Written evidence submitted by Professor Sonia Bhalotra

(University of Warwick) (VAWG0070)

The case for prioritizing prevention and embedding evaluation into the Government’s VAWG strategy.

This submission addresses two key findings of the National Audit Office (NAO) report:

1.      Prevention: In Paragraphs 3.9-3.11 on “Prioritising Prevention” the NAO notes the limited understanding of “what works in preventing VAWG,” the slow progress of research projects in this area, and a lack of priority given to activities to prevent VAWG “in the first instance”

Historically, policy around VAW has taken a reactive approach focused on rehabilitation of victims, but I would argue that a proactive approach focused on prevention could achieve significant change. I’d further argue that an effective preventative approach must be grounded in a scientific understanding of the causes of VAW.

2.      Evaluation: In Paragraphs 3.12-3.22 on “Monitoring and Evaluation”, the NAO notes that there has been no systematic evaluation of the VAWG strategy and Domestic Abuse Plan, citing competition for resources and budget challenges.

I have expertise in evidence creation and policy evaluation. My research assimilates, links and analyses large, representative administrative and primary data on VAWG to identify drivers of VAWG and, thereby, proposals for what works.

Introduction and Credentials

My research on VAWG includes analysis of domestic violence and workplace sexual harassment. My research investigates the importance of employment (or financial independence), social isolation, mental health problems, and exposure to misogyny on social media. Among policies I am evaluating are legislation that subsidises employers who hire victims of domestic abuse, and legislation that makes firms liable for workplace sexual harassment.

My scientific expertise is in economics, policy evaluation and behavioural science. I use experimental approaches to identify causal processes and the role of legal, social and political institutions in delivering change. My research on VAW is embedded within my broader suite of expertise, represented in high-level publications on gender equality, health (including mental health), labour markets, social mobility and the political economy of representation.

I have a large ongoing programme of research on violence against women and girls (VAWG) for which she has been awarded 2.5 million euros by the European Research Council Advanced Grant scheme. A priority of my work is to acquire and generate under-used and unavailable data that allow me to address under-studied questions. I analyse these data using a mix of policy experiments and field, lab and survey experiments to identify what causes what. My ultimate aim is to produce a robust tapestry of evidence to guide policy and further scholarship in this domain. There is a growing consensus – in the UK and further afield- around prioritising VAW in policymaking. Creative new strategies are being used in many countries. However, these are seldom subject to scientific evaluation, leaving the evidence base rather thin.

I gained my PhD at Oxford. I am on the Council of the Royal Economic Society, Research Fellow at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London, Fellow of the UK Academy of Social Sciences, Fellow of the International Economic Association, and on the European Economic Association’s Committee for Women in Economics. I am also co-Investigator on the UKRI-funded research centre CAGE at Warwick. My research is on the UK and also on a wider international scale.

Response to the NAO report with some particular suggestions:

1. Prioritising Prevention

In Paragraphs 3.9-3.11 of Tackling Violence Against Women and Girls, the NAO notes the limited understanding of “what works in preventing VAWG,” the slow progress of research projects in this area, and a lack of priority given to activities to prevent VAWG “n the first instance”.

1.1 My research demonstrates that (a) job displacement among men increases the risk that they commit domestic abuse; (b) job loss among women increases the risk that they fall victim to domestic abuse. We show that job protection (relevant to zero hours contracts) and unemployment benefits have the potential to reduce domestic abuse, so long as benefit receipt is conditional on seeking work or volunteering (Bhalotra et al 2022). The latter is important as it takes men out of the home, builds their mental health and contributes to the community/the economy.

1.2 I find evidence consistent with isolation from social networks being a factor in domestic violence. This- together with the uptick in unemployment during the covid pandemic- contributes to explaining the rise of domestic violence during lockdown (Bhalotra et al 2024).

NHS prenatal groups have been successful but later in life, many women find themselves alone, putting them at greater risk of falling victim. I propose greater investment in community building with a focus on fostering safe environments for women to connect.  I will be evaluating policy design and impact in a field trial (a randomized control trial).

1.3 I have research in progress identifying effects of depression and anxiety on (a) committing domestic violence and (b) being victim of domestic violence (Andersen et al in progress).

1.4. Women who are victimized once have a highly elevated risk of being victimized again. It is important to understand why women do not leave abusive partners, a key factor in repeat victimization. Is it that they (mistakenly) believe the violence will not recur? Do they lack faith in the justice system? Do they perceive support for victims as short term and inadequate? I have ongoing research on this, and have designed a survey to shed light on women’s beliefs and expectations (Bhalotra, Delavande et al. in progress).

I propose that the domestic violence module in the Crime Survey of England and Wales CSEW be extended to ask questions such as indicated above. These provide insight into the internal and external constraints that women face and the role of information frictions. These are ingredients of a prevention strategy.

1.5 With a colleague at Warwick, I have designed research identifying the extent to which misogyny on social media acts to promote violence against women and girls (possibly through normalization of it). Importantly, we experimentally investigate how this can be modified (Bhalotra and Stalinski 2024).

1.6 I recommend that workplace sexual harassment be firmly integrated into VAWG strategy, rather than seen as a separate issue.

Between a third and a half of all women in the UK report having experienced sexual harassment at the workplace at some point in their careers (see Trade Union Congress Reports of 2016 and 2024; and the Government and (In)equalities Survey of 2021). There is evidence that sexual harassment can have lasting harm on the mental health and careers of women, and that it can hurt the economy.

2. Monitoring and Evaluation

The NAO report notes that in addition to budget constraints, a lack of quality data available limits the Home Office’s understanding of the impact that the VAWG strategy and Domestic Abuse Plan are having. The Home Office uses Crime Survey England and Wales (CSEW) estimates as its primary indicator of the prevalence of VAWG.

2.1 Recognition of the paucity of evidence in this area was one of the key drivers for my ERC-unded VAWG research project. Measurement, monitoring, research and evaluation are vital to inform effective policy-making.

2.2 I am evaluating recent legislation in Italy that offers a two-year payroll tax cut to employers if they hire female victims of abuse. The idea behind the policy is to encourage women who are on welfare support and/or housed in public shelters to transition into more sustainable financial independence through preferential hiring (Bhalotra, Delfino et al. in progress).

2.3 I am fielding a large representative survey of UK citizens (and a smaller survey of policymakers) designed to identify people’s understanding of workplace sexual harassment and the policy framework for addressing it. We also run a survey experiment to modify any belief biases and identify the potential to move these to increase policy support for action on sexual harassment

2.4 I am evaluating how much workplace sexual harassment harms productivity in the economy, and how legislation such as the UK’s Worker Protection Bill of October 2024 that makes employers responsible for prevention might change their decision-making. In particular, I look at whether employers become more reluctant to hire women, and whether their productivity suffers.

2.5 The Government has begun to pilot the embedding of domestic abuse specialists in 999 call control rooms (Home Office, 2025). My research set in India and other research set in Brazil show that a broadly related but different policy of setting up women-only police stations where women can report domestic violence increases reporting by up to 29 per cent and tends to cause deterrence. (Amaral, Bhalotra & Prakash, 2021) It will be important to fully evaluate these pilots to see if similar changes are seen in the UK.

Conclusions

My research demonstrates how to can identify causes, and how to design and evaluate policies to (a) prevent VAWG, and (b) rehabilitate victims of abuse in a more sustained manner. It is imperative to extend data collection and improve the UK evidence base

Cross-cutting interventions that I discuss include extension of unemployment benefits (to men and women); incentives for employers to hire victims of abuse; community building to improve access to real-life social networks; expansion of IAPT or other access to mental health support; and changes to public opinion, alongside criminal justice reforms.

Recommendation: The Home Office should identify and commission data collection and research focused on understanding the causes of domestic violence so as to formulate evidence-based policy, in particular, to establish preventative activities as part of VAWG scheme. It should evaluate its activities so as to constantly update and improve impact.

References

Amaral, S., Bhalotra, S., & Prakash, N. (2021). Gender, crime and punishment: Evidence from women police stations in India (No. 14250). IZA Discussion Papers. Available at: https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/236281

Andersen, L, S Bhalotra, M Daysal, L Nassal, M Trandafir (in progress). Mental health and domestic violence. Mimeo. University of Warwick.

Bhalotra, S., Britto, D., Pinotti, P., & Sampaio, B. (2022). Job displacement, unemployment benefits and domestic violence. Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming. https://www.restud.com/job-displacement-unemployment-benefits-and-domestic-violence/

Bhalotra, S., Brito, E., Clarke, D., Larroulet, P., & Pino, F. (2024). Dynamic impacts of lockdown on domestic violence: Evidence from multiple policy shifts in Chile. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1-29. Available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4114465

Bhalotra, S. and M. Ridley (2024). Perceptions of Workplace Sexual Harassment and Support for Policy Action. Pre-registered report submitted to the Journal of Political Economy: Microeconomics

Bhalotra, S and M Stalinski (2024). Misogyny and violence against women- evidence from a social media experiment. In progress.

Bhalotra, S., M Chatterjee, K Mahajan, D Walia, F Wang. (2023). Firm responses to legislation on sexual harassment. Mimeograph. University of Warwick.

Bhalotra, S., A Delfino, E Rubolino, M Sandi, A Stegmann (in progress) Evaluation of Italy’s payroll tax subsidy designed to encourage the hiring of female victims of domestic abuse.

Bhalotra, S.,D Clarke, A Delavande (in progress). Do belief biases contribute to perpetuation of domestic violence? Mimeograph. University of Warwick.

Bhalotra, S., S Gulesci, V Khandewal (in progress). Social networks and domestic violence- a field trial.

Home Office (2025). First domestic abuse specialists embedded in 999 control rooms. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/first-domestic-abuse-specialists-embedded-in-999-control-rooms

February 2025