Written evidence submitted by Professor John Remedios, Executive Director on behalf of the National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO) (SDY0051)

Introduction to NCEO

1. The National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO) is an internationally leading, distributed research institute. It is one of six major research institutes of the Natural Environment Research Council, NERC, part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI). With an annual income of over £10 million per year, the NCEO provides the UK with a national, long-term and strategic capability in Earth observation research.

2. NCEO is staffed by over 130 scientists from UK institutions, led by Professor John Remedios (University of Leicester). Staff are based in 10 universities and 3 research organisations providing a model for sustained activity in both space and environmental science through critical mass and collaborative strength.

3. NERC works with the UK Space Agency (UKSA) through a “dual key” approach to priorities in Earth Observation (EO) which links UKRI-NERC with UKSA in delivering the National Space Strategy, world-class environmental research and commitments to international space-EO programmes. We support UKSA and the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology in international policy fora such as the Group on Earth Observations (GEO).

4. NCEO science focusses on the most pressing challenges of environmental science from climate change to wildfire to urban living, devising systems that provide improved quality of life and economic sustainability. Through its world-class research, NCEO is able to analyse vast amounts of data alongside sophisticated models, producing high quality information on the environment of interest to government and business; we advise the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. NCEO scientists publish more than 100 peer-reviewed articles per year and play leading roles in more than 20 international, public satellite missions.

5. We work with a large number of businesses nationally and internationally through satellite mission projects, digital projects and climate services. We support regional business-facing initiatives through regional space clusters and university-based initiatives.

Q1: To what extent is the UK considered a global leader in science and innovation and how does this contribute to its soft power on the global stage?

6. The evidence is that the UK is a global leader in science, e.g., from citations where UK papers are the most highly cited by U.S. papers (https://ncses.nsf.gov/pubs/nsb202333/publication-output-by-region-country-or-economy-and-by-scientific-field ); typically greater than 60% of UK papers have international co-authors and this is certainly true for NCEO (nearly 70%).

7. The UK space sector provides a good example. The UK is well-recognised as a nation of science and business active in space. A large part of this is due to its international partnerships whether it be participation in European space programmes, the work of transnational companies or the international prominence of its space-enabled (e.g., “Earth Observation” studies) and space-focussed science (e.g., astronomy and solar science). Working through European Space Agency programmes has enabled the UK to leverage its contributions to lead science collaborations across the full range of space work, exerting influence in industrial strategy and societal challenges across Europe.

8. The Earth Observation (EO) community in the UK is vibrant: world-leading science; internationally competitive research institutes; huge impacts on public life whether it be through weather forecasting, environmental intelligence or EO-based map layers; a large number of SMEs utilising EO data and the industrial capability to build satellite missions. From polar and ocean biological science to sea and urban temperatures to fires, earthquakes and volcanoes to greenhouse gases, UK scientists are at the forefront of science research and activities, with world-leading publications and research that makes a difference

9. The availability and exploitation of EO is hugely important to global challenges which confront science and business with urgent questions and needs for data-informed systems and solutions including the inter-linked Paris Agreement (climate), Sendai Agreement (disasters), UN Sustainable Development Goals and the UN agenda for Sustainable Urban Development. Through the UK’s science engagements, the UK has been able to support science evidence on the international stage with its consequent impact on global policy. In our case, this has included influential statements from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the World Meteorological Organisation and the less well-known Group on Earth Observations (GEO) and Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS)

10. The value of this science engagement to industry and hence export is also substantial, bringing access to markets. Estimates of the world-wide market for EO vary according to source. However, they all agree that this market is expected to grow very significantly and climate-related services are a large part of this market. A EUSPA report[1] estimates EO global revenues are expected to grow from £3 billion in 2023 to almost £5.5 billion in 2033.  The potential value-added from Earth data is forecast to grow from $266 billion in 2023 to $700 billion by 2030[2] representing $3.6 trillion cumulatively over 2023-2020. Overall, one can see this growth curve continuing significantly beyond 2033 and this is an area UK companies can access through UK science internationally.

11. The international science programme relevant to the UK which has had the biggest political dimension is the Copernicus programme alongside Horizon Europe. Subscription to this leading EO science and services programme was a major point in the post-Brexit trade negotiations. Now that we are back in Copernicus, UK participants have access to EC, national states and local government across Europe.

Q2: How has this agenda been impacted by the current geopolitical environment, including the international activities of Russia and China?

12. Current geopolitical impacts include problems with satellites launches through loss of access to Russian launchers, problems with collaborations due to concerns over China, and disruptions to global scientific activities through policy restrictions, funding uncertainties and travel restrictions in current United States of America policies.  We are most concerned about the impact of the current USA Administration on its scientists; on climate, weather and environmental contributions including EO satellites and their enormous contribution to the global monitoring system; on access to environmental observations; on restrictions to collaborations including through concerns on travel to the USA. So far UK reaction to these problems has been muted.

Q3: How effective is the UK Government’s strategy for positioning the UK as a global leader in science and technology and what role does the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) play in advancing this agenda?

13. The Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) plays the leading role in advancing this international agenda with some contributions from the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and the Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs.

14. DSIT teams and constituent bodies such as United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) are clear on the value of international collaborations and are pro-active in the space and Earth Observation area. DSIT are responsible for European science collaboration programmes, such as Horizon, Copernicus and the European Space Agency (ESA). Contributions to ESA programmes are formally agreed by DSIT Ministers in international negotiations. However, DSIT and non-departmental bodies have small and diminishing teams which appear to be limiting the influence and impact of our scientists in international subscription programmes. It is not clear whether the international programmes are recognised and reflected in Treasury budgets for DSIT and hence in DSIT staffing.

Q4: How well positioned is the government to link scientific and technological progress with enhanced global and UK security?

15. It is undoubtedly the case that the growing need for sovereign capability and the insights that satellite provide are fundamental to both national security and resilience. If we need critical intelligence, it either comes from our international partnerships or/and we need our own supply and capability to be able to contribute in a leading way.

16. With regards to national security, the need and value is evident and others are better placed to comment fully. However, we note the considerable use in very recent times of satellite imagery in the media, reflecting the unique information provided by EO across many difficult hostilities.

17. Dual-use, i.e., the joint use of assets for military and civilian needs, has been a government tenet for some time. However, there is little evidence of true joint technological and system development which would really reap the benefits in a concrete manner. One could argue that government has been slow to act whilst military satellite systems are being commissioned independently of civil use cases. The UK should find ways to build across these barriers, starting with skilled digital infrastructures and data access.

18. The value of space to national resilience can be gauged from the National Risk Register[3]. Four explicit space risks appear there: disruption to space-based services, disruption to Position, Navigation and Timing (PNT), Severe space weather and deliberate disruption of UK space systems and space-based services. However, there are also “non-explicit” but direct impacts of space Earth Observation (and PNT) information already in our ability to meet requirements for response capability in these areas: storms, flooding (fluvial and coastal), drought, high temperatures and heatwaves, volcanic eruption, humanitarian crisis overseas and natural hazard events, and disaster response in the Overseas Territories. The UKSA is responsible for UK membership of the International Disaster Charter operations and indeed the UK has called on this Charter for support in tasking satellites for natural hazard events in the UK but clearly it is important also for humanitarian aid. Space assets in the form of EO, PNT and communications should also be used more and likely isn’t yet in wildfires, earthquakes, low temperatures and snow, poor air quality where relevant. For National Risk Register work and related response developments, we should be making use of the information we already know is present in the research and space worlds.

Q5: What impact will the rebranded Science and Technology Network have on the UK’s global position

19. We agree with the identification of climate and environment as a priority topic. The challenges are immense, need international collaboration and involve a growing industry. We would like to see more reference to Industrial Strategy technologies and to bilateral space missions.

Q6: How can the impact of science diplomacy activities be measured, particularly in terms of enhancing national branding, fostering international influence, and contributing to conflict resolution?

20. This is a really important question. There is a tendency to measure science diplomacy and science international success purely in terms of benefits to UK industry, jobs created etc. These fall short of metrics which truly capture the value of the international programmes. More important measures would include counterfactuals on the abilities of UK to lead science, the number of discoveries, the support to UK policy, the productivity of UK science.

21. Decreases in Overseas Development Aid (ODA) have had a big impact on UK science’s support to developing countries and soft diplomacy in many countries; termination of the Global Challenges Research Fund had immediate effects.

Q7: How can the UK assess the value derived from its participation in international science collaborations in areas such as space initiatives, climate, particle physics, and vaccines development?

22. The UK could track the number of big UK science wins, the number of scientists involved, the leverage of other programmes, the international standing of UK science. The UK science plays a huge role in space and climate initiatives but we often have to work very hard to have success reflected in government metrics and government support even within DSIT.

Q8: What are the benefits of bilateral agreements or global collaborations, such as CERN, for the UK economy and its innovation ecosystem?

23. The benefits of bilateral agreements are huge (see also answer to next question). In many science areas they are simply a pre-requisite for being a serious scientist as the UK is unable to pay for such programmes on its own. CERN is an obvious example but in our area, ESA programmes, Copernicus and Eumetsat all provide our EO and environmental science with unrivalled opportunities to do new science which without satellite fleets would simply be impossible. The UK could maybe afford one EO satellite a decade; through our international programmes we can play leading roles in thirty of more. Just in NCEO, this is exactly what happens. Our leading scientists are playing major roles in shaping and exploiting more than 20 satellite missions. It will be a similar story in space science, solar physics and planetary exploration.

24. International partnerships are very important in the UK and across the space sector. These programmes allow the UK to achieve much more with its investments than it could do in a solely UK-focussed programme. We must be committed long-term to be reliable internationally.

25. We emphasize the importance of the UK being in an international “club” such as the European Space Agency in order to be involved in the most ambitious space projects, leveraging its contributions and national space programme to develop capabilities which can be brought to fruition in leading roles. These are critical markers of the UK as a global space nation in partnerships and being productive through our geo-return.

26. In the 1990s, Europe had four public satellites in space through its co-ordinated agencies of the European Space Agency and Eumetsat; the UK is a member of these inter-governmental, independent organisations. Now, these agencies have over 20 large satellites including the Sentinel satellites they operate on behalf of the Copernicus programme.

27. At the current time, the UK is reaping the rewards of the diligence of previous years with UK-inspired explorer (research) and operational missions. Last year, the European Space Agency and JAXA Earthcare mission was launched making unprecedented detailed observations of clouds and aerosols which are important for climate but also for improved weather forecasting; international but the mission proposal was led by UK scientists from U. Reading and the UK has built two out of four instruments on the satellite. At the end of this April, the BIOMASS mission will launch to make ground-breaking measurements of forest carbon (biomass) using a newly accessible radar frequency (P band); this international concept has been led by a UK scientist from NCEO and U. Sheffield and the mission prime, performing the satellite integration and industrial leadership roles, is Airbus in Stevenage. These science-led missions could not happen within UK participation and whilst the focus is on novel science that cannot be done another way, they also speak directly to them critical information needed to meet the global challenges identified in para’ 10.

28. The Copernicus programme is a science-inspired programme for public and commercial benefit which is fundamentally science-enabled at the data and knowledge end of the supply chain. This is truly research and innovation leading to economic growth and informed, modern public services. The operational nature of the system delivers long-term data for many different types of research and assured information flows for downstream industry and government. NERC research institutes (such as NCEO) and science-based government agencies (such as the Met Office) are building services based on these operational EO satellites of which Copernicus is an unrivalled world-leading system complementing the meteorological satellites operated by Eumetsat; the expansion in the Eumetsat fleet is estimated to be worth €44.2 billion[4] in social and economic benefits for the organisation’s member states. In today’s geopolitics, the Copernicus programme also provides an operational reliability where we can no longer rely on assets from some countries and where the only other major system developments are otherwise in China.

Q9: How can the UK be made an attractive destination for global R&D investment, and how can the benefits of this investment be maximised locally and nationally?Are the thematic areas selected by the Network the right ones to prioritise?

29. There are really four simple ingredients: a vibrant national science scene including good funding; secure, long-term international investments; local clusters of expertise supported by local funding (not really present since the demise of the UK regional development agencies and European Union local investment programmes); excellent innovation programmes moving from R&D through to large-scale technologies, digital innovations, products and services.

9th May 2025

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