Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office on behalf of HM Government – Written evidence (AFG0011)
House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee (IRDC) Inquiry
THE UK AND AFGHANISTAN
SUMMARY
This memorandum sets out the objectives, policies and programmes of Her Majesty’s Government (HMG) with respect to Afghanistan. It also assesses Afghanistan’s geopolitical environment and domestic context.
Key points:
- While Afghanistan faces considerable challenges, particularly with respect to security, it has made significant progress on governance, human rights, and the path to a credible peace process.
- The support the UK, with international partners, provides to Afghanistan’s security, development and governance is crucial to helping it build a stable state and tackling terrorism and other threats to the UK.
- The UK remains committed to supporting Afghanistan on its journey towards lasting stability and security.
Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office
7 September 2020
House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee (IRDC) Inquiry
THE UK AND AFGHANISTAN
Written evidence from the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office on behalf of HM Government.
This memorandum sets out the objectives, policies and programmes of Her Majesty’s Government (HMG) with respect to Afghanistan. It also assesses Afghanistan’s geopolitical environment and domestic context. It is submitted as evidence to the House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee Inquiry examining the Government’s diplomatic, military and aid strategy for Afghanistan.
CONTEXT
1. The United Kingdom has played an important role in supporting Afghanistan over the past nineteen years. We have worked alongside our NATO Allies and other international partners to ensure Afghanistan does not again become a safe haven for terrorist attacks on the UK or our Allies. We have done this through our significant contribution in development aid, military presence and diplomatic engagement. UK non-combat support has also been vital. International military training, advice and assistance to Afghan forces and security institutions has supported the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan’s intent to assume lead responsibility for the country’s security.
2. Strengthened Afghan security capability has provided the conditions for continued advances in governance and development in Afghanistan, particularly within the country’s towns and cities, with improved but fragile human rights, and has helped make the UK safer by reducing the capacity of terrorists to plan, organise and carry out attacks.
3. While Afghanistan has made progress, it continues to face considerable challenges. Afghanistan continues to face severe security threats from non-state armed groups, including terrorist groups. Afghanistan’s fiscal viability continues to depend on the support of the international community. COVID-19 has had profound secondary impacts on the Afghan economy, diminishing the impact of two decades of substantial development and humanitarian aid.
4. Notwithstanding these challenges, Afghanistan now stands on the cusp of a peace process potentially as significant as the Bonn Agreement of December 2001. An agreement signed by the US and the Taliban on 29 February 2020, alongside a joint declaration by the US and the Afghan government, creates an opportunity to negotiate an enduring, sustainable peace settlement.
5. There are real obstacles to peace, not least that the fundamentalist philosophy and political approach of the Taliban weaken the prospects for compromise, particularly concerning the protection of human rights. The UK, alongside our allies in the international community, will, however, continue to support the process as the best way to build a more stable, prosperous and inclusive state for Afghans that tackles terrorism and other threats to the UK. Despite the challenges presented by the Taliban’s philosophy, the UK, alongside our allies and partners, will continue to press for a settlement that protects the hard-won gains of the past nineteen years, including the rights of women and minorities. The alternative to a peace negotiation leading to a settlement is likely to be further years of violent conflict, with no guarantee that the situation will improve from its current levels.
AFGHANISTAN’S IMPORTANCE
6. The UK has a number of crucial security and foreign policy interests in Afghanistan, foremost among them tackling instability and terrorism. After the appalling 9/11 terrorist attacks, the UK supported the invocation of NATO’s Article V in September 2001. The UK played a leading role in NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). Since 2015, we have been heavily engaged in the subsequent NATO non-combat mission, Resolute Support (RS), which brings together thirty-eight NATO and Coalition partners to train, advise and assist Afghan forces, who have led on security since 2015. This assistance is crucial to building a stable Afghan state, protecting civilians and tackling terrorism and other threats to the UK.
7. Afghanistan remains the main source of the world’s heroin, including that used in the UK. We have sought to minimise the threat to the UK from narcotics originating in Afghanistan and other serious crime, above all by strengthening the Afghan security and justice sector. We have worked to tackle the causes of terrorism, crime, conflict and instability by: reducing poverty; supporting progress in the rights of all Afghans, especially women and minorities; delivering essential humanitarian assistance, and helping the Afghan state to develop more constructive relations with its neighbours, including through the Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity, a framework for promoting bilateral cooperation between the two countries.
THE PEACE PROCESS
8. The UK’s interests, especially our national security, are best served by a peaceful and stable Afghanistan. We continue to provide strong support to Afghan and US peace efforts. There have been some positive first steps on a long and complex path to a negotiated, inclusive settlement. The US-Taliban agreement reached on 29 February 2020 sets out plans for phased withdrawal of international forces in return for the Taliban entering negotiations with the Afghan government and preventing Afghanistan’s use by terrorist groups as a base for activity. That agreement is being implemented, albeit with delays. In June 2020, the US announced they had reduced the number of US troops in Afghanistan to 8,600, from a peak of approximately 13,000 for much of 2019, and withdrawn from five military bases in Afghanistan. In a US State Department interview on 1 June, US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad, said the US will continue to monitor closely Taliban delivery of their commitments, and would link further reductions in the number of troops to conditions being met.
9. The start of negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban would be an historic opportunity for lasting peace in Afghanistan. Negotiations between the Afghan parties are expected to cover a variety of issues, including the role of the Taliban in a future Afghan government. If the Taliban wish to play a political role in the country’s future and share the goals of stability and security for its population, then they must enter a political process. We have made clear the importance of all sides coming together to deliver the inclusive and sustainable peace that the Afghan people want and deserve. Whilst the Taliban’s fundamentalist philosophy will make this challenging, we are clear that any political resolution involving the Taliban should protect and build on the progress made in Afghanistan, particularly protection for women and minorities. The UK, alongside our Allies and international partners, are united in this and will devote our diplomatic, aid and security efforts to stand up for the rights of all Afghans.
10. Under the terms of their agreement with the US, the Taliban have committed to engage in direct peace talks, aimed at reaching a lasting peace settlement. Until they enter negotiations meaningfully, however, it remains unclear how the Taliban’s views may evolve, and how and whether the movement will maintain cohesion. Until now, the Taliban have sought to replace Afghanistan’s democracy with an imposed ‘Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan,’ based on their fundamentalist interpretation of Islamic law, and to remove all foreign forces (the United Nations does not recognise or support the term ‘Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’). While the Taliban are not a unitary movement, they have demonstrated a high level of cohesion, most recently through short-term ceasefires.
SECURITY
11. The Taliban, Daesh Khorasan Province (ISKP) and Al Qaeda are responsible for most violence against Afghan civilians and pose the most significant security threats to the UK and our allies.
12. The Taliban mainly control remote and rural areas, where insecurity presents challenges for aid access. The group oversees some basic service delivery to communities living in areas under their control. This includes education, health, and justice, though service provision is often achieved through intimidation and coercion; and there is limited provision for women and minorities.
13. While it is difficult to measure accurately who has control over territory and/or the population in Afghanistan, most Afghans live in Afghan government-secured areas.
14. As part of the February 2020 agreement between the Taliban and United States, the Taliban committed to prevent terrorist groups, including Al Qaeda, using Afghanistan as a base for activity. The Taliban are fighting ISKP, a Daesh regional affiliate which emerged in 2015 and which poses a persistent threat in Afghanistan, with the potential to threaten the UK in the longer term. ISKP continues to conduct attacks against the Afghan government; its international partners; minority religious and civil society figures; and the Taliban. Al Qaeda is now less active in Afghanistan than before 2001. The group has not, however, ceased to exist and remains a threat to Afghanistan and the international community, according to the UN Monitoring Team’s report of May 2020.
15. The UK continues to play an influential role on security. We are one of the leading contributors to the NATO mission and provide £70 million per year to sustain Afghan forces and their supporting institutions. The UK is the lead nation for the Afghan National Army Officer Academy, which has contributed to the growth in capabilities of Afghan forces and put them on a path to self-sufficiency. In addition, we deliver a professionalisation programme in the UK for Afghan officers. Programme alumni occupy senior positions in the Afghan government, which helps build closer ties between the UK and Afghanistan, as well as affording operational dividends in terms of our own personnel’s security.
16. International support has helped build the capacity and capability of Afghanistan’s security forces. In recent months, the army has handled the COVID-19 crisis and a concerted Taliban offensive well. The special forces are highly capable and routinely conduct successful, independent operations against the Taliban and ISKP. The air force conduct deliberate and dynamic targeting, train personnel, maintain their aircraft and manage logistics with non-combat NATO support. As Afghan forces continue to improve, the need for an international security presence will reduce. NATO is planning for a number of eventualities, including adjustments to the international military presence. The UK and our Allies remain committed to Afghanistan, including by funding their armed forces whose capability is vital for UK national security interests. Neither the Afghan forces, nor the Taliban, are capable of winning the war militarily.
ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT
17. Afghanistan’s largest economic sector is services (55% of GDP), followed by agriculture (25% of GDP) and industry (22% of GDP). There are opportunities to build upon all three to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals and create jobs and livelihoods. In particular, reforms to tackle corruption, inappropriate regulation, excessive taxation, unfair competition and an unstable policy environment would promote investment and the development of a more efficient market system. There is little evidence on the true nature of the illicit and grey economy. Formal economic institutions have only recently been reintroduced, however, and still have limited reach. It is possible that the informal economy constitutes a majority of economic activity.
18. Afghanistan mainly trades with its neighbours. Pakistan is its largest trading partner followed by Iran, China, India, Turkey and Central Asian countries. Afghanistan is a net importer, with a negative trade balance of $8.74 billion in 2018. It exports a small number of goods. Long-term development and regional economic connectivity will be important for Afghanistan’s prosperity. This will require sustained support from international partners, and increased support from regional partners, in supporting reconstruction, socio-economic development and good governance in Afghanistan. The UK is working closely with regional and international donors to co-ordinate commitments and ensure these address Afghanistan’s needs.
19. UK Official Development Assistance (ODA) to Afghanistan has contributed to some notable achievements since 2001. These include:
20. The UK is part of the core group of major development donors that ensures aid delivers reforms and accountability, and tackles corruption. In line with best practice in aid effectiveness, much of the UK’s ODA commitment to Afghanistan is spent through coordinated financing mechanisms, notably the Afghan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF), managed by the World Bank and accounting for 40% of civilian government expenditure in 2018. The UK spends approximately half of its annual ODA for Afghanistan, which amounted to £214.4 million in 2019, in this way. In 2019, the majority of the remaining amount was spent on humanitarian support (£63 million), channelled through the Afghanistan Humanitarian Fund (AHF), and programmes managed from the UK (£29 million). Other donors contribute to the same pooled and coordinating mechanisms as the UK to support the same programmes. This means comparisons with other countries are not possible as overall results are shared between contributors.
21. Despite progress across a number of development indicators, Afghanistan continues to face significant economic challenges. Annual economic growth has declined from 12.7% in 2012 to 2.9% in 2019. These challenges have been exacerbated by increasing insecurity, as well as with COVID-19 and its secondary impacts. As of 31 July, there were 959 reported cases and 33.4 deaths from the virus per one million people in Afghanistan. Actual cases are believed to be significantly higher than official figures, however, due to a lack of data and very low levels of testing. The fragile health system has faced shortages of medical equipment and personnel. Secondary impacts are likely to be greater than those directly related to COVID-19. National vaccination campaigns have been paused and there has been a significant reduction in visits to primary healthcare centres. The economy has contracted sharply, with the World Bank forecasting a drop in GDP of between 5.5 and 7.4% in 2020 compared with 2019. The incidence of poverty has risen from 55% in 2017 to an estimated 70% in 2020. Food insecurity is an increasing concern. HMG’s Acute Food Insecurity Monitor assesses that Afghanistan is at very high risk of famine, due to ongoing conflict, widespread unemployment and spikes in commodity prices. $885 million of existing UK and other international aid has been redirected to combat the crisis and new funding has been allocated to the Afghan government’s COVID-19 plan.
GOVERNANCE
22. Afghanistan continues to operate as a multi-ethnic state, with minority groups represented at all levels of government. On 17 May 2020, President Ghani and Chairman Abdullah reached an agreement to divide ministerial responsibilities in the government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. The agreement is political and not legal and depends upon the commitment of President Ghani and Chairman Abdullah to continue working together. It has enabled progress towards intra-Afghan negotiations.
23. Since 2002, governance has improved in Afghanistan. Its 2004 Constitution established a presidential democracy, with presidential, parliamentary and local government elections. Despite some election results being politically and legally challenged, they have resulted in peaceful transitions of power at national and local levels. Elections have led to a properly constituted executive, judiciary and legislature. Technical and financial support from the international community has increased the capacity of the civil service to develop policy, manage budgets and deliver services. Considerable progress has been made to improve the legal processes necessary to tackle corruption. The reform agenda is, however, incomplete. Patronage and informal local justice systems still exist and police and judicial reform will take more time.
HUMAN RIGHTS
24. Despite advances, gains in human rights remain fragile and will be challenging to protect in a peace process that may result in increased Taliban control. To date, there have been positive steps towards implementation of constitutional provisions to protect the rights of women and minorities. This includes the fact that the provision for reserved seats for women in Parliament has now been converted into law. Afghan-led reforms, supported by international donors, have increased merit-based recruitment and female and minority employment. With Afghanistan, the UK launched the Group of Friends of Women in Afghanistan, to advocate a stronger role for Afghan women, including in the peace process.
25. Afghanistan’s steps towards a diverse, free and vibrant media sector is a major success story in the protection and promotion of freedom of expression. Afghanistan’s 2009 Mass Media Law prohibits censorship and the country tops the Global Right to Information Rating due to the strength of the 2014 Access to Information Law. In January 2020, Afghanistan signed the Global Pledge on Media Freedom, becoming a member of the Global Coalition. However, challenges remain for a sector operating in a country which, according to Reporters Without Borders, was the world’s deadliest for journalists in 2018, mainly due to the ongoing conflict. Some journalists feel forced to self-censor in the face of Taliban threats. Human rights defenders continue to face significant threats and challenges.
26. The British Government supports media freedom in Afghanistan. The British Embassy in Kabul assists through capacity-building for Afghan government communicators and programming to promote open debate. In the Financial Year 2019-20, the Embassy implemented projects worth around £300,000 to improve access to information, journalist safety and support female journalists. We maintain a regular and honest dialogue with government about the importance of media freedom. In this way, the UK continues to advocate to protect human rights gains in Afghanistan’s peace process.
REGIONAL AND GLOBAL SUPPORT
27. All of Afghanistan’s regional partners, and the wider international community, have an interest in Afghanistan achieving sustainable peace and a path to greater development. This should help to reduce global terrorist and extremist threats and flows of narcotics and serious organised crime directly to the UK. It would also help realise opportunities for greater regional trade and connectivity. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the UK has been a key part of support for the peace process and has steered the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).
28. The US provides the most significant levels of support to the government of Afghanistan and Afghan National Defence and Security Forces. That is unlikely to change in the near term. The US has been a leading force in creating the conditions for an Afghan peace process to start. Several other countries have helped in that endeavour, including Pakistan. A ‘quint’ of Afghanistan’s regional and international partners, Germany, Norway, Uzbekistan, Indonesia and Qatar, has dedicated significant resources in preparing to support intra-Afghan negotiations. The UK works closely with ‘quint’ members and has directly assisted Afghan government efforts to advance the peace process, including the Ministry of Peace. UK support includes a targeted Peace and Reconciliation Programme, funded through the Conflict, Stability and Security Fund (CSSF). Other engaged partners include the EU, Denmark, Finland, Italy, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, and the UAE, whose support includes developmental and technical assistance.
29. We welcome regional efforts to enhance connectivity between Afghanistan, Central Asia and South Asia, including the 2018 Tashkent Conference co-hosted by Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. The UK is supporting regional economic co-operation both politically and financially, including with £38.5 million over four years through the Asia Regional Trade and Connectivity Programme (ARTCP), and £31 million over seven years through the Central Asia South Asia power project (CASA-1000). These investments aim to increase regional trade and investment, boost economies, alleviate electricity shortages and promote regional stability.
30. India is the largest regional donor of development assistance to Afghanistan and fifth largest donor globally, with over $3 billion committed up to 2020. India is likely to continue to play a crucial role in Afghanistan’s reconstruction in the future, along with China as another key regional actor with resources. Pakistan and Iran, as countries with the largest shared borders with Afghanistan, are crucial for connectivity and host the largest populations of Afghan refugees. The two countries are committed to the voluntary, safe and dignified return of refugee populations as part of Afghanistan’s reconstruction.
31. While the rate of return of Afghan refugees is currently slow, this could change. In particular, successful intra-Afghan negotiations could precipitate the return of large numbers of refugees. The presence of large numbers of refugees in Afghanistan neighbouring countries can strain infrastructure and services, particularly in the north of Pakistan, and reduce employment opportunities for citizens of the host country. However, refugees also benefit their host countries by filling gaps in the labour market and expanding the private sector.
HMG POLICY COORDINATION
32. Our long term objectives remain to support Afghan-led efforts towards a sustainable political settlement, while building a viable Afghan state and sustainable, capable Afghan forces, and to deny safe havens to international terrorist groups. HMG has long managed our contribution to those aims through an integrated approach, underpinned by standing committees of officials at all levels across government. For example, a National Security Strategy Implementation Group for South Asia regularly brings together aid, defence and diplomacy officials at Director-General level. It includes departments and agencies covering counter narcotics, counter terrorism, serious crime, migration, wider security and other interests. The National Security Council Officials (NSC(O)) group has held substantive discussions regarding future Afghanistan policy three times in the last twelve months. It has also discussed significant developments in the peace process and security situation at various points in the year.
33. HMG’s Integrated Review is an opportunity to extend and develop the already close co-ordination across HMG work in Afghanistan. The Review will define HMG’s ambition for the UK’s role in the world and long-term strategic aims for our national security and foreign policy, including in relation to Afghanistan, which continues to pose significant security threats to the UK. The Review will assess the capabilities and system reforms that will be needed to deliver these ambitions, in addition to seizing the opportunities offered by uniting development and diplomacy under the new Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.
34. DFID, the FCO and MOD already work closely together on Afghanistan policy. The creation of a new single Department from DFID and the FCO is an opportunity to ensure our development and foreign policy are even more closely aligned and that decisions on development spending are taken in a way that considers to an even greater extent a coherent and unified set of priorities. It will enable us to pool our combined expertise and bring our diplomatic, development and security work even closer.
CONCLUSION
35. HMG is committed to continuing to support Afghanistan on its long and complex journey towards lasting stability and security through diplomacy, military training and advice, and development assistance. While we recognise the acute challenges of achieving a truly inclusive peace settlement that includes a fundamentalist Taliban, Afghanistan can yet achieve lasting peace, with the ongoing support of the international community. Above all, we are committed to enabling a potentially transformative political process, which would be to the benefit of all Afghans, the UK and our Allies.
REFERENCES
1. ‘Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan’, February 2020: https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf
2. Reporters Without Borders Worldwide Round-Up, December 2018: https://rsf.org/sites/default/files/worldwilde_round-up.pdf
3. UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Report, May 2020: https://www.undocs.org/S/2020/415
4. US State Department Briefing, June 2020: https://www.state.gov/briefing-with-special-representative-for-afghanistan-reconciliation-zalmay-khalilzad-on-updates-from-the-road-to-afghan-peace-and-reconciliation/
5. World Bank Biannual Afghanistan Development Update, July 2020: http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/132851594655294015/pdf/Afghanistan-Development-Update-Surviving-the-Storm.pdf
Received 7 September 2020
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