Written evidence submitted Nigel D Cook (PEC0002)
December 2024
Written evidence submitted Nigel D Cook (PEC0002)
The writer of this briefing paper is a Subject Matter Expert on Programme Management.
It is considered that the prison estate is under severe pressure due to the increasing numbers of offenders receiving consecutive custodial sentences and that this pressure will worsen over the next few years given the forecasted increase in the number of prisoners needing to be accommodated.
The attached short paper overleaf sets out a proposal which would address the current and forecast issues with the Prison Estate by supporting Care Leavers to transition to Adult life and thus avoid interacting with the Criminal Justice System. My proposal will result in a reduction in the size of the prisoner population and thus relieve pressure on the prison estate.
A Strategic Outline Case is available which covers this proposal in more depth.
Issues:
The Prison Estate is under severe pressure with a Jan 2024 population of 87,538 prisoners. The prison population is set to rise to at least 94,600 prisoners by March 2028. [Extract from Ministry of Justice forecast at Endnote 1]. The forecast increase in prisoner numbers will not be able to be safely housed within the current estate.
Care leavers form a much higher than expected proportion of prisoner numbers and innovative action is needed to help Care leavers to successfully transition from Care to Adult life. Reducing the numbers of Care leavers committing criminal offences would reduce the forecast increase in prisoner numbers and hence reduce pressure in the prison estate and avoid the need for the prison estate to be increased in size.
Recommended New Policies:
Care leavers to be provided with Fixed Term Appointments in the Civil Service at Administrative Assistant level across the UK (or in the NHS at Band 2 level as trainee health care assistants). This will enable Care leavers to transit better to adulthood and remove vulnerable Care Leavers from being susceptible to corrupting influences caused by unemployment and/or the loss of day-to-day care and guidance from parental figures.
Benefits: Reduction in size of the prison population.
Deliverability: HIGH - No impact on public services.
Cost to HM Treasury : NONE - Recommended option would deliver savings against current expenditure (See outline financial modelling on last page).
The Office for National Statistics has reported [end-note 2] that of the UK prisoner population, Looked-after children, also known as children in care, were more at risk of interacting with the criminal justice system during early adulthood than their peers. Among looked-after children, over half (52%) had been convicted of a criminal offence by the academic year they turned 24 years old. A key cause of this high rate of offending is that the “parental” care and support for looked after children effectively stops when such children leave local authority care at the age of 16. The Commons holds a briefing paper [end-note 3] on this subject. According to the Department for Education, in 2022/23, there were 48,050 care leavers in England aged 17 to 21. This translates to some 12,000 care leavers at age 16 each year. Of these 48,050 care leavers it can be forecast that 24,000 individual Care Leavers will be convicted of a criminal offence over the next few years. Action needs to be taken now to reduce this forecast level of offending which results in the prison population being increased and the prison estate being under pressure.
Reduce the numbers of Care Leavers committing criminal offences requiring custodial sentences.
Minimum cost to HM Treasury.
Delivered within this Parliament.
Do Nothing – Care Leavers will continue to interact with the Criminal Justice System and the prison estate will be unable to deal with the forecast increase in prisoner numbers.
Build More Prisons - Planning permission timescales and local authority/central government contracting timescales could not deliver the required numbers of new prisons within this parliament.
Novel – Offer all Care Leavers fixed term appointments (FTA’s) in the Civil Service at Administrative Assistant level (or in the NHS at Band 2). Such FTAs would be converted to permanent appointments if mutually acceptable to both the individual Care Leaver and the Employing Department.
Options analysis shows that the “Do Nothing” and “Build More Prisons” would not meet the requirements. The “Novel” option of “Providing FTAs for Care Leavers” would provide significant benefits to society, deliver savings against current costs and create spare prison space capacity for violent serial offenders. The financial analysis overleaf shows that total financial savings over the next 4 years would be £66M. The financial analysis does not model the additional savings that would be achieved through the elimination of repeat offenders from those being gainfully employed via FTAs. The financial analysis also does not model the savings in temporary staff currently employed by Departments at Admin Assistant level.
Dec 24 - Dec 24 : Outline of proposal submitted to Public Accounts Committee.
Jan 24 - Feb 25 : Strategic Outline Case (SOC) completed and submitted to Government.
Feb 25 - Feb 25 : SOC approved and Project Team formed.
Mar 25 - Apr 25 : Outline Business Case (OBC) submitted. OBC approved.
May 25 - May 25 : First Care Leavers and Admin Assistant posts identified.
Jun 25 - Jun 25 : Full Business Case (FBC) completed. FBC approved.
Jun 25 - Jul 25 - First Care Leavers placed into Admin Assistant posts in Civil Service and assisted into accommodation and adult working environment.
Scheduling is dependent on SOC approval and testing of assumptions.
End notes:
Written evidence submitted Nigel D Cook (PEC0002)
December 2024