TTR0006

Written evidence submitted by Prof. John Howson, Chair, TeachVac and visiting professor at Oxford Brookes University

Introduction

This is the Sixth time I have presented evidence to a House of Commons Education Select Committee investigating issues around the supply of teachers.

My first written evidence was submitted in 1989 to the inquiry into ‘The supply of Teachers for the 1990s(Volume 2 Evidence, pages 246-247)

In 1996, I both submitted evidence, and was called as a witness, as I was again in 1997, when the new government conducted a further inquiry. There was a further inquiry and report in 2003, and another in 2015, when I submitted evidence on behalf of TeachVac, and was also called as a witness.

I have also provided evidence into inquiries around the role of headteachers and the preparation and training of teachers.

All the inquiries were instigated during periods of problems with teacher supply, although by the time the 2003 inquiry reported there had been a marked change in the situation, and teacher shortages were no longer as much of an issue as when the inquiry commenced.

The need for definitions

In my evidence to the 2015 Inquiry, I presented the following possible benchmarks for discussion.

Crisis or Challenge?

There is no current definition of when a shortage of teachers or trainees might be described as either a challenge or a crisis. This lack of any benchmark has allowed for language to be used in a casual manner. In an attempt to place some clarity into the debate, some suggested definitions are offered for both recruitment into teacher preparation programmes and for recruitment into main scale teaching positions for classroom teachers.

Entry into training

A challenge to the system might be described as a situation where more than 60% of applicants are offered places on preparation courses because this provides little competition to enter the profession. A lack of competition means there is no incentive to create minimum benchmarks for entry in areas such as extent of subject knowledge or experience beyond schooling and university education.

A crisis might arise when despite offering more than 60% of applicants places on teacher preparation courses there are still insufficient applicants to provide enough people to fill all the places on offer over a two-year period. This avoids issues over a shortfall in one year due to unforeseen events.

Entry level vacancies

There are no current descriptors for how to measure either a challenge or a crisis in recruitment at the level of entry grade employment in teaching.

A challenge might be described as a situation where there are sufficient entrants to teaching from all sources, but they are not distributed according to need across the country, meaning some schools are forced to employ candidates without the skills required to fully undertake the role for which they have been recruited. This could be the consequence of a shortfall in entry into training, if there are insufficient other teachers available to make up that shortfall.

For this challenge to become a crisis there would need to be insufficient entrants to the profession from all routes to reduce the percentage of teachers with no relevant post ‘A’ level qualification teaching the subject in a secondary school, or no training in the phase of primary education they are teaching over a two year period. The crisis could be limited to specific parts of the curriculum.

However, another way to consider the issue is to look at three areas of teacher supply which where the terms crisis or challenge may be used.

There needs to be enough teachers – crisis of numbers,

they need to be in the right place – crisis of location and

they need to be good enough – crisis of quality.

The issue of numbers can be further sub-divided into numbers in training and numbers in the profession, as already discussed. A shortfall in training numbers will create a shortage in the profession that can become compounded if the problem lasts for several years.

The present situation

The teacher labour market in England for September 2023 is proving exceptionally challenging for secondary schools, even by the standards of past periods of teacher shortages. This statement is based upon the analysis of real-time data collected by TeachVac, the recruitment platform I founded some nine years ago and using data compiled in early March 2023.

Some years ago, following a report from the National Audit Office, and comments from the Public Accounts Committee following the publication of an NAO Report, the DfE created, and still operates, its own job board, and can thus verify the accuracy of TeachVac’s data around vacancies in the publicly funded school sector. Whether the DfE is the best body to operate a vacancy site is a matter of opinion. It has chosen a different path with the provision of curriculum materials by funding The Oak Academy rather than operating its own service.

TeachVac collects data from both the state schools’ sector and the independent school sector in order to understand the totality of the labour market for teachers. The DfE site only handles vacancies from state-funded schools that have been input into their site by the school or academy trust. TeachVac actively collects data about vacancies from school and academy trust web sites requiring no action on the part of the school.

The tes is the other major source of vacancy advertising.

Schools also use recruitment agencies and other platforms for recruitment creating an annual spend of many millions of pounds that could be better spent directly on the education of pupils.

The following two charts for the primary and secondary sectors reveal the number of vacancies recorded on a month-by-month basis by TeachVac during the past six years.

 

 

 

 

 

Analysis of vacancies advertised against trainee numbers from the 1st January 2015 to 6th March 2023

Source: TeachVac

Source: TeachVac

Charts for individual regions and secondary subjects are available on request.

Vacancies for classroom teachers in the primary sector have remained subdued in line with the fall in the school population in that sector.

In the secondary sector, 2023 has commenced with record vacancy numbers being recorded in both January and February. Measured against the reduced numbers emerging from teacher preparation courses in 2023 this must be a matter for serious concern, unless it is due to schools bringing vacancies forward from the normal recruitment period of March to May.

The 2023 recruitment round

By the time the call for evidence has closed the main period of recruitment of teachers for September 2023 will be well on the way to completion. TeachVac will be able to supply more up to date data at that point in time.

In order to monitor the labour market on a daily basis, TeachVac has created an index that maps recorded vacancies against the potential number of new entrants into secondary school teaching from ITT. New entrants from a significant proportion of those filling classroom teacher vacancies each year according to the DfE.

The index works as follows: The ITT number is taken from the Annual DfE ITT Census with numbers on salaried classroom-based scheme such as School Direct Salaried and the High Achievers Programme (Teach First) removed fro the total as these trainees are already in a classroom. A 5% deflator is then applied to the residual number to allow for non-completion and teaching outside of state schools. In reality, this produces a possible over-estimate of new entrants available for September 2023 because it does not take fully into account those entering the independent school sector or working in a Sixth Form College. However, it has the advantage of being used for several years on the same methodology.

The recorded position on the 23rd March 2023 is shown in the following table

Group

ITT

Number left

% left

Art

440

213

48.41

Science

1505

-122

-8.11

English

1214

18

1.52

Mathematics

1467

145

9.92

Languages

652

-64

-9.82

IT

304

-191

-62.99

Design & Technology

372

-316

-84.95

Business

164

-181

-110.37

RE

249

-67

-26.91

PE

1295

908

70.12

Primary

12000

9452

78.77

Music

228

-5

-2.19

Geography

523

46

8.89

History

950

671

70.68

 

 

Compare these percentages with those on 4th March 2022

Group

ITT

Number left

% left

Art

717

588

82.01

Science

2049

1085

52.98

English

1667

1025

61.49

Mathematics

2048

457

60.13

Languages

835

457

54.79

IT

475

200

42.11

Design & Technology

260

-118

-45.58

Business

241

14

5.81

RE

359

197

54.87

PE

1475

1263

85.66

Music

315

193

61.43

Geography

443

200

45.15

History

1271

1095

86.15

 

In March 2023, only physical education, history and possible art are considered subjects likely to provide sufficient teachers to meet demand across England for September 2023 and January 2024. In March 2023, nine subjects were classified as ‘red’ based upon the number of vacancies already recorded in 2023. A ‘Red’ rating means that schools anywhere in England might struggle to recruit for September 2023, and any vacancies for January 2024 would be extremely challenging for a school to fill. This was a worse position than in March 2022.

As the majority of science vacancies are advertised by state-funded schools as requiring ‘a teacher of science’ it is not possible to comment about vacancies in specific science subjects.

No doubt the ITT situation in Languages and for physics in 2023 goes some way to explain the DfE’s announcement of a scheme to attract trainees and teachers in these subjects from overseas with a payment up to £10,000 for a year of study or employment.

Some schools have not been affected by the challenging labour market because they do not need to recruit teachers, often because they will have Teach First or School Direct Salaried trainees working in their classrooms in September 2023.  Other schools with trainees on teacher preparation programmes in the spring of 2023 may be able to recruit those trainees without the need to enter the open market.

However, schools without trainees, but with vacancies, will need to compete for the limited number of new entrants or seek either returners to teaching or persuade teachers to join their school from another school.

 

Dilemmas

The present labour market for teachers has a number of factors that prevent it working effectively as a market. New entrants can broadly be put into one of two categories; either new graduates or career switchers. The former group are usually younger, and may have fewer ties to the area where they train; the latter may have a stake in a local community, especially if they are in their thirties and forties when they enter teaching. At present, there is no mechanism to ensure teachers that are restricted in their travel to work area can find work in that area unless they join one of the salaried schemes. This can produce an imbalance between supply and demand. This is especially the case if the distribution of training places is aligned more with the quality of the provider than the demand for teachers in the area.

Recommendation for the Committee to consider: Ensure a supply of teacher preparation places at an appropriate level for the needs of each region.

Recommendation for the Committee to consider: DfE should identify areas where recruitment falls short of need ahead of each recruitment round for September.

At present, trainee teachers are treated differently according to their route through training. Some receive a salary; other pay fees for essentially the same experience. This is unfair and makes marketing the profession more challenging. Teaching should be brought into line with other public and private sector training schemes. Trainee teachers should not be treated less well financially than other public servants such as trainee army, navy or air force officers.

Recommendation for the Committee to consider: All graduate trainees should be treated in the same way in terms of finances, as they are all being prepared for the same role even if they are teaching different subjects or phases of education.

Recommendation for the Committee to consider: The operation of the ‘open market’ appointment system for new teachers should be reviewed against the working of schemes such as Teach First and School Direct Salaried programme to compare the costs and benefits of each approach to training and entry to employment.

The consequences of a period of teacher shortages

Assuming that the DfE’s Teacher Supply Model used to calculate the number of ITT places required starts afresh each year when calculating ITT places needed, this means that no account is taken of a failure to fill ITT places in a pervious ITT round. This is a sensible approach because schools start each new year in September ‘fully staffed’ against their timetable even if some of the staff are not fully qualified in the subjects that they are teaching. However, it can mask a period of under-recruitment in specific subjects that continues for a number of years.

At present, teachers are granted certification that allows them to teach any subject to any pupil at any level. This approach helps masks the severity of any shortfall in teacher numbers in some subjects in some schools, and makes the ‘levelling up’ agenda more of a challenge to support. The DfE provides data about the system in the School Workforce Data, but it is difficult for parents to know whether or not those teaching their children are fully qualified in the subjects that they are teaching.

Where schools cannot recruit a ‘qualified teacher’ they may appoint someone without any certification. These are termed as an ‘unqualified teacher’. Previously they used to be known as ‘instructors’ to differentiate them from qualified teachers. As the term ‘teacher’ is not a reserved occupation term unlike many other professional qualifications, anyone may be called a ‘teacher’.

Recommendation for the Committee to consider: QTS should be awarded only for the subject and phase of initial teacher training undertaken. Teachers should be able to obtain emergency certification to teach other subjects or phases, but such emergency certification should be accompanied by a plan of professional development leading to full certification for the teacher within two years.

Recommendation for the Committee to consider: The title ‘teacher’ should be a reserved occupation term and only available to those with an appropriate level of certification.

Teaching and the wider labour market for graduates

The working of the labour market for teachers, both for entry into training for employment at different levels from classroom teacher to school leader cannot be divorced from the wider labour market for graduates. Teaching traditionally recruits well when there are perceived to be fewer other opportunities for graduates, and especially female graduates, since teaching has become an overwhelmingly female profession at the entry grade level. This is especially challenging for the labour market in subjects where there is a gender imbalance in favour of men on higher education degree courses.

The following table charts the decline in applications to train as a secondary school teacher on routes other than Teach First.

Cumulative applications (not applicants) to train as a secondary school teacher in England by month

Secondary

 

 

 

 

 

 

Applications for Secondary Courses

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

2015

42990

48380

53210

57480

62910

66020

68910

2016

43820

48570

53600

59220

63710

66700

69110

2017

40440

45280

50040

55710

60680

64760

66720

2018

33940

39220

46660

52530

58830

64150

66340

2019

34600

40560

47270

53250

59440

64890

67400

2020

35940

43270

51030

59470

71060

77330

81240

2021

43910

51090

55980

61480

65990

69170

71850

2022

32551

37304

41911

48047

53532

58253

60756

Source: UCAS and DfE

The significant boost in applications after the start of the covid lockdown in 2020 was short-lived and, as it became clear that the government’s furlough scheme would prevent large-scale unemployment in the graduate labour market, applications again slowed, and by 2022 were once again on a downward path that has continued for applicants domiciled in England in 2023.

Regional trends

TeachVac measures vacancies per school by region. This is a crude measure as it takes no account of the size of schools that may be smaller in some parts of England than in other parts. The following table shows the regional vacancy per secondary school recorded in 2022.

2022

Vacancy/school

London

14.1

South East

15.2

East of England

11.9

East Midlands

9.5

South West

11.7

West Midlands

10.4

Yorkshire & the Humber

11.3

North West

9.4

North East

7.3

Source: TeachVac

Schools in London and the South East recorded vacancy rates double that for schools across the North East. Some of the difference will a result of turnover rates and some will be a result of the need to re-advertise a vacancy not filled at first advertisement.

Recommendation for the Committee to consider: the application of a unique job number to each vacancy would make the tracking of vacancies easier and provide better quality data on the working of the labour market for teachers.

Do some schools find recruitment more of a challenge than others?

In July 2022, TeachVac conducted a review of vacancies across a group of schools to compare vacancy rates against the level of Free School Meals in a School

The question posed was: Do schools with high percentages of pupils eligible for Free School Meals have higher staff turnover than schools with lower percentages of pupils on Free School Meals?

One of the advantages of TeachVac and the data it collects is that it allows questions such as that to be answered in ‘real time’. As the recruitment round for September is was in effect over by July 2022, with the start of the summer holidays, it was an appropriate time to ask that question for the 2022 Labour Market.

Prof john Howson previously considered this question in 2021 in his blog Free School Meals and staff turnover | John Howson (wordpress.com) at the end of May 2021.

In 2022, TeachVac looked at the data for secondary school vacancies from one ‘shire’ county for vacancies recorded by TeachVac between 1st January 2022 and 22nd July 2022, effectively the end of the summer term.

 

The secondary schools in the selected authority, mostly academies, were split into three groups: those with a Free School Meal (FSM) percentage of pupils up to 10% of roll; those with FSM between 10-20% of their roll and those with FSM over 20% of their pupils as reported by the DfE.

 

 

FSM percentage

Number of Schools

Recorded vacancies

Vacancies per school

0-9.9%

18

359

20.0

10-20%

14

387

27.6

20%+

  6

281

46.0

 Source TeachVac

 

The table doesn’t take into account school size, nor the additional demands of new schools increasing their staffing as pupil numbers increase. Even allowing for these factors, the trend seems clear. Schools with more pupils on Free School Meals as a percentage of all pupils in this local authority during 2022 tended to create more vacancies per school than schools with lower Free School Meal pupils. The DfE doesn’t have a consistent reporting point for FSM percentages, and schools may update their percentage during the school-year.

Also, some secondary schools may be better than others at persuading families to register pupils eligible for Free School Meals, and some schools, such as faith schools, may be more popular with particular types of parents. There might also be a gender effect, as there are both single sex schools and co-educational school with in the authority.

The difference between 16 and 11-18 schools is not an issue in this authority, as most schools are 11-18 schools. However, there are some very large schools, although they do not fall within the highest FSM band. At least one school was constrained to some extent by pupil numbers and budgetary considerations from making appointments, and their vacancy number might be considered low. However, as that school was in the highest FSM band, it might have increased the number for the schools in that band even more if it had needed and been able to recruit more teachers.

This data is based on classroom teacher vacancies. In August 2022, TeachVac conducted some research into the turnover of headteachers by the percentage of pupils on Free School Meals.

The findings were

The data by regions for the period of adverts from 1st January 2022 until August 2022 is in the table below

1st JAN TO 19th AUGUST 2022

0-9.9% on FSM

10-19.9% on FSM

20%+ on FSM

 

East Midlands

29%

32%

39%

100%

East of England

28%

40%

32%

100%

London

21%

30%

50%

100%

North East

21%

25%

54%

100%

North West

30%

27%

43%

100%

South East

40%

32%

28%

100%

South West

24%

43%

34%

100%

West Midlands

24%

30%

46%

100%

Yorkshire & Humber

24%

27%

49%

100%

AVERAGE

27%

32%

42%

100%

Source: TeachVac

This is a crude piece of analysis, as it just takes the school and places it in one of three bands for Free School Meals percentage at the school, as recorded by the DfE. The table also includes both primary and secondary schools, and also does not distinguish between schools that have only advertised once and those that have advertised more than once.

Urban areas, not surprisingly, have the highest percentages of schools in the 20% plus grouping, with London having 50% of advertised headships from such schools, compared with 28% of headships in the South East and 32% in the East of England falling in this grouping; both areas with high employment and significant areas of affluence. The South East had the largest percentage of schools in the lowest groups of less than 10% of pupils in the school eligible for Free School Meals. This compared with just 21% in London and the North East regions schools that have advertised for a new headteacher.

Conclusion

2023 is proving to be the most challenging year for recruitment into both training and employment for schools in the secondary sector. This evidence has focused on that sector, although data are available for the primary sector. However, falling rolls mean that staffing requirements are often less of an issue overall in the primary school sector than in the secondary sector.

One area of concern not mentioned already is the emergence of teaching as an international career. For teachers trained in England, the growth of private schools across the globe, many operated by private schools based in England, has created a new market for teachers trained in England. As other countries also face teacher shortages, recruiting teachers from England may seem attractive to their governments. Just as the Home Office operates a list managed by the Migration Advisory Committee of those occupations eligible for visas to teach in England, so some other countries also promote inward migration of those in certain occupations. Australia accelerated the processing of visa application for those wanting to work as  schoolteachers in December 2022 in order to reduce waiting time to three days Skilled visa processing priorities (homeaffairs.gov.au)

By the time the Education Select committee takes oral evidence, the situation for both staffing schools in September 2023 and entry into training for the 2024 labour market will be clearer. At that point a more detailed discussion on recommendations for other strategies for future action will be possible.

Children educated in state schools need access to high quality teaching regardless of where they live and what they are learning. A nation’s future, now, more than ever, rests upon the success of its education system.

March 2023

Evidence to Education Select Committee by Prof. John Howson, Chair TeachVac