Written evidence submitted by Population Matters

ABOUT

1. Population Matters is a UK-based NGO that works to achieve a sustainable human population, promote reproductive rights, and protect the natural world. In the words of our Patron, Sir David Attenborough: “Every other species on Earth reaches a maximum population after a time; the number that can be sustained on the natural resources available.”[1] Our vision is thus of a world in which our population can live fairly and sustainably with nature and each other. By tackling the causes and effects of population growth, we aim to inspire action and amplify vital conversations about our planet’s future, including through evidence-based research, advocacy, and programming, and with our national and local partners in Nigeria and worldwide.

2. This submission has been prepared by the Population Matters research team. Dr Joshua Hill is a behavioural economist and finance professional, with a focus on international development and experience working in sub-Saharan Africa. His doctoral research in Uganda considered how language, social norms, and misperception shape decision-making across a range of contexts and domains. Dr Gillian McKay has worked in the humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding sectors for over a decade, including on Nigeria and with the FCDO in Myanmar. Her PhD examined the UK government’s approach to preventing mass atrocity crimes, including in the Sahel and across Africa. Dr Peter Tomlin is a biological anthropologist with five years’ doctoral and post-doctoral experience conducting primary ecological and conservation research in South Africa and the Republic of Congo.

SUMMARY

3. Population Matters welcomes the Committee’s interest in both the UK’s development partnership with Nigeria and growing population pressures facing the country.  In this submission, we highlight a number of key development challenges related to rapid population growth in Nigeria, including poverty and fiscal pressures, health and human rights, conflict, atrocities and instability, and biodiversity loss and land degradation. To help address these interconnected challenges, we call on HMG to:

• Support the Nigerian government’s forthcoming census to inform effective population policy formulation, resource allocation, and service provision;
• Engage with state and local actors to advance sexual and reproductive health and rights and expand access to family planning information and services;
• Work to strengthen sustainable farming practices, promote food security, and mitigate health and environmental harms through education and regulation;
• Invest in and subsidise green technology and renewable energy initiatives, offering low-interest loans to support innovation and climate resilience; and
• Bolster efforts to combat desertification in Nigeria and the Sahel through conflict-sensitive programming and support for African Union initiatives.

INTRODUCTION

4. Rapid human population growth is a relatively new phenomenon. It took more than 200,000 years for the global population to reach one billion people, 125 years to reach two billion, and less than 100 years to balloon to over eight billion. This surge has been driven by major advances in public health, agriculture, and technology, dramatically reducing mortality rates and increasing life expectancy. The global population is expected to peak at around 10.3 billion in the 2080s, followed by a plateau or gradual decline, reflecting shifting demographic trends and increasing urbanisation. While this growth has slowed in many high-income countries due to lower fertility rates and ageing populations, growth rates remain high in parts of Africa and South Asia, with the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions experiencing the highest rates globally.[2]

5. Nigeria's population has grown dramatically in recent decades – from around 45 million in 1960 to an estimated 234 million today – making it the most populous nation state in Africa and the sixth most populous country in the world.[3] UN OCHA has identified rapid population growth as one of eight operational challenges in Nigeria, compounding risks across the Sahel and West Africa.[4] Public services and infrastructure contend with bulging youth and urban populations throughout the country, and policymakers are constrained by incomplete and outdated census data last collected in 2006. It is within this context that this submission seeks to shed light on key development challenges posed by rapid population growth in Nigeria, and offer suggestions as to how HMG can support the Nigerian government and civil society.

KEY DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES

Poverty and Fiscal Pressures

6. As of 2025, Nigeria’s key development indicators reflect both progress and persistent challenges. Despite rapid economic growth, and being the largest economy in Africa, population growth has meant that GDP per capita has declined (to USD 835.49). Yet, its Human Development Index improved slightly (to 0.560), placing Nigeria in the medium human development category for the first time since 1990. Poverty nevertheless remains widespread, with 30.9% of the population living below the extreme poverty line and education levels strongly influencing poverty outcomes: nearly 80% of those without a formal education experience poverty, compared to 50% among those with secondary education. Literacy stands at 62%, with a notable gender gap (70% male, 54% female), and school enrolment rates remain modest, with 75% in primary, 42% in secondary, and just 9% in tertiary education. The unemployment rate has also risen, reaching 30.7% in recent years, exacerbated by limited job creation and rapid (youth) population growth. These figures thus underscore the need for sustained investment in human capital, inclusive growth which bolsters equality indicators, and targeted poverty reduction strategies.[5]

7. Many of the economic challenges facing Nigeria are rooted in structural issues and compounded by fiscal pressures. One of the most pressing concerns is inflation, which reached 34.8% in December 2024, driven by rising costs in food, transport, and utilities. Although monetary tightening is expected to reduce inflation to around 26% in 2025, price stability remains elusive due to supply constraints and fiscal expansion. Debt sustainability is another major issue, with the fiscal deficit hitting 7.6% in 2024, far exceeding the budgeted 3.8%. The 2025 budget adds ₦7.4 trillion in new debt, raising concerns about future access to credit and crowding out private investment structural issues, including Nigeria’s ability to invest in green technology or realise its demographic dividend – defined as the potential for economic growth arising from a growing population of working age.[6] Fundamentally, investment infrastructure has constrained Nigerian investment in keyline public services and infrastructure, including renewable and sustainable energy, and thereby limited opportunity for Nigeria to realise any potential demographic dividend on a per capita basis.[7]

Health and Human Rights

8. Healthcare systems are increasingly unable to meet the demands of a rapidly growing population in Nigeria, particularly in rural and urban-poor areas where fertility rates are highest, with reports of inadequate and insufficient healthcare infrastructure, facilities, equipment, supplies, and personnel. For example, one study recently found that most local government areas in Ebonyi State had fewer than one primary healthcare facility and one primary healthcare worker per 10,000 people.[8] While some facilities in this study were perceived to be overburdened, others were ostensibly underutilised, highlighting discrepancies in accessibility, particularly in areas with poor road infrastructure and limited transport options. Water and waste systems have also been unable to cope with the increased pressures of rapidly growing urban populations. Moreover, while health outcomes often differ markedly between rural and urban populations, the socioeconomic status of Nigerian urban dwellers also determines access to adequate sanitation and quality healthcare.[9]

9. Shifting demographics also increase demand for specific healthcare information and services, including child, maternal, and reproductive support. The Nigerian government has initiated several policies and legislative measures to guarantee and protect sexual and reproductive health and rights, yet implementation is widely perceived to be lacking and impact thereby limited. Almost one third of girls have experienced physical or sexual violence by age 15 and female genital mutilation remains prevalent in many parts of the country, including most prominently in urban areas.[10] More than 40% of girls are married by their 18th birthday; in some northern regions, 78% are married by aged 18 and 48% by 15.[11] Modern contraception is not widely accessible[12] and abortion remains illegal – though the Nigerian military has been accused of forcibly terminating over 10,000 pregnancies among freed captives in the northeast, including girls as young as 12.[13]

10. Political, cultural, religious, and patriarchal norms pose a further challenge. While women are the primary target for family planning programmes, it is men, as household heads, who often make reproductive decisions.[14] Fear of stigmatisation and concerns over confidentiality further prevent access to services where they are available, and young people are reportedly more likely to get (mis)information from social media than credible sources, including school teachers.[15] Religious groups have also responded differently to past population policy in Nigeria, highlighting distinct fertility preferences across regions and cultures.[16] Moreover, population is deeply political in Nigeria, with links to identity and resources: Larger populations (e.g., of a particular ethnic group) are perceived to be entitled to a greater share of resources. In this way, “wealth in people” incentivises higher in-group fertility rates.

Conflict, Atrocities and Instability

11. There is some consensus that rapid population growth poses an indirect challenge to peace and security in parts of Nigeria.[17] This is especially true for increasingly fatal and frequent clashes between nomadic herders and sedentary farmers, who, despite ethnic and religious differences, have historically enjoyed relatively peaceful and symbiotic relations. Colonial legacies, climate change, and the proliferation of small arms and light weapons have compounded population pressures and underscore these shifting conflict dynamics, particularly in the country’s northern regions: land disputes, expansive capitalist land acquisition, desertification and extreme weather events, uneven distribution of and competition over scarce land and water resources, changing migration patterns, and impunity for crime and banditry have exacerbated tensions and fuelled grievances often neglected or mismanaged by the state.[18]

12. Another challenge concerns the relationship between population growth and youth unemployment, which increases the risk of young people turning to petty, violent, or organised crime, or joining the ranks of extremist and non-state armed groups.[19] A lack of access to income-generating opportunities leaves vast swathes of the bulging youth population unable to meet their basic needs through licit and peaceful means, and this stagnation can breed frustration and resentment among vulnerable groups that may be weaponised along religious, ethnic, and political lines. Capitalising on these vulnerabilities, malign actors enjoy increased capacity and opportunity to inflict harm and commit mass atrocities, as they have in the Sahel,[20] which are in turn met with state-sanctioned violence, including possible violations of international law.[21]

13. Disenfranchised youth are also increasingly mobilising in Nigeria and throughout Africa to protest poor governance, prompting political unrest and disproportionate responses from state security forces.[22] One study found that the likelihood of unrest increased in the months immediately following a major flood, highlighting that, while a larger population is neither a sufficient nor necessary condition for the onset of disaster-related unrest, it does inherently increase both vulnerabilities to impacts and the number of people willing to forego recovery efforts in favour of activism.[23] For example, in Nigeria, following the Gagere River flood in 2018, which killed 108 people and led to economic losses among 19,000 farmers in a region that has historically experienced state-led discrimination and marginalisation, residents of Goronyo town protested what they perceived to be slow and inadequate assistance. While this protest was peaceful, the case demonstrates the fragile intersections between population dynamics, disaster-related risks, and the potential for instability.

Biodiversity Loss and Land Degradation

14. Nigeria’s geographical location has endowed it with a rich biodiversity and numerous ecological zones (i.e., mangrove, rainforest, montane, and savanna).[24] Human populations share this space with an estimated 315 mammal, 866 bird, 207 reptile, 118 amphibian, 772 fish, and 7,895 plant species,[25] alongside an unknown, but potentially vast, number of species of invertebrates and other organisms. This biodiversity is under threat from multiple sources. The main threats to wildlife conservation are climate change, pollution, deforestation, habitat loss, invasion of alien species, and poaching and overhunting.[26] A key factor underscoring each of these threats is a single cause – rapid human population growth – which exacerbates every other factor impacting the ecosystem, particularly deforestation.[27]

15. It is estimated that, across Africa, two-thirds of the population depend on forest resources for food and income, and that 90% of Africans use fuel wood and charcoal as energy sources.[28] Nigerians have historically depended on the forest for survival, economic development, and environmental sustenance.27 Rapid population growth has led to unsustainable forest resource use, resulting in massive deforestation across the country. Nigeria is in fact thought to have among the highest rates of deforestation in the world at 3.7% per year,[29] with forest area declining by over five million hectares from 1990 to 2020 and now occupying only 8% of the total land area.[30] Importantly, while there are a significant number of protected areas in Nigeria covering roughly 14% of the total land area,[31] these areas are threatened by human encroachment and illegal harvesting due to poverty and high unemployment rates.[32]

16. Deforestation and unsustainable agricultural practices also compound widespread environmental degradation in Nigeria,[33] leading to reduced agricultural yields and an increase in the number of rural people living in poverty.[34] One case study in the Kuje Area Council of Abuja highlighted that 96.7% of farmers identified overgrazing as a major cause of land degradation, followed by soil erosion (92.7%), bush burning (82.2%), continuous tillage of soil (80.2%), sand mining (72.3%), and deforestation (63.2%).33 In response to land degradation, farmers may try to improve crop yields through abuse and misuse of pesticides, further polluting the land and harming human consumers,[35] or resorting to chemical fertilisers which can have adverse effects on water quality and water-based habitats due to run-off.[36] Land degradation is particularly problematic in the northern regions of the country due to desertification in the Sahel, which is driven by both natural factors and anthropogenic activities.[37]

HOW HMG CAN SUPPORT NIGERIAN PARTNERS

17. Nigeria faces a complex convergence of development challenges compounded by rapid population growth, including environmental degradation, biodiversity loss, land-related conflict, political unrest, and extremist activity. These pressures are exacerbated by catastrophic climate change, real and perceived governance issues, and limited access to sustainable livelihoods, particularly in the country’s northern regions. Poverty remains widespread, with significant disparities in education, employment, and gender equality, while fiscal constraints and inflation undermine economic resilience and investment in public services. Healthcare systems are increasingly overstretched, and sexual and reproductive health and rights remain under threat due to political, cultural, religious, and patriarchal norms. These intersecting challenges not only undermine Nigeria’s capacity to meet the needs of its growing population but also risk deepening inequality, instability, and injustice. 

18. Population Matters therefore calls on HMG to:

1. Support the Federal Government with the forthcoming census to promote data-driven and evidence-based population planning, ensuring that members of all identity groups are meaningfully included and that population distribution is mapped across all geographic areas to inform effective policy formulation, resource allocation, and service provision at national and local levels.

2. Work with State and Local Government agencies, as well as civil society, to ensure policy and legislation guaranteeing sexual and reproductive health and rights are implemented and enforced effectively. This includes support designed to educate and empower women and girls, address patriarchal, cultural, and religious barriers to modern contraception use, and increase awareness of and access to information and services to address unmet family planning needs.

3. Partner with State and Local Government agencies, as well as civil society, to enhance agricultural education and capacity-building initiatives to promote sustainable farming practices and food security – including the availability, affordability, and accessibility of nutritious sustenance – and to mitigate health-related and environmental impacts of chemical pesticides and fertilisers, including through regulatory measures to tackle misuse.

4. Engage with Nigerian and West African partners, including through PACT and Science and Innovation networks, to investigate and implement green technology initiatives and renewable and sustainable energy programming. This might involve the provision of low-interest business and development loans, direct subsidies, and support via underwritten international financing.

5. Leverage its multilateral and bilateral convening powers to foster knowledge exchange and facilitate evidence-based action on the interconnected challenges posed by desertification in Nigeria and the Sahel. Investment should bolster existing projects, such as the African Union’s Great Green Wall Initiative, and support long-term, conflict-sensitive programming informed by affected populations, underscored by demographic indicators, and responsive to evolving local dynamics, including changing migration patterns.