Space Solar (SPA0048)
Space Solar is commercialising space-based solar power, the ultimate clean energy technology, delivering continuous, affordable energy from space to markets on Earth. Space Solar is spearheading the commercial development of SBSP, with market leading technology, international partners and a deliverable plan to commercialise SBSP within five years. Key milestones are the proof-of-concept in-space demonstrator within three years, our first commercial power generation in five years, and scaling out beyond that to GigaWatt scale systems.
We are delighted to submit evidence to the call for evidence and want to highlight the opportunity that the UK has around space-based solar power but also more broadly toward large space infrastructure and how this can be transformational in terms of economic growth and wider societal benefits.
Executive Summary
The space sector is about to go through a transformational change, underpinned by heavy reusable launch (Starship and other). This opens up an era of large infrastructure in space, enabling things like space-based solar power, datacentres in space, direct to mobile communications and manufacture of new materials in space. These are all major economic opportunities for UK leadership.
It is important to recognise that the UK is now struggling in traditional sectors such as communications and earth observation. Whilst there will be national security and defence requirements that need to be met, the economic opportunity from these areas is now limited for the UK beyond what UK government funds.
The UK hence has the opportunity to support the new generation of space infrastructure businesses and their transformative capabilities linked to the new era in space. Importantly, developing these large infrastructure businesses will develop significant economic returns, bring non-space sector investment toward space, have huge positive impacts on earth and help space to be more sustainable. Two key themes for real UK leadership potential are power in space and large infrastructure in space.
Space Solar is a global leader in space-based solar power. Space Solar is commercialising space-based solar power (SBSP), the ultimate clean energy technology, delivering continuous, affordable energy from space to markets on Earth. The time is now for space-based solar power: Global electricity demand is forecast to double by 2050 and meeting this need whilst achieving Net Zero is not practical with current technologies. Long considered viable, advances in reusable launch now make space-based solar power economically competitive.
Space Solar is spearheading the commercial development of SBSP, with market leading technology, international partners and a deliverable plan to commercialise SBSP within five years. Through the development journey, large space infrastructure will be developed that can support a range different applications from both a large infrastructure or power perspective (large, lightweight arrays of solar panels in space to power datacentres and other new power intensive applications).
Whatever the UK does, leveraging expertise in financing and regulation is key.
1. The opportunities and challenges relating to the UK space sector, including:
• Where the UK’s space sector has comparative strengths.
Places of historic strength for the UK are now extremely challenged, either because of competition or market changes resulting in the UK government funding and contracts being the main or even only opportunity for those areas:
The UK has historically been strong in communications but is really struggling now and players like Airbus and Viasat now need to re-imagine themselves significantly to have competitive offerings moving forward. Their business model has been damaged by Starlink, only really leaving government business as an option and that is questionable.
Small satellites is another historical strength through companies like SSTL and Clyde Space. This means that the UK now has good capability in satellite manufacture but has failed to realise a significant satellite constellation business beyond OneWeb which has now been sold. This continues to be a useful capability but without constellation requirements the opportunities are limited.
Earth Observation is going to be a very difficult market for the UK to create significant differential advantage given the existing companies from other nations. The market remains small and is unlikely to grow significantly.
The UK is strong at space sustainability (mainly focussed around space debris mitigation / removal and associated regulation) but there is somewhere between a negligible and zero market for this until significant economic infrastructure is established in space (the opportunity that unlocks this is large infrastructure in space – see below). Sustainability is necessary but not sufficient and presently efforts toward sustainability are overweight and will entirely need to be funded by government until there is large infrastructure in space with economic rationale to do something.
With this context around historical space sector opportunities, skipping to an in-space economy and the next generation of systems offers both an opportunity and an imperative for the UK. Two areas that the UK has strengths and could be a world leader are:
In Space Assembly and Manufacture (ISAM) for large infrastructure – The UK is strong at ISAM (particularly for close proximity operations). However, the real ISAM opportunity is around large infrastructure in space for things like space-based solar power, datacentres, direct to mobile communications (not sustainability[1]), and new materials development in microgravity. If the UK drives toward the ability to assemble large infrastructure in space then the economic growth opportunities are huge and it will unlock the ISAM for sustainability opportunity too. Importantly, these opportunities also bring in major revenues from terrestrial needs, meaning that the UK can credibly pursue these opportunities commercially with government stimulation but not needing perennial government funding (the UK cannot go toe to toe with other nations on government investment). 2050 market sizes are offered in the image to the left but all these areas have immediate opportunities as evidenced by the level of venture capital investment going into each of these areas[2].
Power in-space – With launch constraints evolving, the next big constraint in space is power. Through companies like Rolls Royce (space nuclear) and Space Solar (space-based solar power) the UK has two genuine world leaders and power in space in all forms could be a focus and opportunity for the UK.
Space Based Solar Power - Space-Based Solar Power (SBSP) is a transformative technology, harvesting vast solar energy in space, and beaming it to Earth day and night, through all seasons and weather. SBSP is in the National Space Strategy and it can deliver a huge range of benefits for the UK space sector.
Recent concept studies for UK, European Space Agency (ESA) and others have shown that SBSP offers clean, safe, secure, and affordable baseload energy, with low environmental impact and a carbon footprint comparable with or lower than other renewables. SBSP is a new energy generation stream that can make a major contribution to the future UK energy balance if we are to achieve Net Zero with reliable and affordable energy for homes and industry. Furthermore, the technology has many broader use cases, including supporting lunar and deep space missions.
The UK has a world leading SBSP system design, plus strong potential in all relevant disciplines from Photonics, Radio Frequency (RF), Power Electronics, and WPT to Space including In Orbit Services & Manufacture. Importantly, the UK has the right innovation environment including a strong and forward-thinking financial sector, and world leading space regulation that can enable this to happen. The Space Energy Initiative (SEI) has bought together more than 90 key entities from the energy and space industries, academia, and government that can enable this opportunity and deliver strong future UK supply chains.
Space Solar is a global leader in SBSP with the most engineered design. Space Solar has a five year plan to be delivering an initial 30MW system.
Delivering SBSP opens up a range of space sector opportunities based on large infrastructure in space. Things like large solar arrays for datacentres in space or next gen satellite communications are opened up by delivering on the Space Solar roadmap. There are huge benefits on the journey (143,000 high value job years) and new industries in wireless power and large space infrastructure. It is a no-regrets move for the UK.
Other cross cutting areas of comparative advantage for the UK are:
Engaging non-space sectors – The UK is good at engaging other sectors that can benefit from space and taking a commercial approach compared with other countries. In the new era in space that is evolving, this is doubly important with the key thing being securing capital flows from markets with deep pockets and needs such as energy and healthcare.
Regulation – The UK has been strong at using regulation to develop new markets.
Finance – The UK has a world leading financial sector that we need to leverage toward the opportunity in space. The UK cannot go “toe-to-toe” with other countries by increasing government investment in space. Consequently, we need to find applications that enable largescale commercial finance to be directed at the UK’s space ambitions where we can enjoy sustainable competitive advantage.
• How the UK’s space sector’s growth can be supported.
The UK space sector has a big opportunity ahead but needs a major re-imagination and redesign as some of the major players have “driven their businesses off a cliff”. The transformation that has been occurring in the sector has been clear for a number of years but incumbents (Airbus, Viasat etc) have been unable to change due to path dependency of their business models/shareholders. The UK hence needs to think of its space sector as comprising 50,000 great people but one in which new commercial vehicles need to be established to enable future success.
Some things that the UK could do to drive success include:
Unlock the city and UK’s financing capability - The UK can unlock the City to finance this future - and it must - as it can’t invest at the same level as that of other governments. Through innovative commercially driven public/private partnerships we will be staking a claim in future prosperity for UK plc and for UK citizens. The National Wealth fund is well positioned to support this. If the UK doesn’t unlock the City now and pursue these new opportunities at pace, others will, barriers will be built, and the UK will struggle to have any material role in the future sector. Conversely, if it does, then capabilities, businesses, and finance will be anchored in the UK that gives the UK key options and capabilities when longer-term opportunities in the space sector become realistic.
Develop a long-term view/strategy (but be adaptable) – The space sector is going through a massive step change. The UK needs to set a long-term vision and to drive toward it (the current vision and defence and security focus is very short-term). There is presently no clear direction for the community to get behind. Some good things are happening such as prioritisation against capabilities but there is not a clear vision of where the UK wants to get to and this really needs to include consideration of the large space infrastructure opportunities that are developing.
Pick winners – The UK needs to pick some winners and get behind them such that they can grow into global leaders. The current UK industrial policy involves being extremely hands off to avoid being seen to be unfair. This then leads those businesses to be sold to foreign owners. At the point the foreign owners say that they are going to pull out because there is not enough government support then the government steps in. The result of this is that the UK has to pay to mitigate all of the downside but gets none of the upside. We really need to back some home grown businesses and “be more French”.
Develop the big vehicles – The current UK industrial approach from an R&D perspective tends to be support for underpinning technologies. This rarely results in the UK creating the major businesses that can crowd in private and public finance to be a global success. This is akin to the government trying to encourage house building by funding competitions to develop better bricks. We hence miss the big businesses. The government needs to be bolder, back itself and be more interventionist.
Grow some UK leaders – Linked to the above, the UK needs to grow the next generation of leading businesses. This involves backing businesses like Space Solar, Space Forge, BioOrbit and others.
Pursue large space infrastructure – The next era in space is all about large modular infrastructure (space-based solar power, datacentres, direct to mobile communications). By pursuing large infrastructure generally, the UK will unlock a range of opportunities and provide the need for wider ISAM capability. This opportunity will drive the development of major new businesses and fix the broken industry structure and innovation ecosystem in space. The UK can stimulate the development of primes and operators at the top of the food chain in these new sectors from space-based solar power to asteroid mining. The UK government can stimulate the science base, enable the demand, catalyse finance, and the system will do the rest, crowding in finance and pushing capital and high value jobs down through UK and wider supply chains.
Be careful about a single delivery body – There are rumours about a single delivery body in the UK. Whilst this sounds beguiling in terms of reducing costs and increasing efficiency we need to be careful not to lose the innovation and diversity and focus on economic growth. The big risk is that the single body becomes too focussed on defence and security needs and the voice of Airbus (European and ultimately not organised to act in UK interests) is too strong. There is strong support for the thesis that part of the lack of commercial growth of the sector from the 1970s to 2010 was because of the role of space primes and them being too close to defence. Those companies are good at delivering a range of high reliability, few-of-a-kind products, that are funded by governments but very poor at true commercial delivery which is where the major space sector opportunities are moving toward. There will continue to be the need for defence related services in space but the major economic opportunities will be elsewhere in the things that defence assets will defend such as energy from space and other large infrastructure. If the UK aligns itself too much behind defence and existing large primes it will be saying goodbye to any material role in the future space sector. If a single delivery agency is pursued it is ultimately all about how that single body is set-up but this alignment to the voice of a space prime would be a major concern and likely outcome.
• Trends in the global space economy and how these may affect the UK’s space sector.
As we look forward, ever more of the major challenges we face as a planet will have solutions, or parts of solutions, from space (energy, resources, climate change, connectivity, new materials).
We have seen orders of magnitude of change in the space sector in the last decade but the changes in the coming decades will dwarf these. We are about to enter an unprecedented era of infrastructure and economic development in space enabled by even cheaper launch and the ability to assemble and manufacture in space. SpaceX’s Starship and other launchers will drive launch costs down by yet another two orders of magnitude which will completely revolutionise the way space-based operations work.
There are a number of major trends impacting the sector.
Starship and heavy reusable launch – this is going to transform the sector and open an era of large infrastructure in space with launch costs forecast to fall by a further one to two orders of magnitude with rapid and full reusability of heavy lift rockets.
The level of investment in space is going to increase enormously over the next decade. Other countries, notably the US and China, are investing heavily in space stations and the Moon. Space is the “ultimate high ground” which is critical from a military perspective and offers the long-term prospect of providing fuel for propulsion to grow an in-space economy.
Large infrastructure in space - Many nations are now starting to look at large infrastructure opportunities. In the US, companies are raising finance and getting support for datacentres in space, space-based solar power, space stations and many others. China is talking about a kilometre scale array by 2028. Investors are talking about this now being the time of large infrastructure. The UK needs to get behind this too and not listen too strongly to the voices of the legacy space sector in the UK.
Defence interest growing – Space is now an active war fighting domain. Commercial and geopolitical interests in space are growing requiring greater need for defence, alongside the strategic military advantage that space also delivers.
Commercial growth – commercial opportunities are developing quickly and new sectors are going to be able to use space in different ways from energy (space solar power) to health (pharmaceuticals in space) to mining (asteroids). These are material new ways that the space sector will benefit earth.
Space sustainability – sustainability is necessary but not sufficient. The UK is too focussed on this when things like debris removal make limited sense either environmentally or economically. We need to move to developing large space infrastructure so that wider ISAM capability that the UK has developed makes sense and has a market. Changing the way space is used and moving toward clustering is key as today we are not good enough at space to make it sustainable and the economics of sustainability do not work if debris is scattered everywhere.
Geopolitical – the recent changes geopolitically make navigating partnerships in the space sector really hard for the UK. Choosing the right partners is key.
Power – power in space is going to become the next major constraint after launch. The UK has an opportunity for leadership through organisations like Space Solar and Rolls Royce.
• How the UK may capitalise on new space technologies, such as nuclear engines, space-based solar power, in-space manufacturing, resource extraction, active debris removal, in-orbit servicing and artificial intelligence.
The space sector has changed enormously, increasing significantly in importance globally for economic growth, security and international partnership. From an era focused on developing low-Earth orbit satellite constellations, the space industry is now seeking to capitalise on those constellations to deliver growth and societal benefit, and to build large, new infrastructure in space for next generation services and to create an in-orbit economy. There are ambitious, generation-shaping, opportunities on the horizon and with bold decisions and innovative partnerships and financing, major new markets and opportunities will be created.
This will lead to the development of a new economic frontier whose size will ultimately dwarf that of economic activity on Earth. The barriers to entry are beginning to emerge even at this early stage.
The opportunities listed above should be pursued in a natural order which is important to consider.
Debris removal and servicing come first to build capability in close-proximity operations. However, there is no market for sustainability and the real economic prize is ultimately in large infrastructure development. The UK has done enough here and needs to massively reduce focus on sustainability (it is necessary but not sufficient) and next move to...
Large infrastructure in space – this includes things like space-based solar power, data centres, in-space, in-space manufacturing etc. This is the key next step as many of these systems are large and hyper modular. This allows the learning to help us get good at space, and to channel in funding from large terrestrial markets like energy and healthcare. The large infrastructure also imposes logistics needs which provides a market for the close proximity operations capability developed above. It will also start to provide a market for nuclear power in space.
Once we are good at space, the ability to mine asteroids then quickly comes into play, alongside exploration and population of other bodies in the solar system.
The next step is large infrastructure and this endeavour will underpin the UK’s economic and geopolitical interests for decades to come.
The UK has the key capabilities needed for success. We have companies, research strengths, and the skills from sustainable space logistics to assembly to power delivery:
Ability to capitalise on strong In-Orbit Services and Manufacturing (IOSM) capabilities.
Scope to lead in sustainable space logistics. The UK is a leader in robotic operations in space (six of the first ten IOSM missions were UK-led or had UK involvement).
Multiple UK-based companies that could deliver complex, commercial, IOSM missions.
World-leading companies like Rolls Royce that can provide power and propulsion and Space Solar in terms of wireless power.
UK industry agility and risk appetite. Unique UK ecosystem covering various levels of assurance from lower cost solutions to large prime capabilities.
UK is a leader in regulation and insurance which is key to unlocking the space economy.
• Opportunities, challenges, and potential for growth in the different sub-sectors operating in the space sector, including:
Satellite communications services; Challenges with Starlink having taken much of the market. Existing players in the UK need a rethink and may never be to retake any of the market.
Space manufacturing; Satellite manufacturing is becoming commoditised and most nations have their own capability which limits utility.
Space launch and the development of UK launch sites; Essential for UK sovereignty. Small payloads and polar orbits are limiting factors. May need to consider heavy reusable launch from a UK island territory.
Earth observation; Limited market beyond defence.
Downstream uses of space technology by businesses, individuals, and government; Growing. Broader public awareness needed.
In-space manufacturing; This is a nascent sector but will grow. Assembly in space is closer to market and with a greater range of applications – space solar power, datacentres etc.
Space-related financial, legal, and regulatory services. This is a UK strength and something we should maximise. Other nations will naturally develop their own capabilities.
2. From a business perspective, the opportunities and challenges resulting from operating in the UK, including:
One of the biggest challenges for the UK is that the UK narrative is dominated by Airbus as the major space prime. They have strengths in what they can do but their voice is too loud despite their business now being in a difficult situation.
• Access to capital – the opportunities for, and availability of, investment in both emerging and established businesses.
Access to scale of capital for early-stage businesses is a challenge compared with the US. The next era in the space sector is about large infrastructure and the financing systems needs to be able to support infrastructure businesses which it is not today. We need to find better ways to fund the early days of infrastructure businesses and to find ways to bring public and private finance together at scale.
• Government relations – the level of engagement from and with the government and the ease of collaborating with relevant departments.
One of the things the UK has done much better than other nations to date is firstly to take more of a commercial approach and secondly to bring all areas of government together that could benefit from space (National Space Council). Space is just a medium and can provide benefits to a whole range of areas. Recognising this and bringing those sectors toward space so that they can benefit (and space gets the money flows from those sectors/needs) is key to any future UK success.
• Regulation – whether the UK’s regulatory environment prohibits or enables growth.
The UK has been a leader in regulation and importantly in using regulation as a market enabler. Innovation and flexibility in regulation continues to be an attractor to the UK, combined with the fact that the UK is seen as credible and rigorous enough (a licence from the UK is a good thing).
In the changes we are going to see in the space sector around development of large infrastructure in space, regulation can be a key enabler and lever for the UK.
We need to be careful about how strongly we back sustainability as part of the regulatory framework. Sustainability is necessary but not sufficient and we arguably need to get good at space in order to make it sustainable. What is key is that sustainability measures linked to the daft paradigm for how space is used today (scatter stuff as far apart as you can as long as you can de-orbit and pollute the atmosphere) do not come in the way of common sense for the new paradigm that is coming. De-orbiting is not what is needed or sensible for many things to come and keeping assets in space, ensuring they can manoeuvre and driving toward a circular economy in space are what is needed for the future.
• Market access – whether UK-based firms have adequate access to international markets to allow them to scale-up.
The size of the “home” market is a challenge for UK businesses. However, the UK is well regarded internationally and helping businesses to access international markets is something the government does well. The challenge for the UK with scaling businesses is that unless the UK government puts in enough capital itself then the economic returns are commensurately shared with partner nations. This is something for the government to consider as it develops longer term plans.
For Space Solar in delivering energy, geopolitical links are going to be key and we welcome government engagement and support in this area.
• International competition – the ability of UK firms to compete against firms based in other countries.
The US is a long way ahead in terms developing and supporting innovation and new businesses. The two main differences are in scale of capital invested (public and private), the risk appetite of capital invested (public and private), and the role of government as a customer for early products/innovations. The size of the “home market” then also comes into play.
More broadly, UK firms are able to compete internationally but we haven’t seen a breakout UK space business for a long-time and that probably does point to a problem. We had leaders in SSTL and Clydespace but they weren’t really supported scale compared to global peers. Many of our current exciting businesses are not UK businesses (Astroscale, De-Orbit etc).
The UK needs to re-imagine its space sector and get behind businesses that could be breakout businesses in the way the sector is evolving. These are businesses such as SpaceForge, BioOrbit and Space Solar. They are all potentially substantial businesses that international partners would be interested to work with the UK on and can become global success stories.
Current geopolitics is likely to lead to a more closed system. In that context, the UK government needs to be a much more demanding customer. Demanding customers (asking for ambitious things) is one of the key things to drive innovation and economic growth beyond just depth of pockets.
3. Existing international partnerships that the UK is involved in, and the potential for future partnerships with both state and commercial actors.
Space is strong for international partnerships. With the changing geopolitical relationships, the UK needs to think hard about partners.
ESA – ESA is the main partner for the UK but despite what economic analyses show, it is not a good relationship for the UK outside exploration missions. It is easy to show things like reasonably strong returns on pounds invested but for the more important indicators in terms of value, such as the unicorn space companies that are UK based or the nationality of the space primes that drive the decisions it is a fairly bleak picture. The UK is very much a junior partner that is allowed to do the things that the real decision making nations and organisations (Germany, France, Airbus, and Thales) are happy for us to do. We have very limited strategic autonomy and a lot of leakage of good ideas. Being part of ESA could work but the whole georeturn approach is terrible for creating a competitive sector and leading companies. We would encourage the UK to fund more of it own missions and to use ESA much more selectively.
NASA – relationships were growing with NASA but with current US policies NASA is unlikely to be a reliable partner. However, the US has incredible dominance in space launch and hence staying close to the US is key.
With the range of favourable relationships that the UK has, developing partnerships with countries like India, Canada, Japan and others are likely to be positive routes.
From a Space Solar perspective, international partnership is important and some of the key opportunities include strong potential with Canada, Japan, Saudi and the US (lunar power):