Plymouth Marine Laboratory                            ARC0015

Written evidence submitted by Plymouth Marine Laboratory

 

Preface

This response has been coordinated by Dr Helen Findlay, a biological oceanographer, on behalf of Plymouth Marine Laboratory.

A world leader in the field of marine research, Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) is committed to the delivery of impactful, cutting-edge environmental and social science in support of a healthy and sustainable ocean. Through our science we contribute to achieving targets and aspirations set out in national and international directives and goals for a sustainable future, including the UK Government’s 25-year plan to improve the environment. PML is deeply committed to equipping UK policymakers with excellent scientific evidence, with the view to ensuring UK policy is capable of anticipating and responding to the rapidly evolving challenges and threats posed by the climate emergency.

Response

1. The Arctic environment

What are the consequences for the UK of the observed climatic and environmental changes in the Arctic?

The observed changes in the Arctic can have a number of important consequences for the UK, which are far-reaching and therefore need to be addressed by strong and immediate actions. Some of the consequences include:

  1. Melting of Greenland’s ice sheets together with loss of glacial ice will cause sea levels to rise globally, which will affect coastal communities in the UK. Even if the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to below 2 °C is met, there is significant risk of flooding and enhanced storm surges in low-lying areas across the UK, resulting in damage to property and infrastructure.
  2. The Arctic plays a crucial role in global weather patterns, and hence changes in the Arctic can lead to changes in weather patterns across the world. These changes include more extreme weather events such as heatwaves, storms and flooding in the UK.
  3. Climate change is affecting the habitats of Arctic wildlife, with some Arctic-endemic species possibly facing extinctions. Many species are shifting, and will continue to shift, their distributions northwards as warming continues. This can cause disruption to the food web. In the marine system, there are still several unknowns about how complex multi-factor changes occurring in the Arctic will impact the ability of species to shift northwards, for example ocean acidification is occurring more rapidly in Arctic waters and this could prevent or slow the spread of species north. Ultimately these changes could affect the UK’s fishing and tourist industries that have interest in both the fisheries and ecosystem state more broadly.
  4. Melting Arctic sea ice is opening up new shipping routes, which has economic implications for the UK.
  5. As the Arctic becomes more accessible, there could be political implications for the UK if countries with an interest in the region become more assertive in their claims to Arctic resources.

 

What are the observable realities of ice decline for biodiversity, air quality, sea level changes, permafrost melt and levels of methane?

The observable realities of ice decline have significant impacts on the environment, which needs to be addressed by immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Earth-System models currently predict high rates of warming for the arctic. The possible implications this has for higher trophic levels and for the long-term storage of carbon are currently uncertain, necessitating further study.

  1. The melting Arctic sea ice has led to the loss of habitat for a range of species across the whole food web, from the primary producers (sea ice algae), through to fish (polar cod juvenile habitats), through to top predators like seals, walruses and polar bears. These shifts change the food web structure, resulting, for example, in loss of food availability for some species and increased competition for resources for others. Ultimately these changes can lead to a decline in Arctic populations as well as cause a restructuring of the food web.
  2. Melting sea ice and land ice in the Arctic has affected the ocean’s ability to take up carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, as well as buffer the changes in ocean chemistry from the uptake of carbon dioxide. Ocean acidification is occurring most rapidly in the Arctic because of increased meltwater and loss of sea ice. These additional factors (freshening, acidification), are compounding the declines in biodiversity observed from Arctic sea ice loss alone.
  3. Melting ice is enabling more active air-sea gas exchange, by, for instance, providing more exposed sea surface. This has likely led to an increased emission of DMS (dimethyl sulphide) over the Arctic, for example. Increased sea surface area may also enable more outgassing of other ocean derived VOCs (volatile organic compounds) as well as uptake of atmospheric pollutants. While enhanced ship emissions due to melting ice are anticipated (with deposition of black carbon over ice being thought to be a key issue), so far the actual increase in ship traffic has been minimal.
  4. From an air quality/climate perspective, changes in the arctic may be leading to changes in mid-latitude weather patterns and circulations.

2. The UK’s Arctic interests

What use do UK businesses (oil, minerals, fisheries, tourism, shipping) make of the Arctic as a whole, and how may that use develop in coming years, especially as the ice recedes?

N/A

What are the risks to the climate and the environment of current business trends, especially extractive industries, in the Arctic?

The risks to the climate and environment from industry in the Arctic, especially extractive industries, is significant, as many of them, including oil and gas exploration and mining, contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and habitat destruction. Industries must work with governments and regulators to ensure a sustainable business approach is employed and that adequate policies are in place to protect the Arctic region.

The production and consumption of fossil fuels from the Arctic region can release significant amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. There is no room for new fossil fuel extraction anywhere, let alone in the Arctic, if we are to stick to the Paris Agreement. In order to achieve the UK’s commitment to net zero, but also continue to lead the transition to clean energy sources there must be no extraction of fossil fuels.

Extraction industries can directly lead to the destruction of habitat resulting in loss of biodiversity and local species extinctions. The construction of infrastructure also necessary for increased industry in the Arctic can cause habitat destruction, fragmentation, and disrupt migration patterns.

Industry can increase the risk of release of other pollutants, oil spills and mining waste. All industries are likely to result in the risk of enhanced pollution release, including the shipping and tourist industries that could result in increased ship emissions and release of ship disposals into the fragile Arctic Ocean. Oil spills can have devastating consequences on marine life and seabirds, and the recent evidence that oil platforms release substantial amounts of oil in the North Sea suggests oil platforms in the Arctic could also result in increased pollution there. Mining waste can contain metals that are toxic, these can be difficult to manage and contain.

What is the UK’s military interest in the Arctic and what effect might that have on the environment?

N/A

3. The UK’s contribution to the Arctic through scientific research

What are the benefits for the UK of support for Arctic research activity?

By supporting Arctic research, the UK gains a better understanding of the impacts of climate change and the consequences of change on the UK and the rest of the world. The UK positions itself as a leader in research areas such as sea ice loss and impacts on biodiversity, but also in areas such as renewable energy, sustainable tourism and ecosystem management. Arctic research can provide opportunities for innovation and development of new technologies that can be applied globally. The UK also benefits from strengthened international collaborations and relationships with other Arctic nations, both scientifically but this also has political benefits. Arctic research can help the UK inform policy decisions and develop evidence-based approaches to address the challenges being faced in the region and globally.

What more could the UK do to improve or increase its contribution to Arctic science?

The UK could provide continued support for the Arctic Office and the UK NERC Arctic Station, including resources for personnel as the administration burden of running the office increases. Provide collaborative funding support for the UK to work with European, US and Canadian partners to conduct interdisciplinary, trans-arctic research. Enhance education and training to build human capacity and resources, including developing training courses and programmes. The UK should improve its contribution to Arctic science by engaging with Arctic Indigenous communities and incorporating local knowledge into research, expanding the UKs socio-economic science to understand values, needs, and how best to facilitate change within communities.

How do the findings of scientific research into the Arctic’s climate and environment inform the UK’s Arctic policy?

Scientific research can play a crucial role in informing the UK's Arctic policy by identifying key scientific challenges, by developing evidence-based policies, by supporting international cooperation, and by informing the public. The UK can develop policies that are effective, informed and response to the needs of the Arctic regions by relying on the latest scientific knowledge.

What are the implications for UK Arctic research of the UK Government’s new Arctic policy framework?

The UK Government’s new Arctic policy framework has several implications for UK Arctic research, including:

  1. Increased focus on sustainability, suggesting balancing economic development with environmental protection, which means UK research can increasingly focus on issues relating to sustainable development, such as renewable energy, the environmental impacts of renewable technology as well as carbon removal technologies, fisheries and marine spatial planning.
  2. The new policy emphasises the importance of collaboration with Arctic nations and Indigenous communities. The UK should therefore ensure complete involvement of these communities in Arctic research through investment in collaboration and joint funding opportunities.
  3. Continued and enhanced climate change research should be a priority for UK Arctic research based on the recognised importance of climate change in the new Arctic policy framework. This should include co-designed research on the changes as well as potential impacts and possible adaptation strategies.

How can future Arctic research in UK institutions be supported so as to maintain and enhance the UK’s leadership in Arctic science?

UK institutions can be supported most importantly by increased funding, investing both in scientific research but also in infrastructure and education and training, including training for the next generation of Arctic researchers. There should also be support for increasing opportunities for collaboration, interdisciplinary research including integrating with policy and economics.

What factors govern the commissioning of Arctic research programmes in UK scientific institutions, and to what extent are the outputs of such programmes used in contributions to multilateral scientific assessments such as the IPCC?

Scientific priorities, policy objectives and funding availability are the three factors that most govern the commissioning of Arctic research programmes in the UK. The outputs of Arctic research programmes have resulted in inclusion in the IPCC Special Report on the Oceans and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, as well as the Assessment Reports. They have also been incorporated into policy events such as those coordinated by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI) and its High Urgency Group. This group includes several researchers based in the UK and takes the latest scientific knowledge to provide annual updates on the status of the cryosphere and polar oceans, as well as organising policy briefing events and publishing in high impact scientific journals.

What research activities concerning the climate and environment ought to be eligible for UK support through the NERC?

Eligible research activities could include:

Has the UK’s departure from the EU had an impact on UK research in the Arctic? Has there been any impact on agreements on international cooperation, joint research projects and access to funding streams such as Horizon Europe?

Brexit has resulted in a disruption to funding availability in the EU as well as international cooperation and joint projects, despite the UK governments pledge to support participation. The UK now has less ability to influence the funding streams and the programmes development. There are still unknowns as to how the relationship between the UK and other EU and Arctic nations will continue, as the UK may have less ability to influence agreements on international cooperation.

What impact has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had on Arctic scientific cooperation? Has the conflict had an impact on UK research capacity in the Arctic?

The conflict had minimal impact on capacity to conduct research in much of the Arctic however up until the Ukraine conflict, the UK was building its relationship with Russia and there had been some useful and helpful initiatives including bi-lateral research agendas, UK fellowship awards and schemes for early career researcher development between Russia and the UK. These have been unable to proceed which has had a detrimental impact on UK research through loss of capacity development and building as well as collaboration and trust for sharing knowledge and data with more senior scientists. As individuals, there are ways to continue collaborations on scientific papers, but even this has been hampered as some journals have put restrictions on Russian co-authorship. More broadly, the conflict has resulted in resources being drawn away from research. While scientific collaboration and connection can improve relationships and promote peaceful dialogue and interactions.

What impact has the effective suspension of the Arctic Council had on environmental science and environmental protection?

The primary impact of the effective suspension of the Arctic Council has been the delay in adoption of new policies and initiatives, which in turn prevents coordination among Arctic nations on environmental matters. The lack of coordinated effort by the Arctic Council means that any policies or initiatives that are created at national level may be limited in their ability to be effective, especially across the whole of the Arctic region. Environmental science has continued via the existing relationships and collaboration that continue under the Arctic Council, even though the Arctic Council is not operating as normal.

What role is there for the UK to assist in Arctic scientific co-operation while the Arctic Council is in abeyance?

The UK could pursue scientific agreements with individual Arctic nations to allow data sharing, joint projects, and exchange programme, such as the recent UK-Canada funding.  The UK has a unique opportunity to use its Science and Innovation Network (SIN), which could be used to facilitate scientific cooperation across the Arctic nations. Additionally, the UK could further its support to organisations that are outside of the Arctic Council, such as the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) and the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative (ICCI). Support to these organisations could allow further coordination and cooperation of science between Arctic nations. Engagement and support for organisations such as the Association for Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS) could also provide a route to facilitating capacity building, education and training.

4. The UK’s contribution to the Arctic through diplomacy and military support

What role does the UK have in international circles which support the stability of the Arctic environment: diplomacy, the law and insurance, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the International Maritime Organization?

N/A

What role could the UK play in reviving or replacing the Arctic Council?

As a leader in scientific research in the Arctic, as well as with a wealth of experience of coordinating and facilitating programmes across a wide range of countries, the UK could play a strong role in bringing nations together to work on reviving or replacing the Arctic Council. For example, utilising the UKs Science and Innovation Network, could be a first step in bringing together nations to re-organise and re-prioritise.

How can the UK increase its visible presence and influence in the Arctic in support of activities which protect the Arctic environment?

To increase the UKs visible presence and influence in the Arctic it should support and increase scientific research, international cooperation, promote sustainable industries and green growth technologies, funding research into innovation and adaptation, work with Arctic nations and Indigenous communities and increase public awareness.

 

April 2023