Dr Fred Richards, Dr Adriana Ford, and Mr James Heyburn              ARC0008

Written evidence submitted by Dr Fred Richards, Dr Adriana Ford, and Mr James Heyburn

Explanatory note:  

This response has been developed by Imperial colleagues from across the College’s expertise.  
 
In this submission, the full names of contributing researchers will appear at the beginning of their first answer and any subsequent answers will begin with their initials. A full list of contributors is included at the foot of the document.  

The Arctic environment

1(a): What are the consequences for the UK of the observed climatic and environmental changes in the Arctic?

1.1

Dr Fred Richards (FR): The UK’s weather systems are strongly influenced by atmospheric conditions in the Arctic. For example, high pressure over the Nordic Seas can divert damaging storms across the UK. These storms can be highly disruptive: the ‘Beast from the East’ (2018) caused sub-zero temperatures across the UK, over a billion pounds of damage, the direct loss of 10 lives, and many more indirect deaths due to cold homes. Severe flooding can also be triggered by these events, with total damage from Storms Ciara and Dennis (2020) estimated to have cost the insurance industry ~£425 million. There is some evidence that ongoing Arctic warming may increase the frequency and severity of major UK storms; however, the physical processes that might connect extreme UK weather to Arctic conditions are not yet fully understood or agreed upon.

1.2

Dr Adriana Ford (AF): As climate changes, we are seeing changes to the fire regimes in the Arctic - longer fires season (with increasing likelihood of extreme fire weather) and more frequent and more intense fires[1]. Wildfires, particularly the smouldering, underground peat fires typical in the Arctic, cause extensive air pollution, emitting very large amounts of carbon. In 2020, it was estimated that wildfires in Arctic Siberia emitted a total of 58 million tonnes of carbon, a record value since records began in 2003[2]. These emissions, especially from organic soils that have sequestered carbon over millennia, could accelerate global climate change with indirect impact on the UK. 

1(b): What are the observable realities of ice decline for biodiversity, air quality, sea level changes, permafrost melt and levels of methane?

1.3

FR: Counterintuitively, declines in Arctic land ice are expected to have minimal impact on UK sea level in the near future because, when an ice sheet loses mass, its gravitational attraction on the adjacent ocean diminishes, causing ocean water to migrate away. Around the UK, the southward redistribution of ocean mass arising from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet locally counteracts the impact of increased total ocean volume, resulting in limited sea-level rise. This predicted spatial trend has recently been detected and verified using satellite datasets. Note, however, that this gravitational effect acts in the opposite direction for Antarctic ice loss and that, when all other sources of sea-level rise are accounted for (including thermal expansion of oceans and melting of mountain glaciers), the net result is that sea-level rise is accelerating across the UK (current rates are ~3-5.2 mm/year, approximately double the average rate in the early 20th century).

1.4

AF: Thawing permafrost can increase the vulnerability of soil to wildfires, exposing carbon rich peat which is more prone to igniting[3]. Arctic wildfires can also accelerate the problem of permafrost degradation and thawing, through direct combustion of the top layer soils and vegetation exposing permafrost underneath, and indirectly through changing surface albedo through deposition of black and brown carbon in smoke, which can increase absorption of solar radiation, and further accelerating thawing.

The UK’s contribution to the Arctic through scientific research

3(b): What more could the UK do to improve or increase its contribution to Arctic science?

3.1

AF: Remoteness in the Arctic creates research challenges which contribute to fragmented, patchy data and significant knowledge gaps. For example, there is a need for significant further research on fire-climate-vegetation interactions and fire dynamics, wildfire risk and adaptation, and wildfire health impacts and inequalities in the Arctic. UK science, in collaboration with local experts and communities in the Arctic who have knowledge and access to remote areas, can contribute to coordinated, co-produced and interdisciplinary research to help better understand the Arctic environment, including socio-ecological systems. UK science can further add to new and existing monitoring networks ranging from ground-based through to modelling and remote sensing, such as the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme. An inclusive UK network for Arctic research could help identify synergies, support resource sharing, and facilitate a coordinated effort to improve the UK’s contribution to Arctic science.

Contributors: 

FR: Dr Fred Richards
Lecturer, Department of Earth Science and Engineering

AF: Dr Adriana Ford
Centre Manager, Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society, Department of Life Sciences

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Further information: 

This submission was collated by the Imperial Policy Forum, working in partnership with Imperial College London’s Department of Earth Science and Engineering and Leverhulme Centre in the Department of Life Sciences.

The Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society is a ten-year multidisciplinary research centre involving Imperial College, King’s College, Royal Holloway and Reading Universities. The Centre works to enable society to understand, predict and manage wildfires more effectively. The Centre has particular expertise in the measurement of peat combustión and earth observation of fires.

The IPF team supports the policy engagement work of Imperial College London researchers. For follow-up correspondence with the submission contributors, or to discuss other ways in which the facilities and expertise of Imperial researchers can support the Committee’s work, please contact James Heyburn, Policy and Engagement Officer, Imperial Policy Forum.

April 2023