Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) ARC0022
Written evidence submitted by CPOM
The Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) studies both the Arctic climate system, sea ice, the relationship between ice sheets and sea levels. We work closely with space agencies to exploit satellite datasets and mission opportunities, and provide scientific and technical support for the European Space Agency’s polar missions. Our work also underpins a wider portfolio of Arctic research involving major UK research partners, including the British Antarctic Survey, the National Oceanography Centre, the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, National Centre for Earth Observation and the UK Met Office.
CPOM Director:
Prof. Andy Shepherd
Contributing Authors include:
Inès Otosaka, Research Fellow
Samantha Buzzard, Lecturer in Climate Science
Charlotte Royle, CPOM manager
Jennifer Maddalena, Research Associate
The Arctic environment
What are the consequences for the UK of the observed climatic and environmental changes in the Arctic?
Land ice decline causing sea level rise
The melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and glaciers in the Arctic contributes to rising sea levels, putting at risk coastal population in the UK by increasing the risk and frequency of coastal inundations. Ice losses from the Greenland Ice Sheet have increased by a factor 7 over the course of the satellite record covering the period 1992 to 2020, with Greenland contributing 13.6 mm to global mean sea level rise over this 29-year record (Otosaka et al., 2023). Greenland is now losing 257 billion tonnes of ice every year, and accounts for 17 % of the total sea level rise (Otosaka et al., 2023). Glaciers located in the Arctic region, which include glaciers located in the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet, in Svalbard, in Iceland, in Alaska, in the Russian Arctic, and in the Canadian Arctic regions - covering an area of 399,600 km2 (Randolph Glacier Inventory, version 6.0) - lost mass at a rate of 190 billion tonnes per year between 2010 and 2019 (Hugonnet et al., 2021).
Increased ice losses from the Greenland ice sheet and from the ice caps and peripheral glaciers in the Arctic lead to higher coastal flood risk. Increase in relative sea level has been identified as the main driver of future coastal flood risk (Howard et al., 2019). Sea level rise caused by ice losses in the Arctic lead to more frequent storm surges, requiring new adaptation strategies. The degree of protection of the Thames Barrier, built to protect the floodplain of Greater London against extreme sea levels with a return frequency of 1 in 100 years, will decrease by a factor 10 within the next 38 years even under a low climate warming scenario (SSP1-2.6) (Hermans et al., 2023).
UK weather
The weather and climate of the UK is shaped by the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere and ocean in the North Atlantic. Major changes to the Arctic – North Atlantic climate system are occurring, such as rising ocean and atmospheric temperatures, rapid loss of Arctic sea ice and shifts in atmospheric circulation. Climate change in the Arctic-North Atlantic Region and Impacts on the UK (CANARI) is a major research programme which will further our understanding of the impacts on the UK arising from climate variability and change in the Arctic-North Atlantic region. It will focus on extreme weather and the potential for rapid, disruptive change.
What are the observable realities of ice decline for biodiversity, air quality, sea level changes, permafrost melt and levels of methane?
Sea Level Rise
See above response.
Arctic Sea ice decline
The Arctic sea ice extent has been declining since the late 1970s, with the most rapid decline occurring in recent decades (see Figure 1 below). According to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), the Arctic sea ice extent in September 2021 was the second-lowest on record, following the record low in 2012. The Arctic sea ice is also becoming younger and thinner, with less of it surviving multiple years.
Declining Arctic sea ice impacts ecosystems and critical habitats as well as altering ocean properties and Arctic weather patterns. There are also economic opportunities but these come with associated environmental and social risks that should be properly assessed.
Figure 1: Annual September Minimum Arctic sea ice extent (NASA: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/)
The UK’s contribution to the Arctic through scientific research
What are the benefits for the UK of support for Arctic research activity?
CPOM has trained over 100 PhD students since its inception in 2000. These students have gone on to pursue careers in academia, industry, and government, working on a range of topics related to the cryosphere and climate change. Since the start of the second phase of CPOM in 2019, CPOM has trained over 40 PhD students and has 20 staff members.
Our assessments and predictions of Earth’s changing land and sea ice cover are of high societal importance because they reflect and drive high-impact changes in the global climate system. We lead international efforts to quantify the sea level contribution due to the polar ice sheets and to predict their future contributions, we partner with space agencies to provide scientific leadership for satellite missions, we produce and distribute unique and widely-used records of Earth’s sea ice and ice sheet thickness change, and we supply the land ice and sea ice elements of the UK Earth System Model. Recent examples of our work include using satellite observations to show that ice losses from Greenland and Antarctica have accelerated fivefold since the 1990’s, and that Earth is losing over 1 trillion tons of its grounded and floating ice per year, to improve the fidelity of sea ice models, and to reduce uncertainty in global sea level projections. This knowledge is of critical importance for developing effective climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.
CPOM brings together a broad network of scientists across 10 UK universities and BAS. We work in close partnership with the National Oceanography Centre (NOC), the UK Met Office (UKMO), the European Space Agency (ESA), and the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). As well as strengthening our scientific program, our collaborations provide career-enhancement opportunities for our junior staff. Our data products are freely available and are routinely used in global climate assessments, and we share them widely with governments, national agencies, stakeholders, and end-users to maximise their impact.
What more could the UK do to improve or increase its contribution to Arctic science?
It is important to promote equity, diversity and inclusion (EDI) in addition to our scientific contribution. The UK is in a great position to be able to lead EDI in the polar sciences. Edinburgh are hosting Arctic Science Summit Week 2024 and existing programs such as the Diversity in UK Polar Science Initiative and the British Antarctic Survey's polar internships are positive steps in the right direction. However, these activities always need funding and at the moment they are Antarctic science focussed. We would welcome additional funds to cover all polar science. The figure below examined data from the 2017 Office of National Statistics Research Report on the percentages of minority groups in UK society and compared these with data from STEM higher education and UK polar science. This created a benchmark from which to measure improvement and demonstrates how critical it is to get EDI support in the polar sciences.
(2017 Office of National Statistics Research Report)
How do the findings of scientific research into the Arctic’s climate and environment inform the UK’s Arctic policy?
Although CPOM is not directly involved in Arctic policy development, we would stress that the general willingness of the UK to support Arctic research, through National Capability funds, as well as competitive grant funding, enables national and international policy decisions to be based on sound science. This should continue.
How can future Arctic research in UK institutions be supported so as to maintain and enhance the UK’s leadership in Arctic science?
To maintain and enhance the UK’s leadership in Arctic Science it is essential that strategic, long-term investment in research National Capability is continued. It is essential that funding strategies are suited to the nature of the data we use. The volumes of data used, alongside subsequent analysis and maintenance, is vast and requires stable, long-term funding streams. Many of CPOM’s affiliated and associate members are on short-term contacts, that are prevalent in current funding streams, which results in knowledge being lost from high staff turnover and negatively impacting operational systems. Further, the combination of earth observation and AI is a critical interface for the polar sciences going forwards and making permanent or open-ended contracts available will help attract a wider talent pool. Expanding long term funding strategies is one of the most pertinent differences that can be made for future Arctic research and would ensure that the UK remains a world leader in Arctic Science.
Future Arctic research in the UK would aid collaborations with Arctic research organisations around the world, which would help to share expertise and resources, promote international cooperation and enhance the impact of research initiatives.
What factors govern the commissioning of Arctic research programmes in UK scientific institutions, and to what extent are the outputs of such programmes used in contributions to multilateral scientific assessments such as the IPCC?
CPOM’s work is supported by National Capability funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) in partnership with the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), and this underpins a broader programme of world-leading research carried out in collaboration with a wide range of strategic partners. National Capability (NC) funding supports research that is vital for the long-term success of UK environmental science, but whose scale and complexity means it cannot be delivered in an openly competitive way. NERC’s way of commissioning this through Long Term Science Single Centre (LTSS) and Long Term Science Multi Centre (LTSM) funding encourages its research centres to work closely together to tackle the major scientific and societal challenges which no single institute has the capacity to address. Instead they need an integrated team of scientists working across institutional and disciplinary boundaries in a coherent, strategic manner. CPOM was involved in three NC-LTSM initiatives from 2016 to 2021: ORCHESTRA (Ocean Regulation of Climate by Heat and Carbon Sequestration and Transports), ACSIS (The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study) and UKESM (The UK Earth System Modelling Project). We are now involved in three new LTSM initiatives: BIOPOLE - Biogeochemical processes and ecosystem function in changing polar systems and their global impacts, TerraFIRMA – Future Impacts, Risks and Mitigation Actions in a changing Earth system, CANARI - Climate change in the Arctic – North Atlantic region and impacts on the UK. All of these newly commissioned programmes are running for five years.
CPOM provides for and engages with the wider community. We make our satellite data records and numerical models freely available, and they are widely used within the UK and beyond. Our engagement strategy is focussed in three areas; (i) we maintain collaborations with field scientists, ship and aircraft operators, explorers, and indigenous communities to obtain in situ measurements for verification of our satellite products, (ii) we work closely with international agencies to develop and improve satellite retrievals, sensors, data records, and missions, and (iii) we coordinate and participate in community activities on polar observations and modelling to ensure that our collective efforts address key scientific challenges. This allows our data to be used in multilateral scientific assessments.
We also participate in and often lead multilateral community efforts to develop and exploit satellite observations and numerical models of the polar regions. Key examples include our leadership of IMBIE (an international collaboration of polar scientists, providing improved estimates of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise), our leadership of ISMIP6, which coordinates ice sheet model experiments and projections for IPCC, our establishment of the UK Sea Ice Group, which shares advances in national sea ice research, our partnership with the UK Earth System Model development and evaluation, and our participation in the NERC-NSF Sea Ice Prediction Network. We also co-author IPCC Assessment Reports. CPOM Principal Investigator, Prof. Tony Payne, was one of the lead authors of the IPCC report on 1.5 degrees of warming. Most recently, CPOM PhD researcher, Robbie Mallett (UCL) attended COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, with the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative.
What research activities concerning the climate and environment ought to be eligible for UK support through the NERC?
The multi-million pound research streams are useful but we also need smaller scale projects that are critical for proof-of-concept scientific investigation. Smaller scale funds to complement the bigger projects would also be far more accessible to early career researchers.
Has the UK’s departure from the EU had an impact on UK research in the Arctic? Has there been any impact on agreements on international cooperation, joint research projects and access to funding streams such as Horizon Europe?
Yes, there has been a direct impact in terms of loss of funding, international cooperation and prestige, as UK researchers have been excluded from EU Copernicus projects and funding streams, and have been ineligible to accept Horizon Europe awards.
Arctic research, such as validation of the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-3 mission (a satellite used for monitoring the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic sea ice) was initially led by CPOM members before the UK’s departure from the EU, but has since been retracted and is now led by our European colleagues.
April 2023