TTR0144
Written evidence submitted by the Nuffield Foundation
Introduction
The Nuffield Foundation is an independent charitable trust with a mission to advance educational opportunity and social well-being. We fund research that informs social policy, primarily in Education, Welfare and Justice. We also provide opportunities for young people to develop skills and confidence in science and research.
The Nuffield Foundation has a longstanding interest in funding research to strengthen the teacher workforce. Our submission draws on a number of recent Nuffield Foundation funded research projects which we hope will provide useful for your inquiry into teacher recruitment, training and retention.
Research shows that teacher quality is the single most important school-level factor influencing student outcomes, it is concerning that teacher recruitment and retention rates are in decline. Pressures on teachers have increased since COVID-19, and disadvantage attainment gaps have widened, returning to levels of a decade ago.[1] Given the higher prevalence of teacher shortages in disadvantaged areas, this has potential to exacerbate existing inequalities.
The current situation regarding teacher recruitment and retention
Nuffield Foundation funded research by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) found the easing of pressures on the recruitment and retention during the pandemic was short-lived. The number of trainees entering ITT in 2022 was lower than before the pandemic. Retention rates are expected to return to at least their pre-pandemic levels.[2]
The main factors leading to difficulties are:
Workload
The small improvements in workload just before the pandemic (2016/17 to 2018/19) are thought to be related to the slight easing of teacher leaving rates. However, the number of hours worked by teachers (higher than similar individuals in other professions and higher than the average OECD teacher), the type of work teachers do (the amount of time spent on non-teaching activities) and work intensity remain a problem.[3]
Pay
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) found teacher pay has fallen between 5% and 13% in real terms since 2010.[4] The competitiveness of teacher pay compared to the wider labour market has also fallen since 2010. However, financial incentives (e.g., for hard to recruit subjects and early career payments) have provided some level of buffer.[5]
Accountability
Evidence regarding accountability is mixed. Analysis of the 2018 Teaching and Learning International Survey (TALIS) showed that England sits towards the top of the accountability scale when compared to over 40 other countries. The evidence suggests that this high-stakes regime plays a role in teacher stress with 68% of teachers in England reporting accountability-related stress compared to a cross-country average of 45%. The evidence shows that the level of stress experienced varies by school and the extent to which colleagues are stressed. It is therefore likely that accountability has an indirect link to retention through stress.[6]
The NFER research also found that school leaders in schools with low Ofsted ratings report greater difficulty recruiting teachers and were more likely to report using non-specialist teachers. However, there was no evidence of higher retention in Wales, compared to England, where there is a lower-stakes approach to accountability.
Work by UCL and EPI documented the effects that Ofsted inspections have on intractable schools i.e. those that have been graded as inadequate or requires improvement over a number of inspections.[7]
Part-time and flexible working
Within a post-pandemic context of increasing flexibility, remote and home working, teachers’ work is relatively inflexible. This poses a new threat to the relative attractiveness of teaching compared to other professions. NFER research found that part-time teachers have significantly higher retention rates in Wales compared to comparator schools in England and have higher rates of part-time working, suggesting that greater attention is paid in Wales to making part-time working opportunities available for teachers.[8]
Analysis of the School Workforce Census and other administrative data sources, published in the NFER Teacher Recruitment and Retention in England Data Dashboard, shows the variation by subject in recruitment and retention: [9]
The rate of teachers leaving the state-funded sector (attrition) and the rate of turnover were highest in similar subjects.
A key strategy used by school leaders to mitigate the impact of staff shortages in subjects is to deploy non-specialists. Among three shortage subjects (Maths, Physics and Modern Foreign Languages), a national survey showed that schools reported high use of non-specialist teachers for at least some lessons.[10]
In the same survey, having insufficient science teachers appeared to be an important factor for some schools not offering triple science to any pupils (alongside pupil interest). [11]
A shortage of maths teachers is particularly concerning given the Government’s recent commitment to students studying some form of maths to 18. We have previously written to the committee about post 16 maths. Research commissioned by the Nuffield Foundation into international comparisons of upper secondary mathematics found that that fewer than one in five students in England, Wales and Northern Ireland studied any kind of maths post-16, the lowest levels of participation in the 24 countries surveyed.[12]
The Nuffield Foundation funded an evaluation of the implementation and take-up of Core Maths, as an alternative to Maths A level, which is out of reach for many students. This showed positive views of the qualification: from students about its content and value; from schools and colleges about its distinctive place in their provision; and from employers and higher education institutions about its role in boosting applied numeracy skills.[13]
Our wider research on the labour market shows quantitative skills are necessary for many education and training routes, for most jobs, for growth sectors such as data science and AI and for young people to develop into informed citizens.[14]
Schools with a high proportion of disadvantaged pupils exacerbate workforce challenges in some subjects. In NFER’s national survey, more than half (57 per cent) of secondary school leaders with the highest proportion of disadvantaged pupils reported that at least some physics lessons were staffed by non-specialists compared to 38 per cent for the lowest level of disadvantaged intake. Around a quarter (28 per cent) of leaders in schools with the highest level of disadvantaged pupils reporting that at least some modern foreign language lessons were staffed by non-specialists compared to 16 per cent for schools with the lowest level of disadvantaged children. However, there were not significant differences for maths.
The NFER Teacher Recruitment and Retention in England Data Dashboard displays a range of measures for recruitment, retention and supply by geography and school type. There were no obvious patterns according to region but a clear relationship with disadvantage across a range of measures. The most disadvantaged schools had the highest rates of attrition and turnover and the highest rate of expenditure on supply teachers.
It is clear that teacher effectiveness matters. Nuffield funded work led by Simon Burgess’ showed that the relationships between teachers’ observed practices and student test scores are educationally and economically meaningful: GCSEs rise or fall with the teacher effectiveness ratings and variation in class time use.[15]
COVID-19 had a detrimental effect on children’s attainment and wellbeing, which emphasises both the importance of ensuring that this cohort of children has access to high quality teachers and highlights the greater challenge that teachers are currently facing in educating this cohort. Research from EPI’s report, COVID-19 and Disadvantage Gaps in England 2021 showed the widening attainment gaps at GCSE and post-16.[16] Research by RS Assessment from Hodder Education has documented attainment shortfalls in primary schools following the COVID-19 pandemic.[17]
ISER found a significant rise in emotional and behavioural difficulties among primary school children following the 2020 spring and summer term school closures, a rise that was greater for children who were not prioritised to return to school for the period before the summer holiday.[18]
Similarly, NFER research found that most school leaders reported more pupil wellbeing and mental health problems than usual, especially increased anxiety, as a result of the pandemic. A substantial minority of mainly secondary leaders noted an increase in severe mental health issues, including self-harm. While more primary pupils that usual were reported to be struggling with social skills, confidence and self-esteem, and to have seen a deterioration in their skills for learning, such as concentration, memory and stamina. This research also highlighted that schools were finding it very difficult to secure specialist external support and reported a call from school leaders for early intervention and a multi-agency approach to reduce an escalation in poor mental health and learning incapacity, to support families, and to minimise staff workload and stress.[19]
The rising cost of living has put financial strain on schools and families, potentially affecting schools ability to address the long terms effects of COVID-19.
Ongoing NFER research is looking at how the cost-of-living crisis is affecting schools and pupils and will report later in the summer 2023.[20]
April 2023
[1] Truckett, S., Hunt, E., Robinson, D., and Cruikshanks, R. (2022). COVID-19 and Disadvantage Gaps in England 2021. Available here: https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Covid19_2021_Disadvantage_Gaps_in_England.pdf
[2] Worth, J. (2023) Short Supply: Addressing the Post-Pandemic Teacher Supply Challenge in England. NFER. Available here: https://www.nfer.ac.uk/media/5210/addressing_the_post_pandemic_teacher_supply_challenge.pdf
[3] Worth, J. (2023) Short Supply: Addressing the Post-Pandemic Teacher Supply Challenge in England. NFER. Available here: https://www.nfer.ac.uk/media/5210/addressing_the_post_pandemic_teacher_supply_challenge.pdf
[4] Sibieta, L. (2023) What has happened to teacher pay in England. IFS. Available here: https://ifs.org.uk/articles/what-has-happened-teacher-pay-england
[5] Worth, J. (2023) Short Supply: Addressing the Post-Pandemic Teacher Supply Challenge in England. NFER. Available here: https://www.nfer.ac.uk/media/5210/addressing_the_post_pandemic_teacher_supply_challenge.pdf
[6] Jerrim, J. (2021). ‘Teachers point towards school accountability as main driver of stress’. UCL. Available here: https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/news/teachers-point-towards-school-accountability-as-main-driver-of-stress
[7] Munoz-Chereau, B., Ehren, M., and Hutchinson, J. (2022). ‘Intractable’ schools: can Ofsted judgement prevent sustainable improvement. Available here: https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/project/intractable-schools-can-an-ofsted-judgement-prevent-sustainable-improvement
[8] Faulkner-Ellis, H. and Worth, J. (2022). Comparative analysis of teacher attrition in England and Wales. NFER. Available here: https://www.nfer.ac.uk/comparative-analysis-of-teacher-attrition-rates-in-england-and-wales/
[9] Teacher recruitment and retention in England data dashboard. NFER. Available here: https://www.nfer.ac.uk/key-topics-expertise/school-workforce/teacher-recruitment-and-retention-in-england-data-dashboard
[10]Worth, J. and Faulkner-Ellis, H. (2022). Teacher supply and shortages: the implications of teacher supply challenges for schools and pupils. NFER. Available here: https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/teacher_supply_and_shortages_NFER-report.pdf
[11] Worth, J. and Faulkner-Ellis, H. (2022). Teacher supply and shortages: the implications of teacher supply challenges for schools and pupils. NFER. Available here: https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/teacher_supply_and_shortages_NFER-report.pdf
[12] Hodgen, J. and Pepper, D. (2010). Is the UK an outlier? An international comparison of upper secondary mathematics education. The Nuffield Foundation. Available here: https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Is-the-UK-an-Outlier_Nuffield-Foundation_v_FINAL.pdf
[13] Homer, M. et al. (2020). The early take-up of Core Maths: success and challenges. University of Leeds. Available here: https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Core-Maths-Final-Report-Sept-2020.pdf
[14] Wilson, R. et al. (2022). The Skills Imperative 2035: Occupational Outlook – Long-run employment prospects for the UK. NFER. Available here: https://www.nfer.ac.uk/media/5076/the_skills_imperative_2035_working_paper_2_headline_report.pdf
[15] Burgess, S., Rawal, S., and Taylor, E. (2022) Characterising Effective Teaching. University of Bristol. Available here: https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Burgess-Characterising-Effective-Teaching-Short-Paper-April-2022.pdf
[16] Truckett, S., Hunt, E., Robinson, D., and Cruikshanks, R. (2022). COVID-19 and Disadvantage Gaps in England 2021. Available here: https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Covid19_2021_Disadvantage_Gaps_in_England.pdf
[17] Blainey, K. et al. (2023). The longer-term impact of COVID-19 on pupil attainment and well-being. Available here: https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/project/the-longer-term-impact-of-covid-19-on-pupil-attainment-and-well-being
[18] Rabe, B. et al. (2021). School closures hit children’s mental health hard. Available here: https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/news/new-evidence-shows-how-school-closures-hit-childrens-mental-health-hard
[19] Nelson, J., Lynch, S., and Sharp, C. (2021). Recovery during a pandemic: the ongoing impacts of Covid-19 on schools serving deprived communities. NFER. Available here: https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/recovery_during_a_pandemic.pdf
[20] Julius, J. and Skipp, A. (February 2022 – December 2023). Cost of living crisis: the impact on schools. Available here: https://www.nuffieldfoundation.org/project/cost-of-living-impact-on-schools