Written evidence from Mr Graham Hill (ELV0074)
Introduction Summary.
My name is Graham Hill and I have been operating in the Auto Industry for over 40 years (73 years old), primarily in the auto finance industry gaining a reputation as a consumer champion, even appearing on Rip-Off-Britain as their vehicle finance expert, supporting the police and CPS as an expert witness in cases of fraud.
Whilst that might appear to make my answers somewhat finance biased, I have been blogging on electric cars for my clients since 2011. I have written a book on electric cars: Electric Cars – The Truth Revealed (now in its 2nd edition), I have a podcast called Electric Car Chat and I have created the world’s first electric car ChatBot.
I have an interest in the psychological effect on consumers and how this might prevent some drivers from transitioning. It is very underplayed and will seriously delay the move to electric.
Finally, to prove my credentials I have been advising Peter Hain MP (now Baron Hain) since around 2012. I’m sure he would provide a reference.
Aims
The aims of this inquiry are:
To understand how the Government will achieve its upcoming 2030 and 2035 deadlines for the phase out dates for non-zero emission vehicles, with a focus on passenger cars, as well as exploring the main obstacles and barriers to meeting these targets.
To understand the costs, alongside the benefits, associated with the 2030 phase out date, and to understand Government progress towards decarbonising car usage by this earlier date.
Questions
The following questions are intended to provide guidance for those who wish to offer their views. It is not necessary to answer all the questions, please only respond to those that are relevant to your experiences or expertise.
Government approaches
1. What are the main obstacles to the achievement of the Government’s 2030 and 2035 phase-out dates? Are the phase-out dates realistic and achievable? If not, what steps should the Government take to make the phase-out dates achievable?
Answer: Yes, the phase out dates are achievable but even if they weren’t it would be wrong to let the manufacturers off the hook. According to pundits up to 21 car manufacturers built some sort of defeat device into their diesel cars which resulted in millions of excess tonnes of NOx released into the atmosphere injuring and killing people around the world. (Nature magazine estimated 5 million tonnes of excess NOx in 2017 before it came to light that a further 20 manufacturers had done the same as VW – allegedly). The final figure could be at least 5 times as much so that indicates scant regard for human health and wellbeing.
The charger network: we have plenty of chargers with less than 15% utilisation (as calculated for my book Electric Cars – The Truth Revealed). They are just not placed in the right locations. Where chargers are needed, they are prevented from being installed due to delays in local authority planning departments of up to a year and beyond. Central government should push the agenda. The charging companies should receive greater help from the energy suppliers as one of the main problems is appropriate energy supply. Lack of central data collection from chargers doesn’t help. They are all acting independently but it may well turn out that instead of needing more ultra-rapid chargers that we need more fast chargers because a lack of fast chargers could be forcing drivers with slower charging cars onto the ultra-rapid chargers giving the impression that we need more ultra-rapid chargers. I hope that makes sense.
The big problem is lack of information. We are asking ICE car drivers to transition to electric without all the facts. We need driver familiarisation courses provided by trained driving instructors or the dealer staff, who handover cars to customers, should be trained to instructor level. If this isn’t done ICE drivers will not feel comfortable transitioning. I provided consultancy services to a driver training company in 2022 with the intention of introducing such facilities but financial help from the government would speed this along.
2. Do the 2030 and 2035 phase-out dates serve their purpose to incentivise the development of an EV market in the UK? To what extent are car makers focusing on one date or the other? What are the impacts of the deadlines on the ability of the UK supply chain to benefit and how could the Government seek to further support the development of the UK EV industry? Would the introduction of a plan with key dates and timescales support the development of the EV industry in the UK?
Answer: The introduction of Agency Selling by the manufacturers could destroy any possibility of hitting the targets. Mercedes have made it quite clear that they intend to sell their new cars to the public ‘without the need to negotiate’. I have spoken to dealer staff that have been made redundant explaining that sales staff were no longer required as the dealer will only demonstrate and handover cars in the future requiring no selling.
It was believed that by not having to negotiate it meant that you receive a consistent discount wherever you are in the country. No more excessive discounts as a result of dealers having to move stock that they’ve bought and need to liquidate quickly passing on high discounts. As all new cars will be held in stock by the manufacturer. Mercedes have made it quite clear that they will make increased profits whilst selling fewer cars.
This also means that by selling fewer cars the government target of 22% electric in 2024 will mean fewer electric cars needing to be sold. Most other manufacturers are watching to see if Mercedes can get away with charging full retail price without allowing any form of negotiation with very limited discounted ‘special offers. If the majority of manufacturers follow suit, we are in trouble. I fail to see how the CMA have not stepped into what is effectively Resale Price Maintenance. The confusion is that the manufacturer has taken the dual role of maker and end seller of their vehicles.
3. What specific national policies, regulations or initiatives have been successful, or have hindered, EV adoption to date? Are these policies or initiatives fit for purpose?
Answer: Infrastructure initiatives have not worked. A central database should have been set up to collect “demand and usage” statistics. They could then have identified public charging shortages both in charge speed and location. Where chargers were identified as being needed the government should have the powers to speed up planning permission.
Many will say that the biggest failure to date is the lack of public charger installations by local authorities. This is simply not true. Early installers of public chargers were the Scottish, but many of the early chargers already need replacing. They are slow chargers; about as fast as home single-phase chargers so require cars to be plugged in overnight. When used during the day cars will still only charge at about 15 miles in an hour. With parking restrictions, they prove to be fairly useless being able to charge just 30 miles during a 2 hour stay.
One of the failures has been the insistence of smart chargers being fitted in new builds and refurbs. This rule should have been changed to bi-directional chargers. As more di-directional cars enter the marketplace with the ability of the owners to either sell stored cheap rate electricity in the battery pack back to the grid or use cheap rate electricity to supply the home at peak times saving them money and resources. The pressure on the car manufacturers will also force them to develop cars with bi-directional ability. Nissan’s very popular Leaf is now Bi-Directional but only benefit the driver if he or she has a bi-directional charger. A grant from the government will help this situation.
Bi-Directional cars may also be of assistance if cars break down in traffic jams and they can pass across some of their stored electricity.
Greater emphasis on the psychological effect of moving from ICE cars to electric cars is needed. It’s not all about range anxiety. The government’s own figures only show average trips over 100 miles to be 1% and between 50 and 100 is also 1% but these figures are never used to challenge reports that there are not enough chargers. The AA has regularly reported that just 1% of electric car callouts are for dead drive batteries compared to around a million petrol and diesel vehicles running out of fuel every year. The distance between the furthest points north to south in the UK is less than 900 miles. Why on earth do we have range anxiety? Poor marketing. We should not be looking at the statistics in isolation and there is far too much contradiction from those with opposite agendas.
In a recent ‘myth busting’ edition of the EV Café, a famous electric vehicle podcast sponsored by several major payers pointed out that it was perfectly safe to drive through a flood in an electric vehicle. In context the point was that the car was just as safe as a diesel or petrol car. But no car manufacturer would ever suggest driving through a flood especially as 60% of those that lose their lives in a flood do so in a vehicle. Clear and precise instructions are needed, and the government should be driving this.
4. Given that the Government should apply a behavioural lens to policy—which involves people making changes to their everyday lives, such as what they purchase and use—is there a role for clearer communication of the case for EVs from the Government? If so, who should take the lead on delivering that?
Answer: I believe that we need a minister responsible for the electrification of the UK’s vehicle parc. Too many departments are fighting each other, environment, transport, treasury, energy, science, innovation and technology and I would include Health and Safety Executive given the fact that manufacturers are running loose releasing family cars that can accelerate from 0-60mph in around the same time as a Formula 1 car on roads full of potholes and little or no skid resistance given the poor frequency of road re-surfacing.
The government needs to address the problem of peak charging and work with the charging companies to find ways of spreading charging sessions throughout the day. On average the chargers are under 15% utilized – that isn’t financially healthy!
Greater information is needed. The government introduced minimum sales standards into car dealerships, audited by the Energy Saving Trust. Frankly it is pathetic. Being an authorised dealer should give electric car buyers the comfort that they will receive adequate information to fully understand the life changes, potential dangers, advantages, cost savings and implications in order to make an informed decision. The requirements on the dealers and their training is inadequate and well short of the mark.
I’ve been supplying electric cars and advice to drivers since 2011 when Tesla and the Nissan Leaf were launched. Included in those to whom I provided advice was Peter Hain MP (now Lord Hain) in around 2011 via a customer of mine. So, you have a colleague who can vouch for my credentials.
In 2019 I started to write my first book on electric cars, Electric Cars – The Truth Revealed. It launched in 2022 as a downloadable eBook (saving the planet). Around 3,000 hours of research has gone into the book. The latest version of the book for 2023 is around 40% bigger than the previous version. I have now used the book along with a number of reports and studies to create the world’s first Electric Car ChatBot which can be embedded onto any website. This, along with my supplied questions, will change the world of electric cars in the UK along with my new podcast called Electric Car Chat.
If examples are required, please let me know.
5. What is your view on the accuracy of the information in the public domain relating to EVs and their usage?
Answer: The accuracy is incredibly poor and very contradictory. Highly respected data analysts Statista reported in 2021 that more over 55’s were driving electric cars than any other age group. They reported that 55 – 65 accounted for 20% of electric car drivers whilst over 65 accounted for 24%. Virtually every other ‘survey’ suggested that the older age group struggled to accept electric cars. Often, it’s the way that questions are asked.
The government should be challenging reports and statistics, especially those in the press that give anti EV views following poorly worded questions resulting in highly biased and inaccurate results.
On the other hand, we need to be honest. We have reports that suggest that electrification of our nation’s cars are racing away comparing year on year sales. In fact, we are pathetically behind where we should be. My estimate stood at 1 million purely electric cars by the end of 2022, but we were well under that figure. The AA carried out a survey earlier in 2023 asking ICE car drivers ‘Do you feel comfortable transitioning from your current petrol/diesel car to electric?’ Just 7% said yes, even the most popular group 25 – 34 only resulted in 12% in the affirmative. Instead of achieving the 8 million battery electric cars on the road by 2030 we would only end up with 2.5 million!
Of course, the follow up question after being told no was never asked – ‘Why do you not feel comfortable?’
6. What are the overall environmental benefits that would result from achieving the 2030 and 2035 targets?
Answer: These are explained in the various government reports, the question is, will we achieve the vehicle sales in order to meet the targets? And as ICE car drivers hang on to their old petrol and diesel cars there will still be a negative impact on the environment so in order to really benefit air quality, we need to disincentivise petrol and diesel car driving. There is a price to causing harm to the atmosphere. But we must also help those who are essential car users to not be financially penalised because they can’t afford electric cars.
Clearly tailpipe emissions will reduce, and noise pollution will drop nut is that a good thing with noise emitters only coming on at 20km/hr. With rapid acceleration lives will be put in danger by cars being driven recklessly – and silently. Children need to be trained to do more than stop, look, Listen – Stop, Look, Listen and Observe. I personally believe that electric vehicles should emit an engine noise at all times in built up areas at the mild cost of a little noise pollution.
7. What are the likely costs that will be faced by consumers as a result of the Government’s phase-out dates for non-zero emissions vehicles? Are there policies or initiatives that the Government could use to specifically target barriers arising from unpredictable costs to the consumer, for example significant fluctuations in the cost of electricity, changes to road taxes, or the introduction of low emission zones?
Answer: The answer is pretty much covered by the question. But there is a far more important answer. Whenever I have questioned the Department for Transport, they have simply rolled out the stock economists answers and to be honest this is the way the question has been asked as though the only barrier is cost and that is far from the truth.
The mental challenge for a large part of the driving population is beyond measurable when considering the move from ICE to electric. I’ll give you an example. Most charging stations are exposed to the weather without a canopy. A canopy that also consists of solar panels (as some have) makes perfect sense to me. The generated electricity may be small, but it can help to offset the cost of installation.
The arguments I’ve seen over not fitting canopies range from ‘It would add cost to the charge station which would have to be passed on’ and ‘Cars are sitting there for long periods having been plugged in that only takes a few seconds.’ Utter nonsense. Suffering the elements when trying to get a charger to work and get your payment accepted can take up to and beyond half an hour. With all the sophisticated gadgetry inside the car providing more comfort than you have at home we can’t keep drivers dry when charging their cars. Not to mention the massive issues attached to drivers with mobility problems.
The real issue is that we are all brought up in the knowledge that electricity and water don’t mix so the idea of holding a DC charge cable that is soaking wet and plugging into an equally wet car is beyond an acceptable risk for many. Forget the cost – put people’s minds at rest and put a canopy overhead. It also messes your hair and outfit up when on a night out – stop thinking pounds and pence!
EV Market and Acquiring an EV
These questions relate to the UK EV market and uptake of EVs by UK consumers.
8. What are the main routes for acquiring an EV? Which aspects of these routes are working well, and which aspects could be improved?
Answer: I have a long and substantial history in vehicle finance from advising the police and CPS in cases of asset and vehicle finance fraud, appearing as the vehicle finance expert on BBC’s Rip Off Britain, writing a regular column for the Sunday Mirror and various auto magazines and national newspapers. No-one should be paying cash for electric vehicles, they should only finance using a method that enables customers to hand back cars at the end of the agreement. When Elon Musk decided to drop the list prices of his cars earlier in 2023 it wiped a fortune off all electric cars.
Just think VW and Dieselgate. When the fraud was exposed, you couldn’t sell a VW and millions of pounds were wiped off the cars’ values with compensation paid by VW to car owners. When Musk announced two price drops the trade value of an electric Jaguar iPace dropped by £10,000. Why would you want to own an electric car when the prices are so unstable? Before the pandemic up to 50% of the list price could be discounted when personal contract hire rates were calculated.
Most individuals finance their cars using dealer PCP whilst most business users use Contract Hire (leasing). The message needs to get out that thanks to an act of parliament passed in the year 2000 consumers can lease cars as cheaply as the largest fleets in the country.
The finance options are in place and working and as prices come down, they will only become more affordable but there needs to be more information on the funding methods. Whilst the lease cost for a VW ID3 was less than its equivalent petrol VW Golf, earlier in 2023, the PCP cost was much more expensive because the dealers like to make big finance profits and they always favour PCP as that allows them to manipulate naive consumers.
Installers of charge stations lease cars to bolster their failing bottom lines, which is fine but to call themselves ‘experts’ in leasing and car finance is most certainly a breach of advertising and trading standards regulations.
The FCA should take more responsibility over the range of finance being offered by dealers and brokers with training and examinations being introduced. There is also a practice by most dealers, new and used, preventing customers from using their funder of choice by refusing to invoice 3rd parties. That could save customers a great deal of money.
I must say that the provision of electric cars and leasing by brokers works remarkably well except for one element. The handover of the car to the customer who is usually simply handed the card key. The customer should receive familiarisation training so that they understand fully all the controls, how to set them up and use them.
9. What are the main consumer barriers to acquiring an EV, either through purchasing, leasing, or other routes?
Answer: There is a lack of advice provided by dealers, finance companies and brokers when it comes to financing electric cars. Preparing for finance is incredibly important. As an example, a customer missed a couple of mortgage payments due to being in hospital with Covid. No explanation and your application for finance will be auto declined. However, enter a Notice of Correction on each of your credit files, explaining what happened and an underwriter must manually look at your application. In the circumstances resulting in a better chance of being approved.
I have written a book entitled Car Finance – The Ultimate Guide awaiting a sponsor before publishing. I explain everything from using equity/pension release but not paying for the car rather using the money to finance a lease or PCP (see above) without the risk and reduced cost.
The biggest obstacle, in both the used and new market is the refusal of dealers to invoice 3rd party funders as mentioned in the answer above. If you want to take out PCP or HP but wish to finance using a cheaper 3rd party independent lender the dealer will refuse to invoice your cheaper lender. In some cases, they agree to invoice the 3rd party lender but charge a fee of up to £1,000 for simply raising an invoice. The FCA is fully aware of this but refuses to do anything about this illegal and uncompetitive practice.
As mentioned above many car manufacturers are following Mercedes and moving to ‘Agency Model’ when selling their new cars, which means that you can no longer negotiate discounts and in most cases, you are expected to pay full list price. Mercedes MD Savage said in various interviews that his customers ‘Prefer the new process’ and are ‘overwhelmingly positive’. The man is delusional! Anyone at any time has been able to buy a car at full retail price without the need to negotiate. The trouble is we will now see the manufacturers form into a price fixing cartel – as it would seem they did over diesel emissions defeat devices.
Plenty more to say on this if invited to give evidence.
10. How is the Government helping to ensure that EVs are affordable and accessible for consumers, and are these approaches fit for purpose?
Answer: The government has set sales target for 2024 across the manufacturers as a % of total sales. If the manufacturers are allowed to get away with setting up the agency cartel, then the cars will remain expensive with fewer available.
Frankly, the government shouldn’t need to do anything. In terms of leasing many cars are more than affordable having received some substantial discounts built into the rates. I recently had VW ID3’s cheaper to lease than their Golf petrol equivalent. But the purchase prices are much more if bought for cash because if a dealer heavily discounts his new cars, it will have an adverse effect on his stock of nearly new cars on his forecourt.
11. Do you think the range of EVs on offer in the UK is sufficient to meet market needs? Which segments are under-served and why? Why is the UK market not seeing low cost EVs, particularly in comparison to China?
Answer: The reason why Chinese cars are so cheap is that they have cheap labour, cheap resources, and the government subsidies their manufacturing costs. The EU is considering introducing tariffs as providing government support makes the playing field uneven. That is not the way to go in my opinion.
We had 147 models at the end of last year with 40 more models being introduced in 2023 – so there are plenty of models across all sectors. My concern is too many cars being launched in too short periods of time. You may recall what happened when Ford saw the potential tsunami of Japanese cars in the 70’s. People died!!
We are seeing low cost EV’s but to benefit from the discounts you must do as the big fleets do – lease them.
If the government can break the price fixing that would help. Especially in the used car sector where prices will be dragged up by full retail new car prices. Heavy discounts applied to new cars have traditionally fed into the used car sector.
12. What is the future role of L-segment and personal light electric vehicles, and how will that impact car ownership and usage? What is inhibiting their uptake?
No View
13. What is your assessment of the current second-hand EV market? How is the second-hand EV market projected to develop between now and the phase out dates?
Answer: This is the most difficult question to answer because the new car market that drives the used car market is very unpredictable. I’ve heard that two specialist used electric car dealers have recently shut down. A used car dealer I know finally succumbed and bought 3 electric cars with one being a Jaguar iPace. He bought the Jaguar just before Elon Musk dropped his list prices – twice! The net result – a loss of £10,000 on the one car when he traded it. With price pressure from the Chinese new electric car prices are dropping forcing down any used electric car prices held in stock until demand increases. Far too little is understood by used car dealers about electric cars causing them to avoid selling them. Especially given the fact that used car dealers sell a wide range of cars requiring a wide range of knowledge unlike main dealers who only sell their own make of cars.
There is still a misunderstanding that electric cars are simply a progression from a petrol automatic when in fact they are a whole new driving experience. With 70% of all cars in the UK being manual the step to effectively an automatic car that drives totally differently to even an automatic ICE car is for many a step too far.
There are a couple of other factors. With a lack of new electric cars available people turned to used, as that situation changed in 2023 with new electric cars more readily available sales of used electric cars fell by 30% at the start of 2023. With big strides in battery development, older cars with very limited ranges and slow charge speeds have become less attractive.
The situation may well improve as prices drop making the cars more affordable but with little known about the long-term effects on batteries there will continue to be resistance with used electric cars seen as high risk.
There is one other twist and that is the development of Graphene-Aluminium batteries. They charge much quicker than Lithium batteries and hold more energy. They can also fit into nonstandard spaces so it looks as though they could be fitted into aging used cars with very limited range and with a few tweaks to the electrics a used car could be refreshed with improved range and charge times.
To sum up prices need to stabilise before used car dealers invest in electric car stock. In the first 6 months of 2023 electric car values dropped by 33.6%. And it was the cheaper cars that dropped the most with the Nissan Leaf down 39.4%, Seat Mii down by 38.7%, Kia Soul Electric down 37.8% and VW Golf Electric down 37.3% (based on values provided by Cap HPI.
And drivers need much more information on electric cars as the concentration is on new cars and providing new car buyers with information via the inadequate minimum sales standards.
14. What is the relationship between EV leasing and the second-hand market and how do they interrelate?
Answer: Leasing is a term that generally refers to contract hire or, in the case of consumers, Personal Contract Hire (PCH). This is not such a strong product when attached to used cars for consumers. In order to maximise the advantage, the car must be VAT Qualifying allowing the leasing company to recover the VAT included in the cost of the car. If the funder can’t recover the VAT as input tax the car costs the customer 20% more on their monthly payments as the agreement is a ‘Service Agreement’ which means that repayments attract VAT. To be clear, every new car is a VAT Qualifying car which means that the lessor can automatically recover the VAT. That drops the cost of a £30,000 car to £25,000 + VAT.
Even when the used car in question is a ‘VAT Qualifying’ car it still doesn’t mean that you get a better deal than on a heavily discounted new car (the monthly rental being lower on a new car than a used car). As a broker I dropped contract hire on used cars many years ago as there was no advantage to the customer after taking into account the need for an extended warranty, breakdown cover and increased service and maintenance costs as cars get older. This may not be so great with a used electric car but with little serious historical data to call on the leasing companies err on the side of caution. Arrears and defaults happen more frequently when cars fail to work which is more likely to happen in used cars.
Having said that a lease will still protect the customer against any sudden drop in value, so it has an advantage. However, my recommendation would be to use PCP that keeps the monthly cost down whilst protecting the customer against any extreme drop in value in the unpredictable market. She also has the benefit of Voluntary Termination (VT) – handing the car back after 50% of total owed has been paid.
15. What barriers are there to achieving a sufficient supply of second-hand EVs, mindful that second-hand vehicles make up a high proportion of all vehicles purchased?
Answer: We clearly need a very buoyant used market in order to minimise lease and PCP rates on new cars. On the other hand, we need a high supply to make the cars more affordable than petrol or diesel and more attractive to used car buyers. So let me explain the situation.
I have two major concerns. The first is the number of electric cars that are being written off following a relatively minor accident. Cars are being written off by insurance companies if the battery casing is showing some very minimal damage rather than risk releasing a damaged electric car back on the road after fixing the bodywork only to find that the battery has ignited and injured or killed occupants.
The UK’s largest salvage company Synetiq explained that they are now seeing around 20 per day and increasing in 2022 compared with around a dozen every 3 days a short while ago. The cars must be isolated in areas much larger than petrol or diesel cars as they need to be checked for fire risk. When dismantling they find that the battery packs are perfectly safe meaning that around 95% of the removed battery packs and the cells are reusable.
Whilst recycling company, Recyclus claims to be able to recycle 8,300 tonnes of spent Lithium-Ion batteries each year this doesn’t help to keep more used electric cars on the road. The government needs to address this problem and work with manufacturers and insurance companies to come up with a solution. There are a few battery repairers but then there are warranty issues once the car has been repaired. The stance taken by manufacturers is that damaged batteries are replaced as a complete pack rather than repaired.
Next is the Agency Model as mentioned earlier. The first major manufacturer to adopt this direct supply model is Mercedes whilst most other manufacturers watch on to see if they get away with it. Reports suggest that Mercedes profits are up as a result of selling most cars at full list price whilst sales to the public are down. There is talk of pre-registration of cars which skews the supply figures as they provide free demonstrators to their dealers. With lower total sales they don’t need to sell so many new electric cars to meet the government’s target in 2024 which will reduce availability for used car buyers. The restricted supply will also lead to higher used car prices as most other manufacturers follow suit.
There is a glimmer of light in the area of business and personal contract hire. Contact hire can attract discounts of up to 50% off list price with 25% – 35% quite normal. This was before the pandemic, but we are already seeing a return to these levels on some cars as supply lines improve.
Something that very few people in the industry know about is the effect of the Supply of New Cars Order 2000 introduced by Labour’s Trade and Industry Secretary at the time Stephen Byers. It was enacted to stop buyers from traveling to France and Belgium to buy cheaper RHD cars than they were paying in the UK. Then quite bizarrely he entered the following clause regarding contract hire, previous to which there were always 2 rates, one for fleet customers and a higher rate for consumers:
5.— (1) It shall be unlawful for a supplier to discriminate in respect of the discount given for the supply of a new car to a contract hire company on the basis of whether the contract hire company supplies that new car to a fleet customer or not.
At the moment, whilst estimates vary, around 18% of new cars are financed using Personal Contract Hire despite the huge benefits in cost compared to other forms of finance. But if the message gets across to consumers, we may see some improvement in electric car registrations increasing the availability of used electric cars from business and consumer users.
Next is information. We need much higher sales standards than those prescribed by the government and audited by the Energy Saving Trust. Used car dealers need knowledge on all of the cars they sell which is virtually impossible given the breadth of cars entering the market. The ability to inform is essential if they are to successfully move buyers from ICE cars to electric. My book, Electric Cars – The Truth Revealed and my Chatbot, embedded on their website will answer most practical questions. If the sales staff in both used car dealerships and main dealerships can’t give high levels of comfort to buyers - sales will struggle.
On the demand side is another issue that might need to be addressed. Say you buy a 5-year-old car but it loses battery capacity soon after. Whilst the battery warranty may be active for 8 years, so the manufacturer should replace the pack, but what will happen if the casing has been damaged. Maybe an insurance claim will succeed but will the claim be subject to ‘betterment’? This would require the customer to contribute towards the replacement as the car will be in a better condition than just before the replacement. This could work out to be very expensive. These potential costly events when publicised will put people off buying used electric cars.
16. What is the value and role of alternative transport models such as car clubs and micro mobility vehicles in the Government achieving the 2030 phase out date, and how should the Government consider their roles and opportunities for use in transport decarbonisation?
Answer: They have a place; certainly, in city and town centres but the numbers are extremely low and since the introduction of Uber the benefits have reduced. Local schemes seem to work but as Covid is still affecting people there is a danger that multi-users will cause a problem if transmission starts to increase.
Scotland’s Plugged-In Communities Grant has had mixed reviews – maybe one to watch for the future but it won’t create large numbers of registrations.
Other types of electrified transport such as electric scooters have not yet proven themselves. Concerns over the speed that they can travel at and charging issues resulting in fires has caused concern amongst some local authorities.
17. Are consumers charged higher rates of insurance for an EV when compared to an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle, and if so, are these higher rates justified? Can the Government do anything to mitigate this?
Answer: This is dealt with in detail in my book, podcast and ChatBot. When electric cars started to grow in popularity only specialist insurers would provide insurance. As the popular insurers joined in, they incorrectly relied upon ‘Big Data’. The data showed that electric cars were safer than ICE cars, so the insurance rates were cheaper than ICE cars. However, major insurer AXA decided not to simply rely on historical data but to carry out their own tests. The result of the tests showed electric cars to be more likely to have an accident than an ICE car. In fact, if the car had exceptional acceleration the likelihood of an accident was twice that of an ICE car. The reason was ‘Overtapping’, something I’ll explain in evidence.
Further investigation revealed that the reason why early electric cars appeared safer was that the drivers were trying to maximise what was a comparatively low range so were driving very cautiously. As time has moved on ranges have increased and drivers are driving less cautiously. Acceleration speeds have increased with some such as the Nissan Leaf taking 10 seconds to get from 0-60 at the time of launch now down to 6.9 seconds. Thus, making the cars more dangerous.
As mentioned above electric cars are being written off with just minor damage if the insurance company suspects that the battery is even slightly damaged. Thus, resulting in all electric car premiums being increased. Whilst the cost of repairs can be cheap the spares are not always available and the cars in the workshop must wait until they are isolated by a special team before work can start. So electric cars can be held in workshops for overly excessive periods of time leaving the insurance company to foot the bill of a hire car.
There are other ways to reduce premiums which I reveal in my book. For example, most people take out their insurance the day before delivery of their new car. I reveal a survey showing that if the car is insured (or quote saved) 21 days before delivery customers can save up to 40% compared to taking out the insurance on the day of collection/delivery. There is a mass of info in my book aimed at saving customers money.
The government could provide everyone with a copy of my book! Or on a serious note, the sales standards introduced by the government and audited by the Energy Saving Trust could be expanded to include much more advice rather than the inadequate advice being passed on currently.
Experience of using an EV
18. What are the main challenges that UK consumers face in their use of EVs?
Answer: As reported back to me by members of the public and customers:
19. What are the main benefits that UK consumers could realise from using an EV?
Answer: Lower running and overall costs. The comfort of understanding that they are helping to reduce emissions. With Bi-Direction greater control over electricity usage. The increased safety as a result of latest safety technology.
20. How prepared are car dealerships, service networks, repairs and maintenance organisations, breakdown services and aftermarket suppliers to meet the growing EV uptake?
Answer: This is a difficult question to answer as far as dealerships are concerned. Not so difficult when it comes to the workshops as ICE car mechanics are being retrained but there looks like a growing electrical engineering gap as dealers struggle to recruit engineers capable of working on EV’s.
There is also the challenge of new entrants into the market. Whilst Over the Air updates will make it possible to carry out part of the service work remotely there will still be a need for a workshop. Maybe the Tesla model of mobile technicians will be followed by more manufacturers, it seems to work perfectly well for them, and it would potentially work better within groups such as VW, Audi, Seat and Skoda as a group and Stelantis Group designing cars using identical parts.
As far as the sale of new and used electric cars are concerned the whole of the industry across most brands is in turmoil and not conducive to high EV take-up. In the case of new cars most manufacturers are waiting to see if Mercedes cam pull off the biggest con in the history of car sales in the UK by forcing buyers to pay list price for the majority of their cars on offer by deceptively telling customers they will no longer have the need to negotiate. This is a con as no-one has ever had the need to negotiate if they were prepared to pay list price. They have made it clear that dealers will make more profit by adopting this new method by receiving a fixed fee per car for demonstrating and handing over. I have seen no evidence that this will improve the quality of demonstrations or handovers.
An ex-dealership sales manager who was made redundant revealed to me that the dealer was releasing all sales staff and replacing them with lower paid junior members of staff who will simply demonstrate and handover cars. This will not assist the sales of new cars as it is my belief that those performing demonstrations and handovers should be doing so at instructor level to ensure that the new EV driver is totally competent to drive and handle the massive differences between ICE and electric.
In my opinion both new and used car dealers are seriously restricting car sales through lack of knowledge and information. Confused customers rarely buy. I have prompt engineered over 200 questions that customers should have answered before they buy their new or used electric car, but they are rarely provided with answers to the questions. Government minimum electric car sales standards are woefully short of the mark, and I would say in breach of Trade Descriptions as the dealers promote themselves as reliable sources of information when selling cars to consumers and competent to provide sufficient information in order to make a buying decision. That is misleading.
21. How does the charging infrastructure for EVs need to develop to meet the 2030 target? Does the UK need to adopt a single charging standard (e.g., the Combined Charging System (CCS)) or is there room in the market for multiple charger types?
Answer: I have made a study of Amaxophobia over the last few years and included a section on the subject in my book. This is driving anxiety and has existed for years amongst drivers of all ages. I spoke about this on Men’s Radio Station recently. The station is dedicated to mental health issues, and I spoke about the fears of charging causing so much concern that it was stopping some drivers from transitioning to electric cars. The condition usually shows itself through fear of motorways, fear of tunnels, roundabouts, driving alone, driving with passengers as well as fear of using a petrol pump different from their regular pump. CCS would certainly help but we also need consistency in the way the electricity is paid for. This is as much of a fear as charging the car. Taking debit or credit cards will help but that payment method loses all of the benefits of being part of the charger network or club. An app that requires you to join every charger group then simply acts as a payment clearing house could be the answer.
22. The Government recently published the draft legislation of “Public Charge Point Regulations 2023”. What assessment have you made of the draft legislation text, and what contribution will it make in ensuring the charging experience is standardized and reliable for consumers?
Answer: I welcome the legislation regarding the 99% reliability rules. Concentrating on expanding the network whilst seemingly ignoring the high failure rate of installed chargers. Drivers were more accepting of all chargers in use when they arrive at a charging station rather than not being able to charge due to broken chargers. Avery positive move.
Many customers have asked why many charging stations have no form of cover to protect drivers from the weather whilst wrestling with connectors and complicated payment systems and apps. Whilst many customers believe that the charge connectors are safe in the wet there are many that are concerned about charging in poor weather conditions with some complaining that psychologically a cover over the car being charged would make drivers feel more relaxed about charging the car. Other comments include placing covers over chargers on which solar panels could be placed to offer up a trickle of car energy. Every little help.
23. What assessment do you make of the requirements set out in the draft legislation of “Public Charge Point Regulations 2023” for charge point operators to make data free and publicly available, and how may this improve the EV charging experience for consumers?
Answer: Making this data publically available is essential and will help when deciding what chargers are needed and where. Drivers need to be aware that if they have a slower charging car but attach the car to a rapid charger the speed of charge will be no faster and in fact will cost more per kWh than on a matching charger. With more publicly available data we may find that slow charge cars are taking up rapid charger charge time which deprives drivers of rapid charge cars access to rapid chargers.
If there are spaces in charge stations a camera could identify the registration number and the charge speed of cars entering, then guide the car to a matching charger. Greater access to data could also lead to more sophisticated apps that will optimise charger use.
24. In terms of charging infrastructure, are there unique barriers facing consumers in areas of low affluence and/or multi-occupancy buildings, such as shared housing or high-rise flats? Do you consider public EV charging points to be accessible and equitable compared to home-charging points? What can be done to improve accessibility and equitability?
Answer: We need to take a less idealistic approach to charging and be more practical. We can’t wave a magic wand and give everyone a dedicated charger overnight. And if we could, in practical terms, not everyone would want an electric car so charging bays would be taken by ICE cars. If more street chargers were installed encouraging more people in properties without the ability to install an off-street charger to transition to electric we would not have the supply of electric cars to meet the demand. Then of course there is affordability and willingness to pay more for an electric car than an ICE car even if the consumers could afford it.
We are also stuck in a time warp. Today’s technology isn’t tomorrow’s technology. It’s the misuse of data that is causing much of the problem. Data collected using today’s technology is already out of date. An Australian company has developed a Graphene-Aluminium Ion battery that can charge at 60 times the speed of current Lithium batteries and provide 3 times the range. Production is expected to start in 2024. Couple this with dropping electricity costs and there will be no need for roadside chargers taking 14 hours to charge a standard car when you can pull into a charge station and charge the same car in less time than to fill an ICE car with petrol. And remember roadside chargers are not free!
I would also add that chargers need to improve, and they are. Ekoenergetyka – Polska is working on new chargers that are capable of delivering 750kW and 1,500kW intended for HGV’s but with the latest battery developments the potential is there.
What to be done? My feeling is minimal. There are 26.4 million dwellings in England and Wales with a widely reported 40% unable to install off road chargers. That means 15.84 million can. The government’s plan is to have 8 million electric cars on the road by 2030 so that is easily achievable out of the 15.84 million homes with charger capability. In addition, Zap-Map have reported that 20% of electric car drivers have no home charging facilities so whilst not perfect and a somewhat unfair situation it’s not surprising that many local authorities are not enthusiastically installing street chargers. After all this is actually unfair on petrol and diesel drivers who are subsidising potentially wealthier drivers through their fuel duty and road fund licence payments.
25. Is there a financial benefit to the consumer of choosing an EV over an ICE vehicle? Are there further benefits, aside from financial, that a consumer may gain from EV use?
Answer: I could now copy and paste the contents of my book: Electric Cars – The Truth Revealed (all 280 pages) in answer to your question. But I won’t. There are inherent dangers such as the acceleration and what has been identified by insurance company AXA known as ‘Overtapping’ and the findings of road safety charity – IAM Roadsmart that reaction times slowed by 21% when driving under the influence of cannabis but they slowed by 57% when driving and using the touchscreen controls fitted in electric cars. So, more needs to be done to change or remove some of these dangers.
End of life disposal of EVs
26. What options are there for consumers for end-of-life management of batteries and EVs, and what impact does this have on consumer attitudes towards buying an EV?
Answer: In my experience of dealing with the public I have never heard a comment about end-of-life disposal of batteries being an issue. End of life means different things. End of a 3-year lease is not end of life so my clients would not see disposal of end-of-life cars and their batteries as any sort of deal breaker. End of the 8-year warranty is not end of life nor is when the battery would normally be replaced when the storage capacity drops to below 70%.
But this is not when the batteries should be broken down to recover the precious metals. The intention was to recycle the batteries as home and work electricity storage units, charged up at cheap rate overnight and used during peak times to keep energy costs down.
However, after questioning the electric car salvage companies we have mixed messages. Some say that they have no means of recycling old batteries or batteries removed from crashed cars into cars for reuse. Whilst I have reported earlier that there are now companies that can take away lithium-Ion batteries and break them down to their constituent parts for recycling. I don’t see that end-of-life disposal of batteries being an attitude changer. There is a general assumption that as with ICE cars they will be disposed of efficiently and in an eco-friendly manner.
27. What are the current regulations and responsibilities of disposal and recycling for EVs, and how effective are they? How much of the battery can be recycled from a technical standpoint, and how much of that is economically feasible?
Answer: I can’t help with this technical question.
28. Is there a risk that the residual value of EVs may be lower than the value of the EV as a source of recoverable critical minerals, and how might this effect the flow of EVs into the second-hand market?
Answer: There is a clear distinction between the buyers of new cars and the used car sector. The positive move to give 8-year warranties on the batteries moves the time when scrap vs used car value sufficiently away to make it of little or no effect on the number of new cars being registered. Anyone on a PCP or PCH agreement is only considering the value in 3 or 4 years which will be comparatively high given the supply vs demand equation as more seek to travel the used electric car route.
By the time we reach 2030 it is expected that the industry would have moved on sufficiently far for battery packs to be ‘refreshed’ without the need to scrap the whole car, just recycling the faulty batteries. We are learning by the week what causes batteries to depreciate and how to maximise their range and capacity. It was once thought that only using rapid chargers would depreciate battery capacity at a massive rate, this is generally not proving to be so. As we collect more data on battery charging the situation will change and improve.
Of course, much depends on getting the balance right, sourcing new material vs recycling existing material. As we know Lithium can be extracted from sea water but at a high cost. As this cost comes down with new techniques, we will have access to 230 billion tonnes of lithium in sea water compared to 21 million tonnes in conventional land based reserves. Governments need to get together to manage the resources.
National and regional issues
29. What are the challenges or concerns around grid capacity in relation to significantly increased EV adoption?
Answer: The press goes berserk every so often as EV drivers sense a sensational story and flood the newsrooms with TicToc videos showing queues of cars stacked waiting to charge. If one checks they are probably taken at between 8.00am and 9.00 am or 5.00pm and 6.00pm, these being peak demand times. As I have already mentioned I have taken two independent surveys and calculated the average utilisation of public chargepoints and each survey points to less than 15% utilisation. So, the problem is location and maybe looking at ways to incentivise drivers to charge their cars outside of peak demand.
In this modern age of apps, I can’t see why an alert couldn’t come up to advise that chargers are free and the rate has dropped to x pence per kWh. Or have certain times during the day when you can book your charging spot. What about following the Americans tradition for drive-in movies and charge your electric car at the same time?
30. What is the role of distribution network operators in ensuring EV infrastructure can be rolled out sufficiently to meet 2030 target?
Answer: I don’t really have a comment other than to say that the government’s aim is to have 300,000 public chargepoints. An investigation was carried out and the resultant finding was that we needed anywhere between 280,000 and 720,000 chargepoints. That range takes us way beyond that of an acceptable margin for error. A wet finger would have been more accurate. Having said that the target is 300,000 to service 8 million electric car drivers by 2030. 8 million represents 28% of the 28.2 million households. Of which about 66% or 18.9 million households could have access to on premises charging.
With this in mind I don’t see that we should be pouring money into street/lamppost charging at ridiculously slow speeds resulting in potential friction (already seen in Scotland) and no real benefits to drivers as they still pay for the electricity. I’m hopeful that by 2030 we will have cars with next (and possibly next next) generation batteries that can hold greater range and charge in seconds. With electricity costs dropping the new electric cars will have no real need for home charging other than as a convenience. Most people will charge their cas as if they were filling up with petrol.
31. What are the requirements, challenges, or opportunities for the development of public charge point delivery across the UK? How will the development of EV charging infrastructure in the UK interact with existing planning regulations?
Answer: In my experience there are two key obstacles. The first is planning permission which is reported to take years in some places as opposed to months in others. But there is also access to the grid and it seems that the easy access places puts charging stations in places that generate local hostility. There needs to be better arbitration and maybe consider locating chargers on business premises that could increase the turnover of the business such as restaurants, antique warehouses, farm shops and garden centres, even churches, church halls and other religious centres.
A government funded upgrade to 3 phase electricity could mean the installation of 22kW chargers or even higher and the local community would be helped.
Another solution could be chargers that are similar to the VW/Shell Elli FlexPole being installed in Germany. They only require a low voltage A/C supply so can be connected directly to the low voltage grid then store as DC capable of charging at 150kW, i.e., 90 miles charge in 10 minutes. I have found no evidence of the UK entering into discussions with VW or Shell regarding these chargers. I’m not technical so this type of charge station may require further investigation.
32. What are the issues facing rural residents, urban residents, and sub-urban residents and how do they differ?
Answer: Rural areas can suffer from sparse charging facilities especially in areas where the houses have no home charging ability. Local businesses such as pubs, restaurants, farm shops, garden centres and even churches and church halls could provide a community service by having chargers installed that could increase footfall at the same time. In towns and cities where power supply is more freely available and planning permission seems to be easier to achieve there doesn’t seem to be any need for government intervention.
Service and maintenance facilities may be rather weak in rural areas, but this is where electric cars have an advantage. Some of the work can be over the air, not requiring the driver to take the car to a repair centre/dealer. More of the manufacturers also provide mobile servicing adding to the ease of ownership of EV’s in the country.
Urban and sub-urban residents may suffer if there is a lack of on street charging, but most urban areas have a high density of public chargers.
33. What role do you see local authorities playing in the delivering the 2030 phase out target, particularly in relation to planning regulations, charge points and working with District Network Operators? How can government best support local authorities in their roles?
Answer: Simple answer – Planning Permission. Delays of up to a year means that the installers are unable to install charging stations where they are needed. There are some electricity supply issues but it seems that this problem is more easily resolved than the planning permission delays. Local authorities can certainly do more to accommodate the needs of the installers. In areas that are particularly short of charging stations installing slow street chargers would certainly help those who would like to transition but have no access to off street charging facility. DNO’s can advise on the best locations regarding power supply but there is an alternative.
Battery storage will have a part to play where there is relatively low usage. The batteries can be charged from a low voltage supply but provide rapid charging up to 150kW such as the VW Shell Flex Pole.
International perspectives
34. What are the successful approaches to the rollout and uptake of EVs in other countries, and what can the UK learn from these cases?
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Answers to this paper provided by Graham Hill
GH has been in the Auto Finance industry for close to 40 years. He has been blogging on electric cars since 2011 and has written a book Electric Cars – The Truth Revealed. The first edition was launched in 2022 with a new updated version brought out in 2023.
He has a new podcast: Electric Car Chat and has created a chatbot answering questions on electric cars using the content of his book, reports, surveys etc to provide highly accurate answers.