Written evidence submitted by Deep Learning Partnership (QUA0022)
A Cold Hard Look at the Quantum Computing Industry
This document contains our views on the hype surrounding quantum computing, versus the reality as we see it. We hold no long or short positions in any publicly listed quantum computing companies, nor investments in any quantum technology startups. Along with our opinion, we provide a very comprehensive list of references at the end of the document to support our claims. We urge the reader to read all of these very carefully, to get an objective picture of what is actually going on in the industry. Although we realize this may take a while, it will strip every last ounce of hype away (surely a good thing) and leave the reader with just the cold, hard, objective reality.
Looking back over the historical development of the field of quantum computing and quantum information through the lens of academic papers (not popular articles or press releases), progress has been steady, both experimental and theoretical. But this progress has always come with caveats given within the papers written by reputable scientists within the field. The trouble is, in the last six or so years, hype, in the form of articles written by people who know little about the theoretical underpinnings of the field (quantum physics, quantum information theory, quantum complexity theory, and quantum computation), has overtaken and drowned out the scientific literature. Even bogus conferences have appeared.
So it really is the blind (journalists, investors, bloggers) leading the blind (the general public, VC’s, business and political decision makers). Unscrupulous, dishonest, or simply misguided people who want to make a quick buck from quantum computing want to believe and, more importantly, they want you to believe. What we have is a classic market bubble appealing to subjective feelings and conceptual wonder, completely detached from any objective reality (i.e., facts) and the underlying fundamental science and engineering required to build a quantum computer that can return commercial value. Building a quantum computer is hard – see Figure 1. Fortunately, the markets seem to have caught on to the fact that quantum computing claims are mostly bogus with Rigetti (RGTI) and DWave (QBTS) both having lost around 95% of their market cap since going public via SPACs a year or so ago.
Figure 1 – Hard engineering problems yet to be overcome
Despite over 40 years of effort no team has yet come close to building a quantum computer that is actually capable of solving practical, commercially viable problems. The current devices are so error-prone that any information one tries to process with them will almost instantly decohere into noise. The problem of decoherence only grows worse if the computer is scaled up (the number of “qubits” increased).
The main reason for this quantum hype bubble is that investors were too keen to jump on yet another new technology that was going to “save the world” (literally according to many overblown claims). This is not a new phenomenon by any means (see Figure 2), and is well described by the Gartner hype cycle – see Figure 3.
Figure 2 – Beware the Bubble
Figure 3 – Gartner Hype Cycle
Another reason for this quantum investment bubble, is that financial investment into quantum computing (and other tech) was magnified during Covid when borrowing money was essentially interest free, at around 0% interest rate. Since Covid ended however, interest rates have shot up to around 5% or higher, in a bid by central banks to bring inflation down. Money is no longer free, and the days of cheap borrowing are behind us for a while to come.
So building quantum computers is hard, really hard, but don’t just take our word for it. Here are some quotes from highly regarded quantum computing researchers and engineers from the past year debunking the myth that quantum computers are “just around the corner”:
“The manifestly false promises of quantum computing, routinely made by unqualified individuals, and the high potential for fraud in the less-than-transparent business schemes of the QC companies operating in a fake-it-until-you-make-it market all but guarantee an eventual collapse”
“There are many "quantum" startups and initiatives, which are promoted and often led by individuals with no relevant expertise or education. What's going on is that there is an army of "quantum evangelists," who can't write the Schrödinger equation (or maybe don't even know what it is), but promote fairy tales about the bounties of the quantum computing revolution, which is supposedly just around the corner. They raise millions of dollars for their startups, which are guaranteed to go down the drain.”
“Talent migrates from legitimate science into quantum evangelism with no content, wasting real gift and intellect on selling quantum snake oil”.
Professor Victor Galitski, Joint Quantum Institute, University of Maryland.
As more money flowed in, the field grew, and it became progressively more tempting for scientists to oversell their results. With time, salesman-type figures, typically without any understanding of quantum physics, entered the field, taking senior positions in companies and focusing solely on generating fanfare. After a few years of this, a highly exaggerated perspective on the promise of quantum computing reached the mainstream, leading to greed and misunderstanding taking hold and the formation of a classic bubble – Nikita Gourianov, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Oxford.
Over the past five years, there has been undeniable hype around quantum computing—hype around approaches, timelines, applications, and more. As far back as 2017, vendors were claiming the commercialization of the technology was just a couple of years away. A system large enough to deliver compelling value won’t be realized for 10 to 15 years, by anyone – James Clarke, Director of Quantum Hardware, Intel Corporation.
Quantum computing is indeed one of the most important developments not only in physics, but in all of science. But “entanglement” and “superposition” are not magic wands that we can shake and expect to transform technology in the near future. Quantum mechanics is indeed weird and counter-intuitive, but that by itself does not guarantee revenue and profit – Professor Sankar Das Sarma, Condensed Matter Theory Center (CMTC), University of Maryland.
Critics also argue that investors currently base their investments in quantum computing on speculation and hype rather than a clear comprehension of its potential. Several startups are already claiming to be the "next big thing" in quantum computing, but many of these companies may not be around in a few years if the bubble bursts – Cristian Randieri, Adjunct Professor, eCampus University.
The question is, will it scale? – Sabine Hossenfelder, Research Fellow, Frankfurt Institute of Advanced Studies.
Comparing the hypothetical future quantum computer to a single classical GPU available today, one finds that more than quadratic speedup—and ideally super-polynomial speedup—is needed. This is a significant finding since many proposed applications of quantum computing rely on the quadratic speedup of specific algorithms, such as Grover’s algorithm – Matthias Troyer, VP & Technical Fellow at Microsoft.
Figure 4 – Tweets from the Condensed Matter Theory Group at the University of Maryland
While quantum mechanics, which describes the ultimate physical reality of our universe, provides a theoretical computational speedup on certain computations and simulations, in order to run these algorithms and processes requires a quantum computer of millions of error-corrected and well-connected qubits – see Figure 5 below. Currently, after forty years of development, we are up to a few hundred noisy qubits with rather low connectivity.
Figure 5 – Practical applications require millions of qubits
In conclusion, it is our opinion that if the VCs and government wanted to fund basic research, they should have simply donated their money directly to universities and research labs. All research on quantum computing should return to universities and national labs (and research labs inside of a few of the bigger well-funded corporates like Google, IBM, Intel & Microsoft). Government (taxpayers) money should be directed back to public research labs as well until the technology is truly ready to come out of the lab and into the commercial market. But that won’t be for many years (or realistically decades). The market, fueled by ignorance, wishful thinking, and the usual irrational exuberance (when will they learn), went to soon – a false dawn. Below are the references where one can get actual facts and hard numbers demonstrating that the hope of building a commercially viable quantum computer has been a fool’s errand all along.
07 May 2023
References
Articles
A lone Nvidia GPU speeds past the physics-straining might of a quantum computer – in these apps at least, 3 May, 2023
https://www.theregister.com/2023/05/03/quantum_reality_check/?td=keepreading
Quantum Advantage, Hope and Hype, Matthias Troyer, Microsoft Quantum, 1 May, 2023
https://cloudblogs.microsoft.com/quantum/2023/05/01/quantum-advantage-hope-and-hype/
Disentangling Hype from Practicality: On Realistically Achieving Quantum Advantage, ACM Communications, May 2023
Evaluating the evidence for exponential quantum advantage in ground-state quantum chemistry, Nature Communications, 7 April, 2023
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-37587-6
Quantum Computing: The Next Frontier Or A Hype-Filled Bubble?, Forbes, 27 Feb, 2023
How worried are you about a looming quantum winter? HPC Wire, 23 Feb, 2023
https://www.hpcwire.com/2023/02/23/how-worried-are-you-about-a-looming-quantum-winter/
Quantum Startups’ Stock Market Dreams Are Decohering, Wired, 10 Jan 2023
https://www.wired.com/story/quantum-startups-stock-market-dreams-are-decohering/
Hype around quantum computing recedes over lack of practical uses. FT, 10 Jan 2023
https://www.ft.com/content/d64e45b4-692a-429e-bc64-146303ec7fdf
New Algorithm Closes Quantum Supremacy Window, Quanta Magazine, 9 Jan 2023
https://www.quantamagazine.org/new-algorithm-closes-quantum-supremacy-window-20230109
After a Quantum Clobbering, One Approach Survives Unscathed, Quanta Magazine, 7 Dec 2022
https://www.quantamagazine.org/after-a-classical-clobbering-a-quantum-advantage-remains-20221207/
Four Benchmarks for VC’s Investing in Quantum Computing, Sifted, 30 Sept 2022
https://sifted.eu/articles/benchmark-quantum-vc-investing/
Disentangling the Facts from the Hype of Quantum Computing, IEEE Spectrum 19 Sept 2022
https://spectrum.ieee.org/ieee-quantum-week?share_id=7228601
Dequantizing algorithms to understand quantum advantage in machine learning, Nature Reviews Physics, 5 Sept, 2022 https://www.nature.com/articles/s42254-022-00511-w
Oxford physicist unloads on quantum computing industry, says it's basically a hype bubble, The Byte, 3 Sept 2022
https://futurism.com/the-byte/oxford-physicist-unloads-quantum-computing
The Quantum Computing Bubble, FT, 25 Aug 2022
https://www.ft.com/content/6d2e34ab-f9fd-4041-8a96-91802bab7765
Google's quantum supremacy challenged by ordinary computers, for now, New Scientist, 18 Aug 2022
Shifting Quantum Investment Dynamics, Russ Fein, 21 July 2022,
https://medium.com/@russfein/shifting-quantum-investment-dynamics-6c5ee3ecc1c4
Hope and Hype in Quantum Computing, The Quantum Poet, 28 June 2022
https://quantumpoet.com/quantum-computing-hype/
UK military wants to install quantum computers in tanks for some reason, The Byte, 11 Jun 2022 https://futurism.com/the-byte/uk-military-quantum-computers-tanks
Quantum computing: Science versus science fiction, Prof Sankar Das Sarma, 5 May 2022
Quantum computing has a hype problem, MIT Technology Review, 28 Mar 2022
https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/03/28/1048355/quantum-computing-has-a-hype-problem/
Quantum Computing Hype is Bad for Science, Prof Victor Galitski, 16 July 2021
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/quantum-computing-hype-bad-science-victor-galitski-1c/
Separating the wheat from the chaff: Quantum technology in an era of hype, McKinsey, 1 July 2021 https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/tech-forward/separating-the-wheat-from-the-chaff-quantum-technology-in-an-era-of-hype
Will Quantum Computing Ever Live Up to Its Hype?, Scientific America, 20 April 2021
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/will-quantum-computing-ever-live-up-to-its-hype/
QC Ethics and Hype, Shtetl Optimized, 20 Mar 2021
https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=5387
Quantum - hype vs. traction | a look at the data, Quantum World blog, 3 Dec 2020
https://quantumcomputing.substack.com/p/quantum-hype-vs-traction-a-look-at-692
Quantum Hype and Quantum Skepticism, Professor Moshe Varde, ACM, May 2019
https://cacm.acm.org/magazines/2019/5/236426-quantum-hype-and-quantum-skepticism/
The Case Against Quantum Computing, Professor Mikhail Dyakonov, 15 Nov 2018
https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-case-against-quantum-computing
Major Quantum Computing Advance Made Obsolete by Teenager, Quanta Magazine, July 2018
The Argument Against Quantum Computers, Quanta Magazine, 7 Feb 2018
https://www.quantamagazine.org/gil-kalais-argument-against-quantum-computers-20180207/
Quantum Algorithms Struggle Against Old Foe: Clever Computers, Quanta Magazine, 1 Feb 2018 https://www.quantamagazine.org/quantum-computers-struggle-against-classical-algorithms-20180201/
The Era of Quantum Computing Is Here. Outlook: Cloudy, Quanta Magazine, 24 Jan 2018
https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-era-of-quantum-computing-is-here-outlook-cloudy-20180124/
Why Quantum Computers Might Not Break Cryptography, Quanta Magazine, 15 May 2017
https://www.quantamagazine.org/why-quantum-computers-might-not-break-cryptography-20170515/
Fake or Retracted Claims
Cargo Cult Quantum Factoring, Shtetl Optimized, 5 Jan 2023, https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6957
Quantum Experts Debunk China Quantum Factoring Claims, Quantum Computing Report, 2023
https://quantumcomputingreport.com/quantum-experts-debunk-china-quantum-factoring-claims/
‘Something is seriously wrong’: Room-temperature superconductivity study retracted, Science, 26 Sept 2022
Major Quantum Computing Strategy Suffers Serious Setbacks, Quanta Magazine, 29 Sept 2021
https://www.quantamagazine.org/major-quantum-computing-strategy-suffers-serious-setbacks-20210929/
Quantum computing’s reproducibility crisis: Majorana fermions, Nature, 12 April 2021
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00954-8
Microsoft’s Big Win in Quantum Computing Was an ‘Error’ After All, Wired, 12 Feb 2021
https://www.wired.com/story/microsoft-win-quantum-computing-error/
People
The following two highly respected professors in computer science and physics, respectively, have spent part of their careers researching and writing papers on why (and how) we will never build a quantum computer.
Prof Gil Kalai, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
https://arxiv.org/search/quant-ph?searchtype=author&query=Kalai%2C+G
Prof Mikhail Dyakonov, University of Montpelier
https://arxiv.org/search/quant-ph?searchtype=author&query=Dyakonov%2C+M
Papers
Cerezo, M. et al, Challenges and Opportunities in Quantum Machine Learning, 16 March, 2023,
https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.09491
Schuld, M. & N. Killoran, Is quantum advantage the right goal for quantum machine learning?, 8 Feb, 2023, https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.01340
Chen, J. et al, The Quantum Fourier Transform Has Small Entanglement, 31 Dec 2022
https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.08468
Lee, S. et al, Is there evidence for exponential quantum advantage in quantum chemistry?, 14 Nov 2022, https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.02199
Beverland, M. et al, Assessing requirements to scale to practical quantum advantage, 14 Nov, 2022, https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.07629
Aharanov, D. et al, A polynomial-time classical algorithm for noisy random circuit sampling, 8 Nov 2022, https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.03999
Chen, S. et al, The Complexity of NISQ, 13 Oct 2022, https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.07234
Ezratty, O., Mitigating the quantum hype, 10 Feb 2022, https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.01925
Cotler, J. et al, Revisiting dequantization and quantum advantage in learning tasks, 6 Dec, 2021, https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.00811
Kalai, Gil, The Argument against Quantum Computers, the Quantum Laws of Nature, and Google's Supremacy Claims, 26 Mar 2021, https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.05188
Zhou, Y. et al, What limits the simulation of quantum computers?, 24 Mar, 2020
https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.07730
Dyakonov, M., When will we have a quantum computer?, 26 Mar 2019
https://arxiv.org/abs/1903.10760
Jones, J.A., Comment on "NMR Experiment Factors Numbers with Gauss Sums", 16 Apr 2007, https://arxiv.org/abs/0704.2065
Aaronson, S., Multilinear Formulas and Skepticism of Quantum Computing, 15 Jul 2004, https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0311039
Investor Reports
Scorpion Capital – link in the article:
Quantum computing startup probed in report, securities suit, 1 June, 2022 https://www.theregister.com/2022/06/01/ionq-quantum-lawsuit/
Books
Will We Ever Have a Quantum Computer, Mikhail Dyakonov, Springer, 2020
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Will-Quantum-Computer-SpringerBriefs-Physics/dp/3030420183/
Quantum Computing: Progress and Prospects, National Academies Press, 2019
https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25196/quantum-computing-progress-and-prospects
Videos
Don’t Fall for the Quantum Hype – Sabine Hossenfelder, Feb, 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-aGIvUomTA
The Problem with Qubits – John Martinis, Jan 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o8vXj9cky54
The Quantum Hype Bubble Is About To Burst – Sabine Hossenfelder, Nov 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBLVtCYHVO8
Why Quantum Computers Won’t Work – Gil Kalai, Feb 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIULkvTGk2U
Why topological quantum computers cannot work – Gil Kalai, 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5gSZsezhoQ
Deep Learning Partnership is a consulting company focusing on enterprise AI solutions. Six years ago, our team started investigating whether quantum computing could provide any kind of value proposition for businesses. In this time, we have found none – our conclusions are in accordance with the references included in this report, as well as our own technical research and due diligence.