Written evidence submitted by Mr. Qais Hussain
How accurate are predicted grades at GCSE?
In 2019, around two-thirds of GCSE History students achieved a different grade compared to the grade they were predicted.
A recent study by Peter Atherton (a data manager at a 11-18 college) on the "accuracy" of predicted GCSE grades in 2019 is generating lots of interest and debate on Twitter. Worth a look on his twitter account (@DataEducator).
The headline findings for the whole sample (27,200 students) are:
40% of GCSE students get the grade they were predicted (although for GCSE Maths this is over 50%)
The variability of under/over predictions is broadly equal, with around 30% of students getting better grades than predicted and a similar percentage performing worse than predicted.
For GCSE History the “accuracy” of predicted grades in 2019 was 34.6% based on a sample of 1,936 students.
Of course, there are several factors that we might expect would lead to a more “accurate” calculated grading process this summer, not the least being that it really matters!