Mr Daniel Colson, Ms Connie Harpur, Mr Jamie Izzard, Ms Nicky Kerr, Dr Emma Smith, Mr Christopher Stringer, and Dr Liam Taylor (University of Leeds)

University of Leeds ‘Ice Club’ Submission to Environmental Audit Sub-Committee on Polar Research call for evidence

 

About us

‘Ice Club’ is a post-graduate researcher (PGR) led group comprised of predominantly Early Career Researchers (ECRs) who work in the School of Geography at the University of Leeds. Its members conduct research across a broad range of scientific disciplines that investigate the response of the cryosphere to climate change, with several specifically focussing on Antarctica. We author this submission as a group who will be, for the rest of our careers, devoted to understanding how our cold regions, such as Antarctica, are changing, and identifying solutions to protect them.

 

This submission has been authored by:

Ms Nicky R Kerr, MSc - PhD student in Polar and Alpine Ecology, and Ice Club Chair

Mr Christopher D Stringer, MESci - PhD student in Antarctic Science*

Mr Daniel W Colson, MSc, AFRGS - PhD student in Earth Observation

Ms Connie Harpur, MRes - PhD student in Polar Science

Mr Jamie Izzard, MSc - PhD student in Glaciology and Remote Sensing

Dr Emma C. Smith, MEng, MSc, PhD - Research Fellow in Antarctic Seismology

Dr Liam Taylor, MSc, PhD - Lecturer in Glaciology and Remote Sensing

 

* designated contact

 


Executive summary

Scientific background

Ice mass loss from Antarctica has increased at a rapid rate in the latter parts of the 20th Century[1], and several ice shelves have collapsed[2], coincident with air temperatures warming amongst the most rapidly of any place on Earth; by as much as 3.7°C in the Antarctic Peninsula[3]. Whilst temperatures stabilised in the early parts of the 21st century, rising temperatures once again prevail over the Antarctic Peninsula, subsequently leading to the retreat of glaciers in this region[4],[5]. Furthermore, recent extreme warming across the Antarctic Peninsula has led to exceptional melt rates in some places[6], most notably on the George VI and Larsen C ice shelves[7],[8]. Exceptional melt events release large volumes of freshwater, as well as sediments and nutrients, into streams, lakes, and the Southern Ocean. Meltwater affects water temperature and water chemistry and thus, the fragile ecosystems of Antarctic waters[9]. Additionally, meltwater contributes to global sea level rise and a potential impact on the ocean circulation[10]. Island nations and coastal communities (and their economies), including in the UK, are most vulnerable to these changes, and extreme melt events in Antarctica are likely to worsen in the coming years6. In 2020 and 2022 respectively, extreme heat waves were recorded over the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctica and anomalously warm ocean waters have been observed adjacent to ice shelves which fringe both the West and East Antarctic ice sheets[11],[12]. By impacting biodiversity, ocean circulation and the rate of ice sheet melting, this warming has profound implications for the Antarctic environment and its role in the global climate system.


1. State of research in Antarctica

1.1. The UK’s contribution to Antarctic research

The UK is a leader in research outputs for Antarctica. According to data that we have accessed from Scopus[13], the UK is the second largest contributor (8 % of all research papers) to scientific literature relating to Antarctica and the Southern Ocean of all time (Figure 1A). The UK has maintained its position as a leader in Antarctic research in research years, despite the growth of other Antarctic programmes, and still produces 7 % of research papers (measured since 2020) relating to Antarctica and the Southern Ocean (Figure 1B).

1.2. Climate change and the cryosphere

The Antarctic Ice Sheet contains enough ice to raise global mean sea level by approximately 58 m, if melted entirely[14]. Over recent decades, atmospheric and ocean warming has caused the collapse of several major ice shelves as well as the acceleration, thinning and retreat of outlet glaciers and ice streams, which drain the ice sheet interior. As a result, ice mass losses (i.e. melt and iceberg calving) from Antarctica have increased by 65 % during the past thirty years, contributing 7.2 mm to global sea level rise over the same period[15]. The rate of ice loss is expected to increase through the coming years and currently tracks ‘worst-case’ projections described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)[16].

Sea level rise associated with ice mass loss from Antarctica increases the risk of frequent and severe flooding in the UK’s coastal regions, impacting coastal populations and infrastructure[17]. Antarctic sea level contributions could surpass one metre by 2100 under the current rate of emissions[18]; however, Antarctic ice mass loss remains a primary source of uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise[19]. Continued efforts to understand the stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and its vulnerability to climate change are therefore crucial to making accurate assessments of potential risk. It should be noted that because of the effects of melting ice on the Earth’s gravitational field, sea level rise is not equally distributed and values such as “7.2 mm of global sea level rise” represent averages. Places further afield from melt, such as the UK, will experience greater than the average sea level rises due to melt from Antarctica[20].

Sea ice extent around Antarctica has continually decreased since 2016. This reached a record low in July of 2023 which was 6 standard deviations below the average[21] (see Figure 2), approximately equivalent to a 1 in 7.5 million year probability. It is suggested that this trend may represent a shift in Antarctic sea ice regime, involving greater variability in sea ice extent from year to year and a higher frequency of extreme lows[22]. Reductions in sea ice concentration affects biodiversity[23] and ocean circulation and can exacerbate ice loss from the ice sheet margins[24]. Whilst white sea ice reflects radiation from the sun, the dark ocean surface absorbs solar heat. Persistent sea ice loss in Antarctica may therefore further enhance warming, as observed in the Arctic.

1.3. Biodiversity and microplastics

Antarctic ecosystems are facing rapid and complex environmental changes induced by climate change, pollution and anthropogenic disturbance[25]. Antarctic sea ice supports one of the most productive ecosystems on Earth, the Southern Ocean, and a multitude of species are reliant on both the habitat sea ice provides and its regular seasonal patterns[26], [27]. Changes to sea ice can, therefore, have cascading effects across marine ecosystems, such as changing the timing of phytoplankton blooms, shifting the structure of populations and distribution of species, which may alter the feeding behaviour of some species, or cause changes to food webs, as well as affecting the breeding habitat of ice-reliant fauna[28]. These ecosystem level changes could have consequences for management of fisheries in British Antarctic Territory waters. As has been recently highlighted in the media, very low sea ice extent in 2022 resulted in the total breeding failure of four out of five emperor penguin colonies in the Bellingshausen Sea region[29]. It is estimated approximately 7000 emperor penguin chicks either drowned or froze to death as the sea ice broke apart before they grew their waterproof feathers. This was the first recorded event of catastrophic breeding failure in an entire region that is plainly related to declining sea-ice extent22. Population modelling shows over 90 % of emperor penguin colonies will likely be extinct by 2100[30]. Whilst this is an example of just one species that relies on sea ice, it highlights the extreme and rapid challenges faced by sea ice ecosystems.

Expansion of proglacial areas in terrestrial ecosystems will occur as ice on land shrinks and regional climate changes, such as increased air temperature and precipitation, will alter terrestrial and freshwater habitat conditions[31]. This can facilitate both range expansions by local biota[32] and increased invasion risk by non-native species[33]. At King George Island, the previously absent annual meadow grass (Poa annua) colonised moraines of the retreating Ecology Glacier in the 2000s and has since required careful eradication[34]. Establishment of invasive species can displace highly specialised indigenous biota, increasing competition, altering food web linkages and potentially threatening indigenous species’ survival. Human activity has been the primary source of past non-native biotic transfer, and extensive biosecurity measures must be upheld to mitigate against future invasions.

Despite being the most remote continent on Earth, Antarctica is still subjected to plastic pollution (Figure 3). Most of these plastics are being transported into the region by ocean currents, but local sources include fishing activities, research, and tourism in the region. Local sources from research may be reduced by the better disposal and removal of waste from Antarctica, however this can prove to be a logistical challenge, particularly for smaller research operations. As a leader in the region, the UK would be well placed to supply logistical support for the removal of waste, perhaps in exchange for increased collaboration that may allow UK scientists access to other stations in Antarctica. This would be a great service to the world, which would help maintain Antarctica as a “natural reserve” under the Madrid Protocol of the Antarctic Treaty[35] and bolster the UK’s image as a leader in, and protector of, Antarctica. Tourist-sourced waste should also be managed by the careful control of where and what tourists can access. Generally, tourists should be kept to small groups on designated paths in a limited selection of places[36], avoiding vegetation and animals (particularly those breeding) to ensure harm to the fragile Antarctic ecosystem is minimal and incidental litter can be easily removed, and the introduction of invasive species is limited[37]. Whilst on fieldwork, Christopher Stringer (co-author of this report) witnessed several instances of plastic washing into Nelson Island in the South Shetland Islands (Figure 3) and James Ross Island. In both instances, the pollution was largely from shipping and fishing (e.g., netting, buoys, etc.), though plastic bottles were also visible in some places. Marine animals such as seals and penguins can becoming entangled in plastic waste, often resulting in drowning, or mistake it for food and ingest it[38], potentially causing digestive blockages and death. These plastics breakdown into microplastics and it is estimated that there are 100,000 pieces of microplastics per square km[39] in Antarctic waters. The impacts of microplastics are not well known, however they have been found across Antarctic food webs in invertebrates[40], fish[41], birds[42],[43] and marine mammals[44]. Bioaccumulation of microplastics (i.e. microplastics in higher order fauna) is also of concern, with contaminants transported through Antarctic food webs, however this is yet to be documented in Antarctica[45].

 

2. UK funding for Antarctic research

2.1. International collaboration

Antarctica is a key place for international collaboration. As the UK government seeks to take advantage of new international collaborations, we should take advantage of as many international opportunities as possible. The Antarctic Treaty, adopted in 1959 and to which the UK is proudly one of the original twelve signatories, states that “international scientific exchange and collaboration shall be promoted”34. This has only grown in importance in the subsequent decades. Across all fields, science and innovation benefit from international collaboration in data collection, infrastructure, and logistics[46]. However, collaborations must also consider the wider geopolitical environment and Antarctica is not immune from the Russian invasion of Ukraine[47].

The UK and UK-based researchers would benefit from collaborations with other Antarctic Programmes. European national programmes (Czechia, Poland, Bulgaria, Belgium, Spain etc.) are active within British Antarctic Territory, and whilst collaborations with British researchers occur (e.g.,[48]), greater cooperation with these programmes would provide greater opportunities for British scientists to study other parts of Antarctica. Much of the world-leading research conducted by the UK is as part of international collaborations. However much of this research disproportionately focuses on a small number of large glaciers (e.g., Thwaites Glacier[49]). There would be scientific benefit to ensuring that future funding is available to investigate smaller, understudied, glaciers in the Polar Regions, which have important impacts on the delivery of freshwater to the oceans, affecting sea level rise and ocean circulation, as well as biodiversity9,10. Additionally, proglacial regions are also important for their contributions to biodiversity via the delivery of sediments and nutrients, yet are understudied in Antarctica[50],[51]. Proglacial regions are also home to several lakes, many of which border glaciers and their control on glacial melt is poorly understood in Antarctica[52].

Two of the most significant Antarctic funding opportunities of recent years are the Copernicus/Horizon streams. UK researchers have faced three-year delays under protracted negotiations[53]. Whilst UK institutions could apply for Horizon Europe funding under Associate Country status, the implications of not having full membership during this period should be considered. UKRI support in the meantime has been welcome[54] and the recent announcement that the UK is to re-join will enable close collaboration between UK and EU scientists. Whilst decisions and negotiations have concluded on current membership status, exclusion of UK researchers from Copernicus projects has already occurred, such as the exclusion of the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) from the validation of the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-3 mission[55]. This was a project initially led by CPOM, but since the UK’s departure from the EU has been retracted.

2.2. Satellites and future Earth Observation

Modern Antarctic science has greatly benefitted from the growth of the Earth Observation (EO) sector over the last three decades. Whilst EO satellites are typically global missions capturing imagery of every corner of the planet, they are essential for studying the harsh and remote continent that is Antarctica. Amongst many applications in Antarctic science, data from Earth observation satellites have been used to:

  1. Measure the speed of ice flowing from the ice sheet interior towards the ocean, where it contributes to global sea level[56]
  2. Monitor and track the calving and drift of large icebergs which may pose a threat to ships[57]
  3. Map seasonal sea ice extent, which has experienced a dramatic decline in extent since 2016[58] and record low in 2023[59] is raising concerns about wildlife and the amount of heat energy absorbed by the ocean.

The UK currently stands at the forefront of the EO industry, with internationally renowned expertise throughout UK Universities, research institutes, and the private sector. However, this leading role is fragile and highly dependent on international partnerships to ensure that UK researchers continue to have access and governance over the data which these satellites collect. For Antarctic research, the importance of the UK's continued participation in the EU's Copernicus programme (currently signed until 2027 as a third country) cannot be overstated. Satellites from Copernicus form the bedrock of global EO research, and free, open and easy access to its imagery is essential for performing cutting-edge research and for training the next generation of experts41-44. 

In recent years, the falling cost of satellite launches has led to the emergence of privately held commercial satellite companies which operate fleets of small satellites which capture imagery that is sold to users. At present, companies based in the United States, which often enjoy significant backing from the federal government, dominate the industry (e.g Planet, Capella, Maxar) although European competition is emerging (ICEYE in Finland). Whilst the cost of this imagery is falling, it remains out of reach for ECRs who often lack the funding to purchase such imagery. It is imperative for the UK to remain vigilant and proactive to ensure that it does not lag in this domain. ECRs, who typically have small research budgets, would benefit from additional funding that would allow them to access these data. This would also ensure that there are well trained researchers that can help meet the government’s aim to become a “science and technology superpower”[60].

In addition to Earth Observation, satellites also play a pivotal role in ensuring the safety, security, and productivity of scientists at remote outposts in Antarctica. Polar telecommunication remains a challenge, and are limited to the patchy coverage provided by private companies (e.g., Iridium, Starlink) and there is a need for high-capacity data uplinks that allow real-time access to satellite images, weather forecasts, as well as for allowing remote access to instruments. These have the benefits of: a) improving safety: access to satellite images can, for example, allow ships to avoid areas of dangerous sea ice; b) allowing more work to be done in a single trip, by allowing researchers to assess conditions in areas they want to visit: thus lowering the total environmental and carbon cost of their work.

2.3. The scientists of the future: funding and support for ECRs

UKRI funding currently supports around 30 PhD projects per year focussed on Antarctic science, with BAS directly funding a further ~40. However, around 70 % of these PhD students go on to leave academia, and thus some of the most prosperous ways to contribute to the UK's work in Antarctica, within three years of graduating[61], often citing the challenging landscape of conducting research in the UK (including work-life balance and lack of available opportunities). UKRI have recently published their ‘New deal for postgraduate research’[62], which includes a 20 % increase in the minimum stipend for PhD students and consistency between research councils on terms and conditions of these awards. While this is a welcome increase, this still creates an effective hourly rate for PhD students of £10.23 - below the national minimum wage of £10.42. Masters degrees are increasingly common pre-requisites to PhD study in the UK, but with the government Master’s loan of £12,167 only able to cover tuition fees (typical fees are ~£12,250 for UK students), this still leaves significant cash shortfall in living costs for students wishing to pursue postgraduate study. For Antarctic research, this creates a striking lack of diversity (Figure 4). Where research groups best represent the make-up of society, this leads to more creativity in finding solutions, greater innovation, and originality in research[63].

In order to position the UK at the forefront of Antarctic research, we need to strengthen our investment in the next generation of ECRs who will be leading the research programmes of the 2030s and 2040s. Additionally, there needs to be a focus on ensuring that ECRs are given the necessary training to ensure that facilities that have been well supported by the UK Government, such as Rothera and RRS Sir David Attenborough can be used to their full potential in coming years. This training could be brought through the existing doctoral training partnerships (DTPs), or through new structures that seek to bring together Antarctic-focussed PhD students across all DTPs. This would have the added benefits of providing greater opportunities for collaboration and reduces the risk of duplicated work, thereby ensuring the most efficient use of UKRI funds. This includes ensuring that salaries for postdoctoral researchers (in addition to PhD and Masters students) are competitive and comparable to those salaries available for talented data scientists in the private sector. Additionally, it is essential for ECRs, as well as young technicians and support staff, to have opportunities to work in Antarctica to gain the field skills necessary to work on expeditions that the UK Government is investing in.

Concluding remarks

The UK is a leader in Antarctic research and investment by the UK Government has created strong research programmes which have helped to answer some of the biggest questions in polar science. As a result, the UK enjoys the unique position of having the tools, respect, and leverage to ensure future success in Antarctic research if we work closely with international partners. Priority areas that are overlooked at present include the role of changing proglacial areas on the Southern Ocean, the contribution of small glaciers to overall ice melt, and creating comprehensive plastic clean-up solutions. Each of these capitalise on the investments that the UK has made in its state-of-the-art facilities in the region. Targeting investment towards ECRs through raising stipends to be above minimum wage, allowing post-doc salaries to compete with the private sector, and providing more fieldwork experience for students, will ensure that the UK remains a leader in Antarctic science over the next decades which will see the continent undergo unprecedented change.

 

September 2023

 

 

 

 

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