Written evidence from David Craik (ELV0066) 

ELECTRIC VEHICLES INQUIRY

Government approaches

1. What are the main obstacles to the achievement of the Government’s 2030 and 2035 phase-out dates? Are the phase-out dates realistic and achievable? If not, what steps should the Government take to make the phase-out dates achievable?

4. Given that the Government should apply a behavioural lens to policy—which involves people making changes to their everyday lives, such as what they purchase and use—is there a role for clearer communication of the case for EVs from the Government? If so, who should take the lead on delivering that?

The case for EVs has not been communicated.

Conversations with two Conservative MPs has revealed that the impact of this government policy was not considered prior to announcement. The policy was announced by Boris Johnson with the intent of showing the UK as a world leader by the time of the 2035 COP Summit in Glasgow, in the unresearched hope that industry and society would follow the policy and make it work. There has been little communication since then and industry and society have not followed the policy.

EV Market and Acquiring an EV

9. What are the main consumer barriers to acquiring an EV, either through purchasing, leasing, or other routes?

Cost of the EV and the shorter useful life (CEBR)

11. Do you think the range of EVs on offer in the UK is sufficient to meet market needs? Which segments are under-served and why? Why is the UK market not seeing low cost EVs, particularly in comparison to China?

The range of EVs are limited to SUVs which appear to be the preferred vehicle type in UK. Low cost EVs are small cars with limited equipment and limited use (less seating and load carrying capacity) and perceived limited protection against the larger SUV type vehicle.

12. What is the future role of L-segment and personal light electric vehicles, and how will that impact car ownership and usage? What is inhibiting their uptake?

The introduction of the use of light electric vehicles based on scooters and bicycles has been largely unregulated with current laws designed to protect the public not being enforced. This has led to poor public perception of use of these vehicles which have quickly been adopted and illegally modified by younger members of society to provide illegally fast and unregulated transport on which they may terrorise pedestrians and cyclists. Operators of these illegal vehicles also know that, should they come into conflict with a perfectly legally operated motor vehicle, the current law will always be on the side of the illegally operated electric vehicle due to the individual’s vulnerability to injury. Evidence of this is the case of the two boys killed whilst riding an illegally operated electric bike in Cardiff on 22 May.

The widespread illegal use of electric bicycles is, by association, inhibiting:

• the uptake of legal use of electric bicycles,
• the uptake of legal use of electric motorcycles.

Use of legally compliant and legally operated L-segment vehicles should be encouraged.

13. What is your assessment of the current second-hand EV market? How is the second-hand EV market projected to develop between now and the phase out dates?

The public is becoming increasingly aware of the short life of on EV vehicle. The battery life and the huge cost of, or in the case of many vehicles, the impossibility of, renewing a reduced capacity battery means that second hand EVs are now being seen as a risky purchase and this will slow the second-hand market, and therefore also the new car market, down. The CEBR report gives an EV life, based around effective battery life, of 8.1 years against a life for an IC powered car of 13.9 years.

This will have a severe adverse impact on households with low and mean wealth. An ICEV at 8 years old is a good purchase for a household of low or mean personal wealth at 20% of new cost and will last for another 5 years, whereas a BEV will be at end of life. In order to purchase a BEV, you could consider one at 4 years old at 40% of new cost and it would have 4 years life left. In being forced to buy a newer car with less residual life, this is a considerable increase in cost to those households and leads to the conclusion that only those households wily the highest wealth will be able to readily own and drive BEVs. Government should consider how the Cleaner, the Bus Driver the Care Assistant, the Nurse, and other members of the electorate on low/mean wages will be able to travel for work and leisure purposes once BEVs are forced onto the electorate.

15. What barriers are there to achieving a sufficient supply of second-hand EVs, mindful that second-hand vehicles make up a high proportion of all vehicles purchased?

The barriers will be the lack of vehicles with sufficient battery life.

18. What are the main challenges that UK consumers face in their use of EVs?

Access to charging points – NC500. Suitability of vehicles for family use – towing of caravans, European travel etc

20. How prepared are car dealerships, service networks, repairs and maintenance organisations, breakdown services and aftermarket suppliers to meet the growing EV uptake?

Main dealers are getting there, small garages are not and will struggle to receive training. Even fir main dealers though, this is new technology, and my personal experience is that they need increased manufacturer support to solve any problems.

National and regional issues

29. What are the challenges or concerns around grid capacity in relation to significantly increased EV adoption?

In anticipation that the Government will increase it’s funding to support the capital cost of charging points, it will also need to ensure that there is sufficient power in the UK to feed those charging points. Analysis by Atkins, published in the journal ‘Infrastructure Intelligence’ in June 2022, advised that ‘’Atkins is warning that the pace of new electricity generation build, and the complexity of the challenge means a dash to decarbonise power by 2035 may no longer be a credible ambition for the UK’’. The analysis showed that:

• for the Government to reach the Net Zero Strategy goals set out in 2021 the UK will need to more than double it’s 108GW of total installed capacity to meet the projected demand of 218GW to 262GW in 2035,
• 49GW of existing capacity will go offline by 2035, being a mixture of older nuclear power plants, fossil fuel power plants and older renewables,
• 14GW of new build capacity must be added each year to 2035 to ensure demand can be met,
• BUT, since 2010 the Government has only achieved an average new build capacity each year of 4GW.

Therefore, an additional 10GW of new build capacity has to be provided each year until 2035. While the Government has yet to release a target energy mix for 2035, with nuclear capital cost being £10bn per GW and windfarm capital cost being £2bn per GW, we can safely assume a capital cost of £4bn per GW, requiring an additional capital spend of £40bn each year, this being over and above existing capital commitments to electricity supply.

Of course, involvement of the private sector with an interest in supplying the electricity could be used to cut Government capital costs, but there is still an additional £40bn to be spent each year to 2035, contributed to by the Government fixation on BEVs, and that spend will ultimately have to be raised from the end user, your electorate.

31. What are the requirements, challenges, or opportunities for the development of public charge point delivery across the UK? How will the development of EV charging infrastructure in the UK interact with existing planning regulations?

Using data from the ZapMap electric vehicle charging platform as used by the Secretary of State, there are currently only 42,000 charge points across the UK, and The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) advises 2.3 million charging points will be needed in the UK by 2030 to keep up with predicted demand. At an average capital cost of £2,000 per unit up to 2030, that would require an initial investment across the UK of £4.6bn to 2030.

In the case of the town in which I live, Southport, using SMMT numbers as a base, with a UK population of 67million and a Liverpool City Region (LCR) population of 1.5 million, then LCR will require 52,000 chargers by 2030 at a capital cost of £104million. The funding provided by Government to LCR of £9.65m is therefore inadequate and the provision of charging points in Southport will be chronically underfunded. Of course, involvement of the private sector with an interest in supplying the electricity could be used to cut Government capital costs, but there is still £104 million to be spent across LCR due to the Government fixation on BEVs, and that will ultimately come from the end user, your electorate.

With reference to the Northwest, it is worrying to note that our region currently has the fewest number of public charging points per car in the UK, at 85 cars per charger. I note that the Secretary of State knows this and advises that there are only 12 public charging points in Southport and yet he is only prepared to provide a fraction of the funding required to address this matter.