Written evidence submitted by Kay Wagland, Arundel SCATE (SRI0057)

Poor practice by National Highways

Though outdated and largely dismissed by transport professionals, NH still works on a ‘predict and provide’ basis to develop road schemes, using unchecked traffic growth forecast models, based on extrapolation of historic data, that do not challenge expectations that economic growth means inevitable road traffic growth. RIS scheme ‘benefits’ are based on comparisons with ‘do minimum’ scenarios using these traffic growth forecasts which are retrospectively found to be consistently over-estimated. Over-estimating ‘do minimum’ traffic growth inflates benefits of proposed schemes, bearing in mind  that increasing road capacity consistently induces additional traffic.

The RIS is inconsistent with other key national policies and strategies, most importantly climate targets  and recommendations of the Climate Change Committee that road traffic must be reduced.

National Highways has a major financial interest in developing car/road-based ‘solutions’ to traffic corridor issues, with income generated to NH as a business, the bigger  the scheme, the better (for NH). Unrecorded conversations with NH staff reveal ‘we don’t do buses’ (or active travel, or links to rail stations, or any of the options that should be considered before road development).

Case study:

RIS2 Arundel A27 Bypass scheme has grown, in big way, to a 8km dual carriageway through valuable  and ‘extraordinary’ (Natural England) areas of wildlife habitat, historic landscape and impactful flood plain, destroying two villages and drastically impacting a third, from a maximum budget of £250 million to a minimum of £455 million (and rapidly growing). This, to address a relatively low level traffic problem – between two areas with far greater congestion issues (Worthing and Chichester), which can be shown to be exacerbated by the Arundel scheme.

Presented with an alternative proposal – a smaller scheme, at far lower cost and environmental impact, improving safety and demonstratively able to meet the conditions required, including forecast traffic increases  to cater for the predicted growth in traffic until 2041 (project horizon), NH has dismissed the proposal with erroneous calculations for 2041 capacity, but mostly on the basis that it will not meet longer term traffic growth – growth that cannot be accommodated if we are to meet climate targets (fleet decarbonisation notwithstanding). Congestion Reference Flow calculations available on request.

I raise the Arundel A27 Bypass as an example, not just because I have a local interest in it, but because I have had reason  to unpick the NH information and communications in detail, have had many face-to-face discussions with NH staff over the scheme proposals and have learnt the parameters and culture within which they work.

February 2023