Dr Jennifer Maddalena, Dr David Parkes, Dr Jennie Gilbert, Professor Crispin Halsall, Dr Amber Leeson, Dr Peter Wynn, Lancaster University ARC0017

Written evidence submitted Dr Jennifer Maddalena, Dr David Parkes, Dr Jennie Gilbert, Professor Crispin Halsall, Dr Amber Leeson, Dr Peter Wynn, Lancaster University/LEC

This submission is a collection of comments by researchers at Lancaster University, primarily within the Lancaster Environment Centre (LEC), who have expertise relating to Arctic science. For the past ten years, LEC has been one of the largest and most impactful centres for environmental study in the world. In that time, it has forged valuable links with a wide range of influential agencies, institutions and companies including two of the world’s most active and productive research organisations – Rothamsted Research and the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. The purpose of this submission is to convey a scientific understanding of changes in the Arctic and their impact on the UK, and to describe the way Arctic research is conducted in the UK and how it can be best supported. The submission does not represent the university as an institution. This document has been prepared by Jennifer Maddalena and David Parkes who can be contacted regarding this submission – requests for further comment are welcome.

Authors contributing to this submission:

Dr Jennifer Maddalena, Research Associate

Dr David Parkes, Senior Research Associate

Dr Jennie Gilbert, Senior Lecturer

Professor Crispin Halsall, Faculty Director of Natural Sciences

Dr Amber Leeson, Reader in Glaciology

Dr Peter Wynn, Reader

The Arctic environment

Sea level rise and associated coastal flooding is a major threat to much of the UK as an island nation. The largest drivers of sea level change are terrestrial ice mass loss (glaciers and ice caps, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets) and thermal expansion of ocean water. The melting of the Greenland ice sheet represents a major contributor to ongoing sea level rise, and the warming of the Arctic is happening at up to 4 times the rate of global average temperature increases. Rising mean sea levels are not uniformly distributed across the globe, and rising sea levels combined with changes in the frequency of major storms can significantly change the expected frequency of major coastal flooding events. Sea ice retreat means more open water, increasing the water distance over which wind can blow, contributing to an increase in wave height. This is exacerbated by an increase in the probability of strong winds over the widening ice-free waters.

It is currently expected that changes in Arctic sea ice will affect North Atlantic weather systems increasing extreme weather events in the UK. The UK’s weather and climate are dictated by the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere and ocean in the North Atlantic and the Arctic. Currently, major changes are occurring in the Arctic’s climate system. Arctic sea ice retreat is only one major change, with others including rising ocean and atmospheric temperatures, shifts in atmospheric circulation, and changes in the North Atlantic Ocean current and its properties. The exact implications for the UK are still uncertain. There is an ongoing project, Climate change in the Arctic-North Atlantic Region and Impacts on the UK (CANARI), which aims to advance our understanding of how changes in the Arctic will impact the UK in terms of extreme weather (https://www.ceh.ac.uk/our-science/projects/canari).

The decline in ice coverage is driving changes to ecosystems supported on, within, and beneath glaciers and ice sheets. These biodiversity hot spots of the cryosphere play a key role in regulating the release of nutrients to downstream ecosystems, and thus ecosystem viability beyond the ice sheet margin. The regulation of terrestrial, lake and coastal ocean productivity thus all rely on the viability of glacier and ice sheet ecosystems which are becoming increasingly vulnerable to decline in ice covered area. Through regulation of carbon dioxide and methane release from beneath the ice masses, and permafrost covered areas, glaciers and ice sheets also play a key role in regulating the level of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere.

Changing ice coverage and dynamics is affecting biogeochemical cycles of key nutrients in the pelagic environment of the Barents Sea and elsewhere. In turn this is affecting biological productivity as well as influencing fisheries. There is evidence of northerly migration of ‘temperate’ fish species into Arctic waters and the decline of some indigenous Arctic species.

The environmental cycling of pollutants like mercury and an array of persistent organic pollutants are changing in a warming Arctic. Many of these contaminants arise through long-range environmental transport from source regions like the UK.  In some cases transfer of these chemicals from air to water or sea ice to water is exacerbated in a changing Arctic ensuring efficient uptake of these contaminants into the base of the marine foodweb. Local sources of pollution within the Arctic are likely to increase through increased shipping, population growth/tourism and mineral acquisition activities in an ice-free Arctic.

Summary: The Arctic environment is changing rapidly, and in some critical respects doing so faster than the rest of the world. Changes in the Arctic cannot be considered in isolation as the changing climate of the region is largely driven by anthropogenic global heating, and there are resulting major impacts on climate systems beyond the region in the form of the Greenland ice sheet melt (and other Arctic terrestrial ice mass losses) contributing to rising sea levels, and changes to weather systems and storm frequency and intensity due to declining ice coverage.

The UK’s Arctic interests

Sea ice retreat is making the region more accessible but there are risks associated with this. Shipping has already increased in the Arctic Ocean. The number of ships traversing the Arctic had grown 25% between 2013 and 2019 (WWF). It is essential shipping abides by environmental regulations that protect key species, habitats and prioritise sustaining Arctic communities. Safety is also a concern in a more accessible Arctic - there has already been an increase in rescues of private yachts that lack specialist equipment needed to navigate the Arctic Ocean, particularly around Svalbard. Temporal changes in sea ice cover in regional Arctic seas accompanied, in some cases, by increases in certain commercial fish species could provide opportunities for UK fishing fleets, though changes in climate and pollutant concentrations make the distribution of fish species a matter of ongoing concern.

10.

With the ice receding, the solid rocks will be gradually exposed, and these will need to be geologically mapped for the first time. Until this mapping is done it will not be clear what type of mineral reserves are present. It is possible that ice retreat could lead to a rush to extract particular minerals. Legislation needs to be in place to control environmental degradation associated with any such mineral extraction. Environmental degradation legislation should consider the preservation of wilderness landscapes, flora, fauna, and geology.

11.

Vulnerable ecosystems are already having to deal with temperatures rising at 4 times the global average rate. Extractive industries create an additional risk. The impacts of coal dust from active mines in the Arctic are well-documented, with deposition on snow and ice surfaces leading to increased melt rates. This dust can exacerbate melting of snow and ice in both the vicinity of the mine and at distance.

12.

The Arctic is proportionally less populated than lower latitudes while also experiencing stronger trends in mean temperature. Much of this large-scale trend is driven by activities which have not taken place in the Arctic, so it is critical to consider the impact not only of local industry but of global industry on the Arctic climate and environment.

13.

Chemicals of emerging concern are increasingly observed in Arctic biota and environmental matrices like air, seawater and snow. Some of these chemicals arise through within-Arctic activities like mineral extraction and associated infrastructure such as airports, shipping and sewage disposal.

14.

Summary: There are some specific ways in which the changing Arctic contains new commercial opportunities, but observed and predicted changes are already causing damage to local ecosystems and contributing to global climate challenges (notably rising sea levels). Exploiting these new commercial opportunities is likely to result in further degradation of the Arctic environment unless strictly regulated.

The UK’s contribution to the Arctic through scientific research

15.

The UK's reputation for science is reliant on producing high-impact research in critical fields. Climate and environmental science are areas of increasing social and commercial interest, and that increase is set to continue for decades as the effects of climate change increasingly impact human society. As the Arctic is experiencing climate change impacts faster than many regions and contains the second largest global store of fresh water in the form of the Greenland ice sheet, it is a critical area to dedicate research resources to within these fields.

16.

UK scientists contribute to the scientific working groups of the Arctic Council, including, for example, the Arctic Monitoring Assessment Programme (AMAP), Pollution of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) and Conservation of Arctic Flora & Fauna (CAFF). UK scientific contributions to the ‘state of the Arctic’ reports released by these working groups is significant and sustained (often over many years) and has forged good relations/friendships with scientists, policymakers and politicians from the circumpolar nations. This should be maintained and enhanced, which necessitates continued and enhanced funding and targeted programs.

17.

Maintaining leading Arctic research programs requires long-term funding strategies. Modern environmental science involves large data volumes – particularly for satellite data, which is prevalent in polar science – which need to be maintained and which require significant computing resources to process. UK research institutions need to be able to employ people to maintain and sustain data streams, but current trends of short-term contracts with high staff turnover are not practical for providing this continuous support.

18.

More accessible funding is required to help support small scale projects that are vital for proof of concept. Many multi-million-pound schemes are difficult to access for early career researchers, or for research which promotes proof of concept. There also needs to be improved access to the NERC Arctic research Station, which is currently out of reach for many due to prohibitively high costs and limited capacity. NERC and ESRC also need to stop working in silos. There is great research being done across UK institutions on environmental sciences and separately, great research undertaken on the effects of those environmental changes for people living in the Arctic. We need a top-down approach to promote collaborations between the social and environmental sciences studying the Arctic. There is real opportunity to combine expertise in earth observation techniques with traditional, social disciplines.

19.

More funding for interdisciplinary projects can yield great results for Arctic science. Extremely large and complex datasets (which become larger and more complex as instrumentation for remote sensing improves and the number of years of continuous observations grows) make it beneficial for experts on the physical science to collaborate closely with experts in machine learning and spatial statistics to deal with this data. NERC and ESRC need to avoid working in silos; there is great research being done across UK institutions on environmental sciences and separately, great research undertaken on the effects of those environmental changes for people living in the Arctic. A top-down approach to promote collaboration between social and environmental sciences studying the Arctic can unite these areas of expertise. As changes in the Arctic climate move from prediction to reality it is critical for the physical science to interface with both technology and policymaking, to ensure the worst impacts are mitigated.

20.

Withdrawal from the EU has made bringing EU students and researchers to the UK more difficult and lessened the UK’s desirability as a research destination. International collaboration is integral to science which has a global impact, so measures are needed to ensure scientists from EU countries see studying and working in the UK as a desirable and practical prospect, and can feel secure in their ability to live and work in the UK long-term. This is true across all areas of science, but especially so for climate and environmental science with study areas spread across the globe, including in EU countries within the Arctic.

21.

Activities promoting Equality, Diversity and Inclusion (EDI) in Arctic Science should be supported by NERC. There is currently an ongoing project ran by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), funded by NERC and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) Polar Regions Department, that promotes and enhances Antarctic science opportunities to under-represented groups. This should be extended to include all polar science, or additional funding should be made available for Arctic science. Polar sciences are currently significantly behind UK population and UK STEM higher education averages for representation of women – 50.7%/45%/39% for UK population, UK STEM HE, and UK polar science (using BAS as a proxy) respectively – BAME representation – 16%/16%/3% respectively – disability representation – 19%/8%/1.8% respectively – and LGBTQ+ representation – 5%/7%/2% respectively (2017: Office of National Statistics https://www.bas.ac.uk/project/diversity-in-uk-polar-science-initiative/). The UK has an opportunity to lead on EDI activities as well as scientific endeavours.

22.

The Arctic region is pivotal to climate change and climate anxiety. Arctic science and visual representations of climate driven changes in the Arctic are often used as dissemination of climate information. According to the office of National Statistics (ONS), in October 2021 three-quarters (75%) of adults in Great Britain said they were worried about the impact of climate change and a little over two-fifths (43%) reported feeling anxious about the future of the environment more widely in the past month. Children and young people are particularly vulnerable to climate anxiety. A recent global study, which included young people from the UK, found that 59% of respondents were very or extremely worried about climate change and 84% were at least moderately worried (Hickman et al 2021). In addition, the study also found climate anxiety and distress were correlated with perceived inadequate government response and associated feelings of betrayal (Hickman et al 2021 https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00278-3). Supporting Arctic research activities helps us better understand the rapid and profound changes across the Arctic, allowing for better science communication with the public and as well as demonstrating a clear government initiative to respond.

23.

Summary: Continued and enhanced funding is a necessary component for the UK to remain competitive in Arctic science, which is an area of major international interest and relevance. The goal of this funding should be to make the process of conducting research as sustainable and flexible as possible. This includes support for increasingly demanding computing operations, ensuring that the UK is welcoming to EU researchers and maintains international collaboration, ensuring researchers from diverse backgrounds can contribute, and employing funding at a range of scales to facilitate everything in the pipeline from smaller exploratory initiatives to major projects. Enhancing our capacity for Arctic research brings a range of benefits in addition to growing scientific expertise, from remaining competitive in emerging technologies for mitigating climate risk, to informing policymakers on the best strategies to manage risks, to improved public understanding of climate reality.

The UK’s contribution to the Arctic through diplomacy and military support

24.

Presence and influence as a promoter of environmental protection is something which needs to be consistent across all scales of action to be credible. The global impact of fossil fuel burning and highly interconnected nature of the environmental impacts of human activity mean that it is not only policy which directly relates to the Artic which will contribute to the protection or endangerment of its environment. For the UK to lead on environmental protection activities within the Arctic, it will also need to lead on managing the climate impact of the nation as a whole, including on energy and industrial emissions.

April 2023