Professor Mike Bentley, Professor Chris Stokes, Professor Stewart Jamieson, Dr Thomas Chudley, and Dr David Small (Durham University)                            ANT0012

Written evidence submitted by Professor Mike Bentley, Professor Chris Stokes, Professor Stewart Jamieson, Dr Thomas Chudley, and Dr David Small (Durham University)

EAC Antarctic enquiry call for evidence: Durham Geography

The Department of Geography at Durham University hosts the largest single grouping of Antarctic scientists in the UK outside of British Antarctic Survey (our informal Antarctic research group totals around 35-40 people, including permanent staff, postdoctoral and doctoral researchers). The department has led initiatives to: (i) measure and understand past Antarctic glacial and environmental change, including impacts on sea level and changes in the Southern Ocean, (ii) enhanced understanding of processes using numerical models, and (iii) recently delivered circum-Antarctic observations of cryospheric change. Much of this work is conducted in collaboration with staff at the British Antarctic Survey and the wider international community, often within the framework of the Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research (SCAR). Indeed, Durham researchers take an active leadership role in the scientific action groups of SCAR, as well as high-level engagement with policy via the International Climate Cryosphere Initiative and contributions to the UNFCCC (e.g. at COP).

 The Antarctic Environment

What are the most significant climate and environmental changes taking place in the Antarctic? What might they mean for the UK, for example in terms of sea level rise and our weather? How well prepared is the UK Government for these impacts?

1. Climate change is the most significant environmental change in Antarctica. Whilst caused by human activity outside Antarctica it is having very substantial impacts on Antarctica including ice sheet mass loss (ice gets thinner and less extensive, driven by a warming atmosphere and a warming ocean), changes in biogeochemical cycles, and ecosystem change. Recent alarming reductions in Antarctic sea ice have happened since 2016. This is much more recent than several decades of sea ice reduction in the Arctic but has been exceptionally abrupt. The first 3 years of Antarctic sea ice loss were equivalent to 30 years of change in the Arctic.
2. These changes in the Antarctic affect the UK in direct and indirect ways. Ongoing sea level rise caused by the shrinkage of Antarctic ice will affect the UK coastline. Due to some gravitational effects of ice and water being redistributed, a given volume of ice loss from Antarctica will cause a greater sea level rise in the UK than the same volume of ice melting in Greenland. The amount of sea level rise in the UK and globally is dependent on choices that the international community make now and in the coming years. Published ranges from the IPCC for future global average sea level rise also include some scenarios that may lead to substantially greater sea level rise due to processes in which the IPCC does not yet find full agreement. Recent research published since the last IPCC report, including from Durham researchers, indicate that the temperature thresholds required to destabilise both the West Antarctic and East Antarctic Ice Sheet may be lower than previously thought; even 2°C may be too high if we want to avoid crossing a tipping point and the safe limit may lie at or below 1.5°C. Resolving these uncertainties is an urgent international research priority as, after 2050, uncertainties in Antarctic ice loss are responsible for the large spread in projected sea level rise. These improvements are needed so that UK Shoreline Management Plans can be updated to account for the greater certainty on projections.
3. A growing concern in Antarctica is the prevalence of Antarctic extremes which were recently reviewed by Antarctic scientists in an FCDO-commissioned scientific publication[1]. Recent years have seen extreme or unprecedented events in the Antarctic such as several years of sustained sea ice minima, a record-breaking heatwave, unprecedented surface melting of the ice sheet, ice shelf collapse, and marine heat waves. The Southern Ocean ecosystem is also still recovering from extreme anthropogenic impacts such as the whaling of the early-to mid 20th Century, and the geological record shows that abrupt thinning of the ice sheet is possible. Some of these extremes may even act in cascades where for example a heatwave can cause ice surface melting and then ice shelf collapse, which accelerates the flow of ice from inland and increases sea level rise. Unless drastic action is successfully taken on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by mid-Century, it is virtually certain that future Antarctic extreme events will be more pronounced than those observed to date.
4. The Southern Ocean hosts an exclusive and diverse biological assemblage which is globally important and an important economic resource. Ecosystem changes such as on penguins, marine mammals and fish will have substantial impacts on the Southern Ocean, which is also an increasingly important global fishery. Some of these fishery resources are economically important assets within the waters of UK Overseas Territories.
5. Biogeochemical processes in the Southern Ocean are globally important and changes in such ecosystem services here will impact the UK and other countries. We know processes of release and uptake of carbon and other globally important nutrients are changing but are not well understood despite their importance in biogeochemical cycles. In particular, global heating will be even greater if the Southern Ocean warms and becomes less effective as a carbon sink. Ocean acidification will also negatively impact the Southern Ocean and its biology.
6. Other ongoing impacts are pollutants, including plastics; the establishment of alien species in both marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

UK Science in Antarctica

How well placed is the UK to deliver the scientific priorities identified by national and international research communities?

7. A recent (2021) UK Antarctic science community publication on the priorities for UK Antarctic Science[2] identifies 5 themes that are important and which the UK is particularly well-placed to address. These are consistent with priorities identified internationally by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) but are particularly focussed on those areas of UK scientific strength and potential impacts on the UK. The first four are (1) sea level; (2) carbon, heat and climate; (3) ecosystems and biodiversity; and (4) the Antarctic as a vantage point. The latter includes the potential to observe and predict space weather, and using Antarctica for monitoring and managing an increasingly congested global constellation of satellites. (5) A fifth theme of using science for environmental management and the governance of Antarctica is increasingly important. The UK is a leader in using the ‘best available science’ to inform decision-making on environmental protection and the scientific community are mindful that the conservation challenges facing the Antarctic will require intense political bargaining and diplomatic exchange. This dependence on robust science is reflected in the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) British Antarctic Territory Strategy (2021)[3].
8. The UK makes an outsized contribution to international community efforts to observe Antarctic Ice Sheet change and to project sea level rise contributions, leading and co-leading international intercomparison exercises directly feeding into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports. In contrast to climate projections led by large national organisations (e.g. the UK Meteorological Office), the UK’s contribution to ice sheet projections are enacted, often on a volunteer basis, by a few tens of researchers. This makes the UK’s position vulnerable to staff turnover, particularly in early-career doctoral and postdoctoral scientists, who often leave for other countries or industry upon the end of their temporary contracts.

How well does the UK support research in and about the Antarctic, and what can the UK do to position itself at the forefront of Antarctic science? What role does international collaboration play in understanding the global implications of climate change in Antarctica? How can the UK ensure that opportunities for international collaboration are maximised, and are there key partners with whom the UK should seek to work?

9. Due to its long and impressive record of Antarctic research and its scientific, engineering and logistical capabilities in the region, the United Kingdom (UK) is strategically well-positioned to lead or play a key role in the delivery of these research priorities.
10. UK scientific strength in Antarctica is sometimes thought of through the lens of stations, ships and aircraft. The extent and quality of UK infrastructure ranks amongst the top handful of nations active in Antarctic research. This physical infrastructure is vital to continued high quality scientific research but an area where the UK particularly stands out historically is in the strength and depth of the polar scientific community: in BAS, in UK universities, and in other research institutes. This standing is enhanced by recent investments in cutting-edge infrastructure, including a new state-of-the-art research vessel (the RRS Sir David Attenborough), modernised research station facilities, autonomous systems, sub-glacial access technologies, and advanced modelling capabilities, which collectively provide a superb capability for UK polar research. The UK is ideally placed to push further, to deliver scientific priorities identified by the national and international communities. Crucially, the British Antarctic Territory, where the UK mostly operates, is a region key to understanding Antarctic processes and links to the Earth system since it is where the greatest heating and changes in the Antarctic ecosystem have been observed.
11. International collaboration has been, and will continue to be, key in delivering scientific understanding and management of Antarctica. UK Antarctic science has an excellent track record, but the best and most impactful science is most often delivered in cooperation with key international partners and programmes. Bringing different expertise both from within the UK and internationally enables outstanding research that would otherwise not be possible. Additionally, addressing the science challenges outlined above will increasingly require more scientists from multiple disciplines working together.
12. Partnership and collaboration also bring value-added two-way benefits in terms of cost-sharing of expensive logistics and infrastructure, enabling access to technology, facilitating information-sharing and science diplomacy, and expediting access of UK researchers to regions not in the UK’s traditional logistics footprint (e.g. parts of East Antarctica where UK scientists have undoubted expertise but where access can be more challenging), as well as minimising greenhouse gas emissions and environmental impact.
13. The priorities noted under five key themes are suitable targets for funding of UK or international research programmes in the coming years and, indeed, several will rely on significant new investment in long-term and repeated measurements. Much of this work will be necessary to fulfil UK commitments to wider global initiatives such as the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the UN Decade of Ocean Science and the UN Sustainable Development Goals, as well as informing the UK’s ongoing influence at the Antarctic Treaty.
14. The UK Funding Councils, especially NERC, have made significant advances in enabling simplified bilateral funding schemes but a particular need in Antarctic research is for multilateral schemes that will enable the sorts of co-operation necessary in Antarctica to address some of the biggest challenges. 

What impact has the UK’s investment in science infrastructure, through the RRS Sir David Attenborough and modernised station facilities, had on UK science in the Antarctic? How can the UK ensure that use of the UK’s infrastructure in the Antarctic is maximised, while minimising the environmental impacts of research activities?

15. The investment in science infrastructure in Antarctica has created a step-change in capability. The Sir David Attenborough (SDA) is a superbly-capable ship, with icebreaking ability, and a wide range of instrumentation, some of it not previously available to UK researchers, and certainly not on one single platform. This investment has kept us on a par with other peer nations, many of whom have invested substantially in similar capabilities in the last few years.
16. The move to a single-ship operation has not been without challenges, however, particularly for capacity. In the move from the two-ship operation (i.e. RRS Shackleton, used mostly for logistics and for some science; and RRS James Clark Ross, used mostly for science and some logistics) the amount of science days possible on the SDA are inevitably likely to reduce. The SDA is necessarily being used for logistics tasks such as supplying stations with food, fuel and other supplies. Given the urgency of many science questions and the backlog of funded projects (partly due to COVID, partly due to the gap between disposal of previous ships and SDA being commissioned, partly due to pressure of several high quality proposals being funded, and partly reduced capacity/science days that can be programmed) it is imperative that we find even more effective ways of using SDA to maximise science output, and to avoid its role being salami-sliced into a range of tasks. Enhancing its use could include periodic charter of other vessels – possibly shared with other nations - to cover more routine tasks not best suited to an expensive highly-capable scientific ice breaker. Whilst likely requiring additional logistic funding to BAS this will be a relatively low cost option that will leverage huge benefits in UK Antarctic science delivery. We have a queue of funded projects awaiting ship-time, some of them waiting years, and there is a risk that this may have an impact on our ability to train the next generation of Antarctic scientists to address science priorities.
17. The UK Antarctic science community is mindful of the need to reach net zero, and is making increasing use of autonomous instrumentation (e.g. on ocean moorings, ocean gliders, instrumented marine mammals, drones and so on), NERC-BAS are working on reducing emissions from their fleet, and the community is ensuring that data are readily available to a wide community, consistent with Open Data principles and thus maximising use and avoiding need for duplicate collection by other scientists/nations.

What impact did the UK’s science Strategy UK science in Antarctica: 2014-2020 have and is a further strategy needed, especially in light of the UK’s recent capital expenditure on science infrastructure in Antarctica?

18. The recent Antarctic science priorities document (2021)1 from the UK Antarctic science community and the new BAS Science Strategy (2023)[4] were both developed closely mindful of the infrastructure investments and show what the priorities for using this infrastructure, for inetrational collaboration, and for training the next generations of Antarctic scientists should be. These priorities are also cognisant of wider considerations such as the role of the Antarctic in the 2021 Integrated Review of Defence and Security[5].

Professor Mike Bentley 

Professor Chris Stokes

Professor Stewart Jamieson

Dr Thomas Chudley

Dr David Small

September 2023