Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office              ARC0019

Written evidence submitted by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office

The Government welcomes the Environmental Audit Committee Sub-Committee on Polar Research’s inquiry on ‘The UK and the Arctic Environment’.

On 9 February 2023, the Government published a new UK Arctic Policy Framework, Looking North: The UK and the Arctic[1]. This builds on the UK’s previous Arctic Policy Framework, Beyond the Ice, published in 2018.

Looking North sets out the UK’s long-term interests in the region, including in relation to many of the questions the sub-committee has asked in its call for evidence.

In addressing the sub-committee’s questions below, we have referenced relevant sections of the new Arctic Policy Framework, while adding additional detail where appropriate. We have also appended the new Framework to this written evidence.

1. The Arctic environment

In recent decades, the Arctic has warmed much faster than the global average, at least three times faster[2], with some studies estimating nearly four times faster[3]. Climate change will continue to have a devastating impact on Arctic ecosystems and communities, with increases in the frequency and intensity of rapid sea-ice loss events, melt events on the Greenland Ice Sheet, wildfires and permafrost thaw. Unique ecosystems are at risk and some are vanishing, and the change in climate is threatening the subsistence, harvest-based livelihoods of small Arctic communities – especially Indigenous communities.

Looking North recognises that changes in the Arctic environment have already begun to affect the UK through global sea rise, changes to our climate and weather patterns and threats to our shared biodiversity. The Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP)[4], the primary independent source of marine climate change impacts evidence and adaptation advice in the UK, provides updates on observed and potential future climate impacts to support adaptation to these changes. Many UK scientists have made significant contributions to these assessments and those that underpin the forthcoming OSPAR Quality Status Review of the North East Atlantic including the Arctic Region.

Mean sea level around the UK has risen by about 12-16cm since 1900 and is projected to rise further, e.g. by 45-78cm in London by 2100, with increases in flooding and erosion[5]. Some of this will be driven by the contributions of ice loss from Arctic glaciers and ice sheets to global sea level rise.

Evidence for impacts of polar warming on mid latitude weather is increasing but they are projected to be modest, compared to natural variability. Potential impacts of a warming Arctic on UK climate may include a weakening of the polar vortex, weakening of storm tracks, and shifting positions of the jet stream, leading to changes in climate extremes (both winter cold spells and summer heatwaves, droughts and floods)[6].

Climate-induced changes in seasonal sea ice extent and thickness are altering marine primary productivity in the Arctic Ocean, with impacts on ecosystems and implications for fisheries and conservation of ice-dependent species relevant to the UK. Commercially and ecologically important fish stocks like Atlantic cod, haddock and mackerel have expanded their spatial distribution northwards many hundreds of kilometres[7].

Shipping activity during the Arctic summer has increased concurrent with reductions in sea ice extent and the UK is strategically placed to take advantage of this. The potential for transit shipping through the Arctic could result in large fuel savings and reduced greenhouse gas emissions, but this comes with operational navigation challenges, risks of pollution and disruption for migratory marine mammals and birds[8].

The Government is committed to ensuring that climate change adaptation and resilience are fully considered and integrated in our marine and fisheries policies. Under the Climate Change Act, government committed to laying policies and proposals before parliament to address the 61 risks identified by the third Climate Change Risk Assessment. We will do so through the third National Adaptation Programme, due to be published in 2023.

In December 2022, Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) agreed the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). The GBF set out ambitious global goals and targets, including the “30x30” target, and is centred around the mission to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030. To achieve this mission, the GBF must be fully implemented at the global level, including in the vulnerable Arctic region. Urgent, global action is also essential to help safeguard the Arctic ecosystems currently being devastated by climate change. The UK is committed to playing its part, leading international coalitions supporting the global implementation of the GBF, including the Global Ocean Alliance.

Arctic waters constitute approximately 40% of the OSPAR maritime area. As a contracting party to OSPAR, the UK is coordinating with the other parties to better understand the observed climatic and environmental changes across its maritime region. Launched in 2021, OSPAR’s North East Atlantic Environment Strategy (NEAES) 2030 has climate change at its heart, with five strategic objectives that focus on building ecosystem resilience, ocean acidification, and adaption and mitigation efforts, to achieve seas resilient to the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification:

-          Strategic objective 5. Protect and conserve marine biodiversity, ecosystems and their services to achieve good status of species and habitats, and thereby maintain and strengthen ecosystem resilience;

-          Strategic objective 6. Restore degraded habitats in the North-East Atlantic when practicable to safeguard their ecosystem function and resilience to climate change and ocean acidification;

-          Strategic objective 10. Raise awareness of climate change and ocean acidification by monitoring, analysing and communicating their effects;

-          Strategic objective 11. Facilitate adaptation to the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification by considering additional pressures when developing programmes, actions and measures; and

-          Strategic objective 12. Mitigate climate change and ocean acidification by contributing to global efforts, including by safeguarding the marine environment’s role as a natural carbon store.

The Arctic is a sink for global pollutants, such as plastics, chemicals and air pollutants, which are transported long distances and deposited in the region through wind and ocean currents. Since many pollutants and marine litter impacting the Arctic originate outside of the region, global action is required. The UK has committed to improve the situation through domestic and international action, both of which will contribute to protecting the Arctic. The UK is working with other contracting parties to OSPAR to prevent and significantly reduce marine litter in the North-East Atlantic, including through the new OSPAR Regional Action Plan on Marine Litter published in June 2022. The UK also participates in monitoring programmes to assess regional trends in marine litter and reports this monitoring data to OSPAR. Due to the light-absorbing properties, microplastics may accelerate the melting rate of ice in the Arctic, which in turn could increase the release of plastic pollutants trapped in the ice.

Action must be taken to tackle climate change and minimise the devastating impacts on the Arctic and the rest of the world.

The Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) summarised the evidence for observed changes to Arctic sea ice in 2020[9] reporting that Arctic sea ice extent continues to decline, Arctic sea ice is thinning, snow accumulation has declined, sea ice is drifting faster and southward sea ice export has increased. Observed effects of sea ice thinning for biodiversity include increased light penetration, which leads to massive under-ice phytoplankton blooms with cascading changes through the food web, and impacts for macro and mega-fauna that time their feeding and reproduction to coincide with sea-ice melt.

The UK makes key contributions to monitoring the connections between the North Atlantic and Arctic to increase understanding of the role of cold deep-water current in the global ocean circulation. Freshwater build-up has been observed in the Arctic Ocean, which might have implications in the future for the currents that bring warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, although no clear trends over time to the currents have been identified[10].

Observing the impacts of climate change in the hostile Arctic environment is challenging, but the UK is a leader in ocean observations from a range of platforms that include ice-strengthened vessels, aircraft, autonomous vehicles and satellites. Through the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030) and the G7 Future of the Seas and Oceans Initiative, UK experts have the opportunity to work collectively with international partners on research and observation priorities for the Arctic, to facilitate a better understanding and ensure that science delivers greater benefit for society.

2. The UK’s Arctic interests

UK business interests in the Arctic

As the nearest neighbour to the Arctic, the UK is committed to promoting our shared prosperity across the Arctic region, including economic opportunities for UK businesses. Our vision is for a prosperous Arctic, with economic and commercial development achieved in a way that is safe, responsible and sustainable. The UK supports the right of people living in the Arctic to pursue prosperity and economic stability, while recognising the importance of commercial development not damaging the Arctic’s natural environment or destabilising peaceful cooperation, which are crucial to the prosperity of many communities across the Arctic.

Looking North explains that the Government welcomes the outcomes of COP26 and strongly endorses the need to work together to deliver on the Paris Agreement, the Glasgow Climate Pact and the transition to a Net Zero World by 2050, in order to limit global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees. The UK expects other countries to deliver on these joint climate commitments, but also respects their right to determine the route they take to meeting these goals, including how they regulate the production and use of hydrocarbons.

Critical minerals are important to a wide range of technologies including electric vehicle batteries and motors, wind turbine generators, solar panels, semiconductor chips, sensors, aerospace and defence alloys, and many more. Secure access to critical minerals is required to deliver the UK’s Net Zero strategy, the Government’s Ten Point Plan for a green industrial revolution, and the objectives in the Integrated Review, among others.

Globally, demand for some critical minerals is forecast to quadruple by 2040, although for minerals needed for EVs and battery storage such as lithium, growth could increase by forty times by 2040. This may lead some countries to explore options to extract critical minerals from the Arctic region. As noted in Looking North, while decisions on what regulations should apply are matters for national authorities, the UK will continue to encourage all countries to adopt the highest standards of environmental and social governance. We are also working to shape these governance frameworks through participation in initiatives such as the Voluntary Principles on Security and Human Rights in the Extractive Industries, and the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative.

Looking North also sets out the UK’s deep concern over the potential impacts of mining activities on the fragile marine environment, given the growing pressure to extract deep-sea resources. The UK continues to advocate for the highest environmental standards in negotiations at the International Seabed Authority (ISA), which, under UNCLOS, regulates and controls all mineral-related activities in the seabed, ocean floor and subsoil beyond the limits of national jurisdiction, including part of the Arctic seabed which falls within ‘the Area’. The Government’s approach to deep-sea mining is both precautionary and conditional – it has the precautionary principle at its core. The Government has committed not to sponsor or support the issuing of any exploitation licences for deep-sea mining projects unless and until there is sufficient scientific evidence about the potential impact on deep-sea ecosystems, and strong and enforceable environmental regulations and standards have been developed by the ISA and are in place.

The UK has a direct interest in the fisheries within the Arctic region, while a substantial share of fish consumed in the UK originates in the Arctic Ocean and neighbouring waters. As referenced in Looking North, 70% of UK seafood imports between January and November 2021 came from countries within the Arctic region, with Norway, Iceland and the Faroe Islands being the three largest import locations for the UK seafood trade in value terms.

Future years are likely to see an increase in Arctic tourism with an associated increase in visitor numbers, including from the UK. Through the Arctic Council’s Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) Working Group, the UK co-led the Arctic Marine Tourism Project jointly with Canada and Iceland, which demonstrated a total increase of 35% in individual passenger vessel numbers operating within the Arctic (as defined by the Polar Code) between 2013 and 2019.

Looking North notes that the UK may benefit significantly as new maritime trade routes open up through the Arctic region, given our geographical position. These transit routes are estimated to reduce travel time between Asia and northern Europe by 10-12 days, presenting time savings while also cutting fuel costs and emissions for shipping companies. There would, however, be specific challenges to overcome, including new technology required given the challenges of transport through the Arctic. There would also likely be implications for insurance, environmental and labour regulation, and international agreement over territorial boundaries.

The UK is working actively with international partners to ensure there are effective governance and environmental protections in place to regulate ships operating in Arctic waters as they become increasingly accessible, including working through the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

UK military interests in the Arctic

Looking North builds on the Ministry of Defence’s 2022 publication, “The UK’s Defence Contribution in the High North[11]. Both papers reiterate the UK’s goal to support low tension and high cooperation in the High North.

Equally, we must be ready to respond appropriately to the changing regional dynamic arising from the receding sea ice. The further opening-up of the Arctic region brings with it heightened competition and militarisation of the Arctic. Russia is taking an increasingly militarised approach and has steadily increased activity in the region, establishing a new Northern Joint Strategic Command, reopening Cold War-era bases above the Arctic Circle and investing further in Arctic-capable equipment. China is also increasing investment and activity in the region and supporting its proposed Polar Silk Road strategy with a range of infrastructure and capabilities, including ports and plans for a nuclear icebreaker.

The UK Government is committed to: 1) protect our Critical National Infrastructure and our other national interests, and those of our Allies; 2) ensure our freedom to navigate and operate across the wider region; 3) reinforce the rules-based international system, particularly UNCLOS; and 4) contest malign and destabilising behaviours. The UK has committed to deliver these objectives through Allies and partners, including NATO and the JEF, to align capability, policy and activity. We will also improve our understanding of the region using our specialist geospatial centres.

Regarding our forces, Royal Navy vessels are capable of meeting the additional environmental standards expected of merchant vessels under the International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) Polar Code when operating in Arctic waters. The Polar Code prohibits discharges of oily water and sewage outside of IMO defined Special Areas. Most Navy vessels will have a limit of duration before some discharges would need to be made, however these limitations are well known and would feature in operational planning. As such discharges by merchant ships are prohibited in Arctic Waters, the additional environmental impacts of Navy vessels operating in the High North are considered to be minimal. Shipping can generate underwater noise, however Royal Navy vessels have an inherently lower acoustic footprint than most merchant vessels so have lower impact. In the Air, any environmental impact would be due to use of current conventional aviation operational fuel and associated emissions, but we are proactively working to trial and use, where cost and operationally effective, lower environmental impact fuels, such as sustainable and synthetic hydrocarbon aviation fuels: these could reduce current operational fuel emissions by 80% compared to use of conventional fossil-based aviation fuels. From a Land perspective, we are currently limited to conventional fossil fuels in most equipment, but work is ongoing to look at future more sustainable power sources as technologies develop.

3. The UK’s contribution to the Arctic through scientific research

As set out in Looking North, Arctic research helps solve global challenges for the benefit of all. Research helps to develop practical responses in the face of unprecedented change and better understand the role the Arctic has and will play within the global system.

The expertise of the UK Arctic research community – alongside our diplomatic missions and defence capabilities – is key to helping maintain the Arctic as a place that is safe, secure, peaceful, and well-governed.

The UK’s research expertise is an important part of the UK’s offer to the Arctic region, and these international collaborations also deliver benefits for the UK through strengthening our bilateral relationships with our Arctic partners and increasing our influence in multilateral forums, including through the Arctic Council’s Working Groups, as detailed in Looking North.

The new policy framework reiterates our commitment made in the 2021 Integrated Review to maintaining a significant contribution to Arctic science. Since 2012, through UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), researchers based in the UK have received over £56 million in Arctic science funding, in addition to investment in infrastructure and other assets.

More broadly, the Government has committed to increasing public expenditure on R&D to £20 billion per annum by 2024/2025. This represents a cash increase of around a third and is the largest ever increase in public R&D budget over a Spending Review (SR) period. The total UKRI allocation is £25.1 billion for 2022-2025 and will reach over £8.8 billion in 2024-2025, its highest ever level and over £1 billion more than 2021-2022.

Decisions over which individual research projects or programmes are supported by UKRI are made independently from government once the broad allocations are set at Spending Review, as per the Haldane principle. This states that decisions about which research projects to fund should be made through independent evaluation by experts, based on the quality and likely impact of that research.

The NERC supports most of the UK’s natural science research in the Arctic and therefore will be most informed about the specific needs for Arctic research in UK institutions.

As highlighted in Looking North, the biannual UK Arctic Science Conferences and the UK Arctic and Antarctic Partnership provide opportunities for the wider research community to think and act collectively to maximise its impact.

In addition, the Government welcomes the growth of the University of the Arctic which now lists twelve UK institutions among its members[12], offering valuable opportunities for joint funding, networking and student exchange.

Looking North reaffirms the UK’s commitment to being a leading producer of Arctic science and an active partner in international research collaborations. In particular, the UK’s approach recognises that increasing international and multidisciplinary collaboration is vital for tackling the most pressing research questions.

European scientific cooperation

The Government is committed to multilateral scientific collaboration, including with European counterparts – that’s why we agreed to participate in Horizon Europe in 2020 under the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). The Government welcomes the EU’s recent openness to discussions on UK association to EU Programmes following two years of delays. We are discussing association to Horizon Europe with the EU, and hope our negotiations will be successful, but association would have to be on fair and appropriate terms.

To support researchers during this period, the government announced an extension to the support provided to UK Horizon Europe applicants until the end of June, which has totalled more than £882 million to-date. Eligible, successful applicants to Horizon Europe will receive the full value of their funding at their UK host institution for the lifetime of their grant.

The Government will continue to ensure that UK researchers and businesses benefit from world-leading collaboration opportunities with colleagues from Europe and beyond.

International scientific cooperation

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine fundamentally undermined the peaceful cooperation that had characterised the Arctic Council since its inception. While Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine, business as usual is not appropriate and this must sadly include scientific cooperation. For this to change Russia must substantively change their behaviour.

As set out in Looking North, the UK strongly supported the seven other Arctic States in their decision to pause engagement with the Russian Chairmanship. We also welcomed their decision in June 2022 to restart a number of Arctic Council Working Group projects that do not involve the participation of the Russian Federation. The UK has continued to engage in projects that have restarted without Russian participation: for example, the UK is co-leading (with the United States and WWF) work on the Management of Arctic Marine Oil and Gas Associated Noise in the Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) Working Group.

The UK has also continued to engage in Arctic scientific co-operation through our bilateral relationships with our Arctic partners, including through the work of the UK Science and Innovation Network (SIN). In 2021, together with partners in Canada, we launched the Canada-Inuit Nunangat-UK (CINUK) Arctic Research Programme[13], contributing nearly £8m of UK funding (out of around £12m total) towards 13 research projects that will put the needs and skills of the Arctic’s Indigenous communities at the heart of Arctic research. In August 2022, we established a research bursary programme to support new collaborations with partners in Greenland. In the programme’s first year, we are supporting 13 UK-Greenlandic science partnerships with £225k of funding. Next year, the UK will host the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC)’s annual Arctic Science Summit Week in Edinburgh, bringing together around 1,000 Arctic researchers to develop new partnerships for Arctic scientific co-operation.

We stand ready to recommence participation in broader multilateral cooperation across the Arctic region when appropriate.

4. The UK’s contribution to the Arctic through diplomacy and military support

The UK is an active participant in international diplomacy on the Arctic, including through engagement in multilateral organisations, treaties and conventions such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO).

We enjoy strong relationships with almost all Arctic states, and in our new Arctic Policy Framework, we have committed to strengthening our bilateral partnerships with our Arctic partners and Allies to enhance our influence and positive contribution as the nearest and best possible neighbour to the region. The Framework also details the UK’s extensive bilateral cooperation with our Arctic partners and Allies.

Looking North sets out the UK’s continued commitment to the Arctic Council as the preeminent intergovernmental forum promoting cooperation in the Arctic. Through our role as a State Observer, we will support the incoming Norwegian Chairmanship of the Arctic Council from May 2023 as they look to continue the Council’s important work, including on issues relating to the Arctic environment. The UK has played an active role in the Council’s Working Groups, particularly through the Protection of the Marine Environment (PAME). We will continue to seek ways to enhance the UK’s contribution to the work of the Arctic Council under the Norwegian Chairmanship.

As a strong advocate of a stable and peaceful international order, the UK recognises the importance of negotiated and consensus-driven agreements, such as UNCLOS, that provide an additional platform for engagement between the Arctic States and the wider international community.

UNCLOS is a critical part of the international system, providing the legal framework for the exercise of the rights and responsibilities of coastal states, including in the Arctic, and for regulating the various uses of Arctic waters. The UK is committed to working with international partners to uphold UNCLOS.

Through our membership of the IMO, the UK was active and influential in the development of The International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (the Polar Code), which includes provisions for environmental protection matters relevant to ships operating in the Arctic and Antarctic. The UK continues to engage actively on the development of the Polar Code, including developing Phase 2 covering the application to those ships not subject to the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea, 1974 (SOLAS), including fishing vessels, private yachts and small cargo ships (under 500GT). We are also leading international efforts at the IMO to reduce emissions from international shipping, as part of the transition to Net Zero for the UK’s maritime services sector. We will continue to advocate for the highest possible shipping standards and adherence to the Polar Code, as Arctic shipping routes become more open.

The UK also makes an active contribution to the stability of the Arctic through our bilateral and multilateral defence partnerships. We are a member of the Arctic Security Forces Roundtable (ASFR) and a NATO Ally, as well as playing a leading role in the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) and the Northern Group. We are committed to supporting our partners and Allies to ensure the peace and stability of the wider Arctic region.

The UK also continues to send delegations to Arctic conferences such as the Arctic Circle Assembly, Arctic Frontiers, and Arctic Futures, among others, which provide a platform to demonstrate UK presence and influence in the Arctic, particularly showcasing the UK’s scientific expertise that can contribute ideas and learning for the benefit of all.

April 2023