varying from 1.4% to 5.9% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
  2. Studies estimate that emissions from digital technologies come in large part (around two thirds) from the electricity they consume whilst in use, and in smaller but still substantial part from ‘embodied’ emissions incurred during the life-cycle of these technologies, from raw materials extraction, through to manufacturing, distribution, end-of-use recycling and disposal of materials. When considering user devices only, such as smartphones and laptops, the share of embodied emissions reaches approximately 50%.
  3. In February 2020, the tech and telecommunications industry agreed a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 45% between 2020 and 2030. In addition, tech giants have recently made bold pledges about their respective carbon footprints.
  4. However, assessing the progress of the sector towards these targets will require access to good quality, reliable data about its emissions and energy use. The relatively few studies available about the energy consumption of digital systems reveal variations in the sources of data used, with some studies relying on private, unpublished data. For example, lifecycle analysis data about digital products is currently not freely available in most cases. The tech sector needs to improve data collection and reporting practice about the energy consumption of digital systems, as well as sources and energy mix, to monitor and accelerate progress against climate targets. While the Climate Change Act (2014) has prompted UK commercial data centres to report Scope 1 and 2 emissions, interventions will need to manage the fact that the digital infrastructure is global, with only a few data centres from large tech companies currently located in the UK. In addition to informing policy decisions, making such data available would increase understanding of the components of energy use, as well as how they can be reduced and the system optimised.
  5. While global internet traffic has on average grown by 30% a year over the past decade, technological advances and data centre management practice have limited the increase in data centre energy demand. Moving computing to the cloud has allowed more efficient patterns of server use, although there is still room for improvement. Data centre cooling technologies have employed new mechanisms of heat exchange and contributed energy savings. Improvements in data storage drives have allowed faster, more energy-efficient processing.
  6. Evidence suggests the uptake of renewable energy has, so far, effectively helped reduce emissions from digital technology use. Many major Internet companies, including Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon, claim to run their data centres using renewable energy where they can, or buying it elsewhere to compensate for sites where they cannot. The top four corporate off-takers of renewables in 2019 were all digital technology companies. There is an opportunity for another approach that can increase the use of renewables, and thus contribute to decarbonising electricity grids: scheduling. This means managing the timing of computing so jobs that are not time-sensitive are done when there is lower overall demand or more renewable supply. This spreads computing jobs across peaks.
  7. The energy demands of computing could develop in different ways, and projections of future emissions vary widely – greater data availability and a continued analysis of underlying drivers of change will be necessary to produce reliable projections in future, and to drive decarbonisation.
  8. If gains in energy-efficiency and demand for computing both reach a plateau then computing’s power consumption will stabilise. However, if demand for computing increases more than the efficiency gains in digital technology, then energy demand will go up.
  9. To harness digital technology for the good of the planet, the use of data and digital technologies will need to expand – with new digital applications and services across sectors. If this vision is to be achieved without computing becoming an increasing proportion of global energy use and emissions, action will be needed to:
    1. develop and deploy applications to enable emission reductions across sectors;
    2. model and monitor the impact of interventions, through digital twins (virtual representations of physical assets, allowing simulation);
    3. ensure uses of technology are ‘energy proportionate’, or in other words that they use computing power effectively; this should be part of a ‘net zero assessment’ of any technology-based approach;
    4. support improvements to the energy efficiency of devices;
    5. minimise the turnover of digital infrastructure and its embodied emissions; and
    6. enable operation under fully renewable energy.

 

Digital technologies that reduce carbon emissions offer new opportunities for trade

  1. Data and digital technology have a key part to play in the transition to a net zero global economy and many of the platforms and products that support this may increasingly be traded. Digital systems from ground sensors to satellites can generate valuable data, enabling greater emissions monitoring and understanding of climate trends and intervention impacts. This, together with data from across sectors about the inner workings of these sectors, from the mapping of physical assets to business processes, can power data-driven systems and services with the potential to achieve significant emission reductions across the economy – from underpinning the smart control of energy networks, to enabling a switch to ‘as a service’ business models and a circular economy.
  2. A study considering AI alone estimated that the technology’s environmental applications could save up to 4% greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, contribute up to $5.2 trillion USD to the global economy in 2030 and create 38.2 million net new jobs across the world.
  3. For example, as seen during this ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, digital platforms have supported a surge in online purchase and deliveries. Digital technology can help consolidate demand and facilitate collaboration between delivery and logistics providers. This allows the identification of the most sensible routes and travel times, avoiding empty vans and duplicate journeys. Such changes can be stimulated by the benefits they offer in terms of cost reduction, accelerated delivery timeframes and a better end-user experience.

 

Digital technology can also play a role in reducing the environmental impact of all trade

 

  1. Digital technology offers a way to trace carbon emissions along complex, global supply chains, to gain a complete understanding of the manufacturing system and make it possible to hold different parties accountable for their emissions. Networks of sensors can collect accurate data on energy use from industrial machinery, and emerging technologies can support transparency and verifiability of these measurements, so organisations and consumers better understand the emissions produced in manufacturing and transport of goods.
  2. If they can be scaled while limiting their carbon footprint, blockchain-style technologies could be among the technologies enabling emissions and materials traceability, to know when, where and how many emissions and materials are being generated and used across a supply chain. Such technologies also provide transparency and verifiability by creating immutable copies of records across the system, so different users can access accurate information about emissions generated in production.
  3. When seeking to reduce the carbon footprint of the trading process, interdependencies in the system will need to be considered, as interventions in one area might lead to rebound effects in another. For example, increased working from home, enabled by the internet and videoconferencing, might reduce the need to travel to work as much, but it might mean that people then choose to live further away from their workplace and other amenities, and hence travel further by car – and thus lead to a rebound in emissions. In many cases, the emission savings may justify the cost of building new, data-enabled infrastructure. However, the introduction of new infrastructure and technologies, such as blockchain in distributed energy systems or to track goods and their emissions, could also lead to rebound effects. This speaks to the critical need to model and monitor the impact of new infrastructures, policies and interventions, which digital twinning makes possible.
  4. With the Centre for Digital Built Britain, the UK has a world-leading National Digital Twin programme. Scaling such digital twins and models, from city-level to national level and global level, will require a coordinated effort from the start to ensure data infrastructures are trustworthy and interoperable.
  5. Currently there might be a wealth of existing data, but a lack of leadership and coordination to make the best use of it for the climate – for example to monitor cross-borders emissions incurred in trade. A key aspiration should be the establishment of a flow of data making planetary digital twins and a ‘control loop for the planet’ possible. As part of the COP26 effort and future international engagement, the UK Government should lead on the creation of international arrangements to enable the collection, sharing and use of data to underpin the development of applications and services helping achieve net zero. 

 

 

 

February 2021

 


[1] Microsoft and PwC UK 2019 How AI can enable a sustainable future (see https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/sustainability-climate-change/insights/how-ai-future-can-enable-sustainable-future.html, accessed 11 February 2021)

[2] Royal Society (2020) Digital Technology and the Planet https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/digital-technology-and-the-planet/ [accessed 19 January 2021]