Written evidence submitted by Queen’s University Belfast, relating to Renewable Energy and Net Zero in Northern Ireland inquiry (REN0019)

1.              Introduction

The purpose of this briefing is to set out a preliminary response to the NIAC call for evidence on renewable energy and net zero in Northern Ireland.

2.              Main issues

The key questions set by the Committee are as follows:

What measures need to be in place to support the prompt meeting of NI’s 2030 renewables target, taking into account the needs of both large installations and micro-generation?

What progress has already been made to put those measures in place?

How can investment in renewable electricity generation be sufficiently incentivised without driving up energy costs paid by industrial and domestic consumers?

What best practice exists elsewhere in establishing renewables support schemes for similarly sized markets and encompassing different sizes of installations?

How should any renewables support scheme interact with the Single Electricity Market, the market in the Republic of Ireland and the Great Britain market?

What legislative and administrative factors will be important in the delivery of a new renewables support scheme?

How effectively has the UK Government supported the Executive as it seeks to deliver the 2030 renewables target? 

To what extent should Northern Ireland officials be reasonably expected to take decisions in this area pending the formation of an Executive and based on Northern Ireland Office guidance? 

What might be the consequences of Northern Ireland of failing to meet its 2030 renewables target?

3.              Queen’s University Belfast Response

3.1               Introduction

As an institution committed to the principle of sustainability, Queen’s University Belfast is acutely aware of the need to make a just transition to a renewable-energy powered, net-zero economy, and therefore welcomes the opportunity to respond to this inquiry.

Queen’s is home to a broad range of expertise, both in the physical sciences and in social and political sciences, relating to sustainability, clean energy, infrastructure, planning, transport, the built environment and related issues.

In this document we will give a broad overview of our response to the inquiry, and indicate some areas in which we would welcome an opportunity to present evidence in greater detail in the near future in relation to the key questions set out by the Committee.

3.2              Key issues

The transition to a clean-energy based, Net Zero society and economy in Northern Ireland will involve a range of solutions to challenges in several spheres. These will include an engineering dimension – new developments in clean power, including wave and tidal energy; an infrastructure dimension, including planning, built environment, transport and the electricity network; and socio-political issues – the need to ensure the transition to net zero is a just one, such that the benefits are distributed widely, and any burdens are shared equitably.

Our experts can speak to these issues. To give an overview:

Much of the sustainable energy research in Queen’s takes place within the Engineering and Physical Sciences Faculty which is home to the Sustainable Energy Research Centre, led by David Rooney, Professor of Chemical Engineering in the School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering. The centre focuses on the interlinking areas of marine and bio-energy generation, future vehicle technologies including biofuels, aftertreatment solutions and batteries, and low-carbon chemical manufacturing.

Queen’s also hosts the Centre for Advanced Sustainable Energy (CASE), an industry led, multi-partner sustainable energy research centre, which funds collaborative Research & Development in sustainable energy, and bridges the gap between industry research needs and academic research offerings.

Researchers at our Marine Lab in Portaferry, a multidisciplinary research laboratory that serves multiple different schools including Biological Sciences, Natural and Built Environment, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, and Chemistry, have undertaken leading research in tidal and wave-power technology.

Researchers and academics from our School of Natural and Built environment have a wide range of expertise including planning issues, infrastructure, embedded carbon in the construction industry (Dr Siobhan Cox), wind turbines (Dr Madjid Karimirad), and the social dimensions of the low carbon energy transition (Professor Geraint Ellis).

On the social science side, the Centre for Sustainability, Equality and Climate Action (SECA) specialises in assessing the adaptation, mitigation and resilience measures needed for a transition to a low carbon, regenerative society which will limit the impacts on future generations and explores inclusive solutions which lead to truly just and equal economies and societies.

Professor John Barry, Co-Director of SECA, is also co-chair of the Belfast Climate Commission and a Co-Investigator on the Place-based Climate Action Network (PCAN). The other SCA Co-Director Dr Amanda Slevin of SECA was closely involved in the multi-partner process that led to the tabling of the first Northern Ireland Climate Change Bill in 2021, and in the discussions that informed amendments to the second Climate Change Bill, enacted in 2022.

Queen’s University as an institution is committed not only to providing expertise as our society moves towards net zero, but to achieving that goal here on campus.

3.3              A Net-Zero University

Queen's University Belfast has committed to achieving net zero as an institution by 2040. Reaching net zero emissions will require collective effort, not only from our staff and students, but with support from external partners. As an anchor institution, we want to help lead the way, with our partners, in meeting this challenge.

As a higher education institution, we have a responsibility to prepare our students for a changing and challenging future. As part of our Net Zero plan the actions we will also take include:

• improving the energy efficiency of our buildings;
• decarbonising our heating systems;
• managing the use of our buildings more efficiently;
• building and retrofitting to the highest sustainability standards;
• implementing renewable energy technologies across our estate;
• collaborating with the organisations in our supply chain to reduce the impact of what we buy;
• avoiding unnecessary business-related travel and increasing uptake of sustainable travel;
• reducing our waste and increasing recycling;
• using our University campus as a Living Lab;
• engaging the whole University community;
• working in partnership with local industry, regional and national government, and NGOs;
• ensuring we meet our targets with oversight from university leadership and transparent reporting.

3.4              Modelling net zero

In a similar way, government at all levels in Northern Ireland can and should play a leading role in modelling the transition to net zero.

In response to a Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (DAERA) consultation in 2023 on Northern Ireland’s 2030 & 2040 Emissions Reduction Targets[1], the Centre for Advanced Sustainable Energy (CASE) noted that there is an opportunity for the government estate in Northern Ireland, to not only phase out fossil fuels but seek to examine how to utilise the government estate for renewable energy production building upon the research currently being undertaken in relation to geothermal potential. Departments with large estates should seek to investigate how best they can seek to increase renewable generation and potential to tackle fuel poverty in surrounding locations.

More broadly, the challenges we face as a society involve changes to the planning system, infrastructural and engineering solutions, and a concerted effort to engage everyone within our community.

3.5               Planning system barriers

Changes to the planning system will be a key measure needed to meet NI’s 2030 renewables target. The planning system, in its current form, has been highlighted as a significant barrier to NI’s 2030 renewable target by a range of organisations, including in a recent Northern Ireland Chamber of Commerce report, Planning Improvement and Reform Position Paper (January 2024)[2].

As cited in the report,

“The planning system plays a key role in meeting our renewable energy targets and the obligations of the Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022. Northern Ireland’s Energy Strategy and the Climate Change Act set a renewable electricity consumption target of 80 per cent by 2030. Meeting this goal will require “more than doubling existing renewable generating capacity” in under 7 years, yet planning processes for regionally significant infrastructure, which deliver in excess of 30MW, have frequently surpassed this timeframe.”[3]

It has been further noted in the report that the average processing time for a regionally significant planning application has risen to 362 weeks – just under seven years. Of the 13 regionally significant applications received since 2015, eight were for wind farms, two for solar farms and one proposal for a compressed air energy storage facility.[4]

Bringing down the processing times for planning applications is essential otherwise it is difficult, if not impossible, for the 2030 targets to be met.

Reiterating the response from CASE to the 2023 DAERA consultation on Northern Ireland’s 2030 & 2040 Emissions Reduction Targets, significant attention needs to given to the well documented issues of obtaining planning for new renewable infrastructure. NI has fallen behind in UK terms in terms of installed renewables from a globally respected position less than 10 years ago. A recent publication by Renewable NI - Accelerating Renewables clearly exposes the unacceptable delays and risks developers face in adding further renewables. Ensuring that the Planning Service, both regional and local, are tasked with meeting carbon budgets may help accelerate that planning process. Constraints placed upon NIE and SONI by the Utility Regulator must be adapted to reflect the changing nature of energy demand as the NI economy evolves to meet a net zero world. This is best reflected as the demand for electricity is predicted to double by 2050, where will this growth occur and how will the infrastructure be improved to match this demand. An increase in overall ambition for renewables is also required so that we can valorise the existing resources we have to create new products for this changing world. An over reliance on the import of low carbon energy is also a cause for concern given the demand will also be reflected in other regions. Assumptions around the ease of access to curtailed wind energy and the expected cost of such may also impact ability of NI to produce sufficient green hydrogen to match the ambition within the various strategies.

CASE recommended the adoption of the energy island concept where the option exists, and noted this approach has the potential to help balance demand and ensure the ideal functioning of both local and national grid infrastructure.

3.6               Renewable electricity consumption, diversification, storage, and incentivisation

There are several aspects which are critical to the delivery of projects needed to close the gap between the current state and future (2030) target for renewable electricity consumption within Northern Ireland, according to Professor David Rooney. Evidence from stakeholder engagement points to the following areas: planning approvals, network capacity constraints, investor confidence, equipment lead times and market incentivisation. Action is required in all these to support the target.

Delivery must also consider the potential scale of interventions needed and their likely impact. At present NI consumes approximately 52 TWh (1 TWh – 1 billion kWh) of energy, 14% of which is electricity and of this approximately 3.5 TWh is generated from renewables. While the exact quantity of electricity needed to hit an 80% target will be dependent on several factors including knowledge of the uptake of both heat pumps and electric vehicles it has been estimated that total installed capacity would need approximately double its existing assets of 1.8 GW.  However, applications for new installations, as highlighted elsewhere in this response, fall significantly fall significantly short of this value.

Based on existing constraints within NI it is highly unlikely that the region will be able to deliver sufficient new infrastructure within the timeframe to achieve the target utilising regional renewable resources. Therefore, the most likely interventions relate to the introduction of new interconnector capacity with agreements for the purchase of renewables outside of NI. The LirIC interconnector project is one such example which if successfully delivered by 2029, and supported by network developments, would address the bulk of the target. If is noted that as interconnectors are not subject to the same capacity factor limitations associated with wind and solar the expected scale of this intervention (700 MW) has the potential to deliver the bulk of the target if supported by increased transmission infrastructure within NI over the period. 

From July 2022 to June 2023, Northern Ireland generated 45.5% of its total electricity from renewable sources, according to Dr Xueqin Amy Liu. Of this, wind power was the major contributor, accounting for 83.8%. However, during this period a notable 9.4% of wind energy was either unused or wasted. This situation underscores a critical challenge in energy management, that is the need to closely align electricity generation with demand.

A strategic approach to addressing these challenges involves diversifying the renewable energy mix and enhancing the distributed allocation of energy resources. By incorporating a variety of renewable sources, such as solar and biomass, alongside wind power, we can mitigate the risks associated with reliance on a single energy type, particularly given the variable nature of wind. 

Additionally, the integration of long-term energy storage solutions is crucial. These systems play a pivotal role in balancing the electricity supply and demand dynamics. By storing excess energy generated during periods of low demand, these storage solutions ensure that the energy is not wasted but is readily available for use during times of peak demand. 

A bundled policy approach that incentivises the adoption of renewable energy technologies and energy storage systems is crucial to maximise self-consumption and minimise its negative impact on the network. This approach could involve financial incentives and regulatory frameworks supporting renewable energy, electric vehicles (EVs), and storage systems, similar to those introduced by Germany under its Renewable Energies Programme and Ireland under its Micro-generation Support Scheme.

Moreover, spearheading research and innovation is pivotal in creating a smart, integrated energy system. Such a system is essential not only for reducing grid infrastructure costs but also for accelerating the journey towards achieving net zero emissions.

3.7              Transport and electrical grid

It is important to note that the existing grid does not have the capacity or access to the required amount of renewable electricity to meet ambitious EV growth. Policy could give greater consideration towards a mix of policy options and interventions, including hybrid vehicles, which can "slow charge" for ~90% of miles driven, but can use petrol, in preference to diesel for air quality and public health considerations, for range extension when needed (alleviating grid constraints), according to Dr David Laverty.

Emphasis needs to be placed on infrastructure which moves people and not vehicles. Electric public transport should be trains, trams and trolley buses, avoiding as often as possible the need for batteries and battery charging. Globally it is recognised that there is simply not enough of the critical materials required on the planet to support private ownership of EVs.

Additionally, consideration has not been given to the integration of increased renewables within the wider system.  For example, the use of biomethane as a transport fuel which is common practice in other countries. CASE has proposed the implementation of a series of largescale biorefineries that would have the capacity not only to meet the fuel requirements but support enabling infrastructure. Such biorefineries can serve as enablers to increase regional productivity and deliver additional economic opportunities by leveraging renewable electricity far in excess of the 80% target. This includes the production of green hydrogen and associated higher value products via upgrading of biogenic carbon.

Electric heating will be important in the future, representing another extra pressure on the grid - this one is likely of higher significance in terms of decarbonisation than EVs and should be a priority.

The electricity grid in Northern Ireland is unreliable outside of major population centres, which needs to be considered given the higher rurally distributed population in Northern Ireland. There needs to be a sustained maintenance programme, and this would benefit from advances in diagnostic equipment to prioritise expenditure. 

3.8               Keeping costs low for consumers

As the UK’s Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022 acknowledges, climate risks and impacts disproportionately impact the most disadvantaged communities, in rural and urban areas. This is an important consideration when thinking about the short- and long-term costs to consumers in Northern Ireland.

When considering renewables targets, attention could be given to multiple deprivation measures as a basis for prioritisation of action to bring about lower energy costs in other ways. For example, concentrating home retrofits, community- and micro-generation of renewable energy initially in areas with the lowest incomes, including in and with low-income farming communities, can help tackle fuel poverty, reduce emissions, produce positive health outcomes, and offer new forms of socio-economic regeneration.

Maximising insulation of all domestic, industrial and civic buildings is an essential first step to reduce energy demand. Support mechanisms need to be in place to enable the domestic sector to insulate, particularly for the older building stock in NI. Insulation will enable a much greater number of homes to switch to low-carbon heating which should preferentially be electricity based as the most efficient means of heating.

3.9              Consequences of failing to act

Should we fail to act swiftly enough in pursuit of a just transition to net zero, the negative consequences could be considerable.

For example, currently Northern Ireland (and Queen’s University Belfast in particular) are leaders in the agri-food sector. Queen’s University Belfast is ranked first in the UK for Agriculture, Food and Veterinary Sciences[5]. The agri-food sector in Northern Ireland is a key industry and Agri-Tech has been highlighted as a priority sector in the 10x strategy.

However, if Northern Ireland falls behind and fails to meet its 2030 targets, this will begin to have a profound impact on this sector.

Many large businesses have publicly committed to transition to net-zero; if Northern Ireland cannot demonstrate that we are keeping pace, businesses will take their investments elsewhere. For example, as Tesco works towards its 2035 net-zero target[6], it will make investment decisions in line with their net zero plan, locating in those regions capable of providing the necessary infrastructure and skilled workforce.

The example of the agri-food sector is just one area that the Northern Ireland economy will suffer if we fail to meet our renewables targets.

Even in Further and Higher Education there would be negative consequences. The importance of skilled graduates to the sector and industry reaching the 2030 targets should not be underestimated. Queen’s University Belfast has a key role in educating and preparing students for graduate positions in key organisations. Across the business sector, the supply of graduates is regularly raised as an issue. Universities in Northern Ireland have consistently highlighted the impact of the Maximum Student Number (MaSN) cap in pushing a third of Northern Irish students to England, Scotland, and Wales, for higher education, of which 66% do not return to Northern Ireland.

Graduates who do stay and study in Northern Ireland, also need to be incentivised with good, green jobs – jobs that are interesting, challenging, innovative, and with globally competitive wages. If these do not exist, graduates can and will look to work overseas. The supply and retention of skilled graduates in the renewables sector is vital for reaching the 2030 and future targets. If Northern Ireland starts to fall behind, we will lose expertise to other countries around the world, further entrenching and exacerbating the problem.

4.               Conclusion

Reaching a clean-energy based, Net Zero society and economy in Northern Ireland will include innovation in engineering – new developments in clean power, including wave and tidal energy. It will require an investment and rethink of our infrastructure – including planning, built environment, transport and the electricity network. And it will rely on taking a considered approach to socio-political issues, including people on the journey to net-zero – including the need to ensure the transition to net zero is a just one, such that the benefits are distributed widely, and any burdens are shared equitably.

Queen’s University Belfast will be a key partner in this transition. Drawing from the expertise of our academics and from our research we have highlighted in this written response the barriers that will be met in reaching the 2030 targets, ideas and projects to overcome these barriers, and the consequences to Northern Ireland if we fall behind on the transition to net-zero.

As CASE argued in their publication A Pathway to Our Renewable Future (CASE 2023), “We cannot continue to wait while others invest, at pace, to secure the jobs and green industries of the future. Northern Ireland was once a global powerhouse built on a unique combination of renewables, agriculture and manufacturing. It is time to confine procrastination to the past. The drive to net zero gives us the opportunity to repurpose our strengths and demonstrate how we can deliver a more sustainable, more prosperous, more inclusive future for the generations to come”.

5.              Sources

Sources included:

• Consultation on Northern Ireland’s 2030 & 2040 Emissions Reduction Targets & First Three Carbon Budgets & Seeking views on Climate Change Committee (CCC) Advice Report: The path to a Net Zero Northern Ireland | Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (daera-ni.gov.uk)
• 240110-Planning-Report-FINAL.pdf (northernirelandchamber.com)
• REF 2021/Times Higher Education Subject Rankings
• Tesco commits to net zero supply chain and products by 2050 (tescoplc.com)
• A Pathway to Our Renewable Future (CASE 2023)

January 2024