Dr David K A Barnes                            ARC0005

Written evidence submitted by Dr David K A Barnes, Marine Ecologist at the British Antarctic Survey

1. The Arctic environment

• What are the consequences for the UK of the observed climatic and environmental changes in the Arctic?

Sea level rise: Loss of Arctic (mainly Greenland) land-based ice is a main direct driver of sea level rise. Massive sustained losses of Arctic seas ice indirectly also increase sea level, because they change albedo (reflectivity). Open water is dark blue, which absorbs a lot of heat, and thermal expansion can account for up to a third of sea level rise.  Mean sea level rise is about 3.2mm per year but this is likely to increase, thus it is important for UK’s adaptation to climate change to plan using sea level rise (modelled) projections for example with consideration of coastal flood defence and future coastally sited infrastructure projects and industry.

Weather: Increases in evaporation, precipitation and freshening are expected around the Arctic and these have varied but important impacts on Europe including the UK. Freshening can result in stratification and less sinking of Arctic water leading to weakening of the Gulf Stream which in turn can typically result in more extreme and cooler winter conditions. Heatwaves, droughts and storm intensity are likely to become more common and intense so water resource planning in water-stressed areas will be important, however, model recreation of data to date is still not strong, thus uncertainty remains high.  

• What are the observable realities of ice decline for biodiversity?

Sea ice losses will have profound implications for pagophilic species (those using sea ice as a habitat), most iconically Polar bears and Harp seals. Losses in area and time of ice-associated micro-algae (such as diatoms) will have considerable ramifications to the foodweb of which they are the base. High Arctic species have few options for migration and will face both a shrinking ‘environmental envelope’ of space to live in but also increased competition and predation from lower latitude species shifting their ranges polewards. Increasing Atlantification can already be seen in the Barents Sea. However, marine ice losses over the continental shelf may also lead to emergent blue carbon habitats (such as fjords where glaciers retreat) with some mitigating feedbacks on climate change. Sea ice losses also give potential for macr-algae to extend along polar coasts and for blooms of open water algae to last longer. If the seabed under such new or increased productivity is protected from disturbance there are likely to be some areas of increased productivity and carbon sequestration so targeted environment protection could not only help meet the new 30 by 30 agreement but also climate change limitation goals.       

3. The UK’s contribution to the Arctic through scientific research

• What are the benefits for the UK of support for Arctic research activity?

Losses of marine (and land-based) ice are increasingly opening up the Arctic to a wider range of activities and interest. The UK through a NERC station on Svalbard, a new polar research ship and strong partnerships with most Arctic nations is a key player in Arctic science. This gives the UK a stake at the forefront of knowledge and understanding advances, enabling us to better plan for considerable and complex climate change which will strongly impact the UK. Being embedded across most if not all Arctic science disciplines allows the UK to be involved in shaping science direction, activity and interpretation and thus have a real voice there.   

• What more could the UK do to improve or increase its contribution to Arctic science?
• How can future Arctic research in UK institutions be supported so as to maintain and enhance the UK’s leadership in Arctic science?
• What research activities concerning the climate and environment ought to be eligible for UK support through the NERC?

In answer to the above three questions: I think that we should increase emphasis on identification and science underpinning of protection designation of Arctic carbon sinks. The Arctic is likely to be a global hotspot in emergent habitats that punch well above their weight in terms of both climate change mitigation and biodiversity. We have made little inroads into this subject area, whilst focussing on less efficient and more expensive tech fixes and large scale tree planting. The climate crisis and that of biodiversity loss are very clearly intertwined, and we have signed up to action on both, so we need to push hard now to do this synergistically and holistically – the Arctic would be a very good place to start. 

• Has the UK’s departure from the EU had an impact on UK research in the Arctic? Has there been any impact on agreements on international cooperation, joint research projects and access to funding streams such as Horizon Europe?

Yes, we can be (and are) involved in EU grant applications and projects but it has become a barrier to leading them. Thus UK scientists inevitably have started to have more of a ‘sideline’ role and less voice to shape science direction and action. EU projects have the potential to do much more than bring together the best European ideas and science talent but also provides an easier and stronger path for dissemination and outreach of findings and conclusions across our closest market. 

• What impact has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had on Arctic scientific cooperation? Has the conflict had an impact on UK research capacity in the Arctic?

This has distanced the scientific community from a major past and potential partner, source of expertise and more than a third of the geographic Antarctic. This is particularly apparent in the Barents Sea which is used, harvested and scientifically studied by Atlantic nations (inc UK) and Russia separately to mutual disadvantage.

March 2023