Supplementary Written Evidence Submitted by Bristol Care Homes

(CLL0016)

Questions for Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance

1 Would you accept that the lack of PPE available to care homes at the start of the pandemic in March led to over 20,000 deaths in care homes, and that, as subsequent evidence of its use shows, these deaths would have been avoided had PPE been available?

2 Given the long threat over the last decade of a coronavirus pandemic, are you on record as having urgently advised the government to build stocks of PPE prior to the pandemic?

3 Do you consider that a full trace, test, and isolate system, if implemented urgently from March onwards, would have led to lower subsequent mortality, and lower cost from whole cohort group quarantining of untested people?

4 Are you on record as having urged for such a complete trace, test and isolate system to be implemented?

5 You describe the proposed strategies of other eminent medical scientists who propose a targeted protection strategy as an alternative to repeat lockdown strategy, as impractical and unethical. Have you worked through your challenge with Drs Gupta, Kulldorff, and Bhattacharya?

6 ONS data shows that to date a total of 26,239 excess deaths occurred in care homes. If we assume that 5,000 of these may be cases of co-morbidity, it might be reasonable to conclude that 21,239 died from Covid-19. This represents 52% of the 40,976 excess deaths due to Covid. Do you not accept that care homes are now well protected with low current infections, demonstrating that targeted protection can work ethically for over 50% of vulnerable people?

If so, can this strategy not be extended to avoid the 10,149 excess Covid deaths amongst >80s, thus protecting an additional 25% of vulnerable people, ie reaching 77% coverage by targeted protection?

7 The first wave saw infections/day in April of some 5,000/day lead to around 350 deaths/day in May, ie 7% of infections. The second wave recorded a 7-day moving average mortality on 3 November of 269, following an infection rate throughout October of around 14,000/day, ie 2% of infections.

In your view, is this due to

Insufficient recording of the true infection rate in April, which was in fact much higher, so that the one-month lag mortality/infection rate was therefore much lower in the first wave?
A higher proportion of non-vulnerable people has been infected in the second wave?
Vulnerable groups have been better protected in the second wave, leading to lower mortality?

Do you accept that the second wave appears to be less deadly?

8 You say that science cannot tell us why the UK mortality rate per million population is currently 695 compared to the German rate of 130, ie UK has experienced 5.3 times German mortality. UK is currently recording 4.5 times the German rate. If science cannot explain such a huge significant epidemiological phenomenon, how can we rely on science to forecast future outcomes of the pandemic for UK policy?

9 Similarly, why does the UK experience such large regional differences in infection rates of such a contagious virus in such a densely populated country? Wouldn’t science expect a more homogenous pattern of regional infection?

(October 2020)