PCW0005

Written evidence submitted by Ceredigion County Council

Impact of population change: Ceredigion

The population of Wales grew by 44,000 (1.4%) since the last census in 2011, when it was 3,063,456; however Ceredigion experienced the highest decline in Wales, of 5.8% during this same period.  The focus of this enquiry needs to be on the areas of Wales which experienced the greatest decline which include:

• Ceredigion (-5.8%)
• Blaenau Gwent (-4.2%)
• Gwynedd (-3.7%)
• Caerphilly (-1.6)
• Anglesey (-1.2%)
• Conwy (-0.4%)
• Swansea (-0.2%)

Other areas in Wales saw a significant increase such as Newport, which saw the highest rate of population growth (9.5%) which is higher than the Wales average (1.4%) and England (6.6%), followed by Cardiff (4.7%) and Bridgend (4.5%).

Historical context

Between 1991 and 2001 Ceredigion’s population increased from 63,094 to 75,232.  This steadied off between 2001 and 2011 which experienced a very modest increase to 75,900, followed by a rapid decrease to 71,500 by 2021.  The definition of "usually resident" also changed between 1991 and 2001. In 1991 students were counted at their home address, whereas the 2001 Census counted them at their term time address. Hence when comparing 1991 and 2001 Census data, the 'student' effect needs to be taken into consideration. Although it is unquantifiable, it is likely to have slightly increased Ceredigion's population due to the high proportion of students living in the County.

The graph above demonstrates that the trend towards de-population started as early as 2001, however the rapid decent during the last decade is a matter of great concern.

The COVID-19 Pandemic may have affected some people's choice of usual residence on Census Day. These changes might have been temporary for some and more long-lasting for others. For example, the 2021 Census may have undercounted Ceredigion's student population due to the COVID-19 travel restrictions in place during enumeration. Although this cannot be quantified, it may have negatively impacted our population figures.

Ceredigion demographics

In addition to the decrease in population, data from the 2021 Census shows that the average age of our residents is significantly higher than those of the whole of Wales. 

With the exception of the ‘15-19’, and the ‘20-24’ age categories outliers (which is due to fact that Ceredigion has 2 Universities), the percentage of the population in each of the categories from ‘below 4’ to ‘50-54’ falls below the all-Wales average figures.  From age 55 and upwards, the percentage in Ceredigion is greater than that of the average for Wales which would suggest that the trend towards an acceleration of the depopulation is highly likely to continue.  Data from the census has shown that Ceredigion's population is ageing, and the working age population is shrinking. Over the decade (2011-2021), Ceredigion experienced the greatest increase in median age across Wales (from 42 to 47 years of age).

Potential drivers of depopulation

The potential drivers of depopulation and ageing population in Ceredigion, such as: continuation of negative natural change (deaths exceeding births), negative net migration is increasing (the number of people leaving the County is increasingly exceeding the number of people moving into Ceredigion), the ageing of the post WWII baby boom cohort into retirement age, the COVID-19 pandemic may have affected peoples usual choice of residence on Census Day, and Brexit may have an impact on the number of economic migrants moving into Ceredigion and Wales as a whole.

Schemes/activities underway to help reverse the declining population trend

The following schemes/activities are underway to help reverse the declining population trend, including:

• the Community Housing Scheme (aimed at providing affordable housing opportunities for younger people and first time buyers),
• the Ceredigion County Council Economic Strategy (which aims to promote a range of rewarding career paths and to set Ceredigion on the map as a great place to start and grow a business),
• Growing Mid Wales and the Mid Wales Regional Skills Partnership (working to drive investment in skills according to the local need), and the Childcare offer (which will financially support families with children between the ages of 3 and 4 in Ceredigion).

Housing

The percentage of one-person households aged 66 years and over in Ceredigion rose from 15.5% in 2011 (aged 65 years and over in 2011) to 16.5% in 2021.  This is likely linked to the ageing demographics noted earlier. In addition to this, the percentage of ‘household including a couple but no children’ increased in Ceredigion from 17.9% in 2011 to 18.3% in 2021, which goes against the grain of the regional percentage which fell from 17.2% to 16.5%.

According to the Office for National Statistics[1], most addresses in Ceredigion have one or two people living there.

Data provided by the Land Registry[2] shows that house prices in Ceredigion was £250,700 which is significantly higher than the rest of Wales,  £213,477.

Second homes in Ceredigion

Due to the fact the Holiday Let / Second Home market is a relatively unregulated industry, there is no one source of data to distinguish the exact numbers of properties that are second homes or that are rented out permanently or temporarily as holiday lets.  In order to make comparisons nationally the most reliable source of data is council tax information (with the caveat that this is dependent on owners accurately registering the correct typology and it is likely that this is not always the case.)

For the 2023/24 Budget process there were 33,856 chargeable properties in Ceredigion in total.  Of these, 2,289 (6.8%) were either Second Homes or Long-Term Empty Properties.

Unsurprisingly the highest proportions of Second Homes in Ceredigion are generally in the coastal areas:

The number of Long-Term Empty Properties in Ceredigion is generally greatest in volume in the more urban areas:

The age bandings for the current Long Term Empty Properties as at 30/06/23 in Ceredigion is:

Household Income

According to the Office of National Statistics, the median occupied address net income (for referencing tax year ending 2018) was £24,222, which is lower than the Wales overall figure of £26,427.

The combination of high property prices and low incomes mean that young people are often priced out of the local property market, which contributes towards the reason that young people leave the area with a significant population decrease following the peak aged 20-24, which does not recover until age 55, meaning that there are fewer economically active people residing in Ceredigion.  Ceredigion has the third highest housing affordability ratio nationally (in 2022 it was 8.27).

This impacts upon the future workforce and recruitment challenges, as well as financial challenges associated with the cost of care for an ageing society.  It also has an impact upon the culture and lifestyle, and our aim to increase the number of Welsh speakers in what is currently a stronghold of the Welsh language.

Employment and skills

The educational attainment of Ceredigion pupils demonstrates the excellent standard of education provided, with GCSE and A Level examination results being consistently above the remainder of Wales, with 99.1% of entries graded A* - E.  The table below demonstrates the comparator of results for 2023.

However, there is limited opportunity for employment within the area, especially highly paid skilled jobs which explains the significant drop in the percentage of the population by age group from 8.9% for 20–24 year olds, to 5.1% for 25–29 year olds.  This compared to the rest of Wales which equates to 6.3% for 20-24 year olds and 6.0% for 25-29 year olds. 

There seems to be a miss-match of skills and jobs in the area which is pushing people to seek jobs elsewhere. Other factors that might be contributing to young people leaving which have been referenced in some of our consultations include: poor access to services and public transport in the most rural areas of the County (meaning over-reliance on private car); lack of affordable and suitable childcare; lack of social activities/community groups for young people; expensive for young people to live (high house prices and incomes, relatively high Council tax rates), 75% households are off the grid and rely on more expensive ways to heat their homes (e.g., oil); lack of connectivity (internet and mobile network).

The table below demonstrates that the percentage of Ceredigion residents working in Agriculture, forestry and fishing is significantly higher than that of the average for Wales.

However, rural areas are often targeted to compensate for activities which relate to urban and industrial areas such as carbon offset.  Rural areas such as Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire have seen an influx of large international corporations buying up farm-land in order to plant trees to compensate for their harmful activities.  The Welsh Government is also in the process of consulting upon plans which will require farmers to plant trees on an additional 10% of their own land in order to be eligible for the new farm payment scheme. 

Such schemes, together with the UK Governments’ re-allocation of grant funding from agriculture to ‘Levelling up’ following Brexit will impact significantly on the future of farming and agriculture in rural areas such as Ceredigion, and they will also lead to a significant reduction in the level of funding and income to Ceredigion households, which will inevitably lead to greater de-population, not to mention risks associated with food security where land currently used for the production of food is transferred to tree-planting.

Other challenges to addressing the issues of depopulation in Ceredigion

Recent regulations relating to phosphates and a failure to address these issues have resulted in restrictions to development in areas which constitute a significant geographical proportion of the authority’s area.  There is also concern that similar restrictions due to Marine SACS will mean that development will not be permitted on up to 80% of the land in Ceredigion.

Recent changes to WG Development Plans, which places on emphasis on development in populated areas also restricts development in rural areas.  The addition of a requirement for ‘other locations’ to be ‘sustainable’ such as on a bus route is virtually impossible due to the reduction in bus services and lack of transport.  This seemingly urbanisation policy is creating a hinterland in mid Wales, and these limitations to future housing development, combined with the excessive house prices in Ceredigion is clearly contributing to the level of depopulation, especially among young people. 

Addressing these issues

The terms of reference of this call for evidence asks what steps the Government should take to mitigate the challenges of depopulation in Wales.

There needs to be a thorough investigation as to the specific areas of concern rather than a generic all Wales approach with a focus on the areas which have experiences the greatest depopulation. 

This investigation should take into account matters such as:

-          The demographics and age profile of areas that have experienced the greatest % of depopulation;

-          Household income and employment – opportunities for well paid employment;

-          Affordability and accessibility of housing;

-          Legislation and policy which adversely impact upon these areas, and the possibility of applying exemptions to designated areas which have experienced the highest level of depopulation, and which are a stronghold of the Welsh language;

-          Supporting and attracting new business start-ups in Ceredigion by offering reduced business rates in targeted areas where household income is lower than the Wales average;

-          Upgrading the infrastructure of A44 and A487, in order that it becomes viable for larger industries to set up in the area, due to the high cost of transport;

-          Re-instating the rail network between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth to allow for greater opportunities for traveling to work and for socialising;

-          Enhancing the grid capacity in order to take advance of the green revolution. Ceredigion has excellent opportunities for developing tidal, wind, hydro and solar power however the current grid capacity cannot support this.

In terms of ‘migration, both from within the UK and outside the UK to enable Wales to grow its population and minimise the reduction in the numbers of people of working age’, we would argue that issues such as addressing the exodus of working age people from rural areas such as Ceredigion should be addressed in the first instance.  It is also important that those moving to areas which are a strong-hold of the Welsh language, and where bi-lingual skills are required in order to meet the needs of the residents are given the opportunity to learn the Welsh language in order to better integrate within the communities.

18 September 2023