International Development Committee Inquiry on Extreme Poverty and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Met Office Response

18 February 2022

Introduction

The Met Office is the UK’s National Meteorological Service (NMS), a Public Sector Research Establishment (PSRE) and an Executive Agency of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS).  We are responsible for monitoring and predicting the weather and providing the National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS).  In addition, we are home to the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, which delivers policy relevant climate advice to the UK Government and beyond. 

The global nature of weather and climate means we also work extensively internationally, both bilaterally with individual countries and with multilateral organisations such as the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

It is widely acknowledged that vulnerable communities are disproportionately affected by climate change and that extreme weather can be a driver for poverty.  A World Bank report[1] (2020) showed that climate change could push more than 100 million people into poverty by 2030, therefore effective weather and climate services are essential for the management of weather and climate hazards.  The Met Office provides UK Government with expert support on a number of Official Development Assistance (ODA) programmes across different departments:   

1. The Met Office delivers FCDO’s Weather and climate Information SERvices for Africa (WISER) and Asia Regional Resilience in a Changing Climate (ARRCC) Programmes.
2. The Met Office is a delivery partner for BEIS’s Newton Fund through the Weather & Climate Science for Service Partnership (WCSSP) programme. 

It is in this capacity that we are responding to this inquiry, highlighting the importance of weather and climate in building the foundations for tackling poverty and how FCDO & BEIS programmes are currently addressing this. 

More information on any of the projects and programmes detailed in our response can be provided to the Committee if required.

1. How well is UK Official Development Assistance (ODA) targeted towards tackling extreme poverty and how effectively do the FCDO policies and programmes contribute to the achievement of Target 1.1 of SDG 1?

Weather and climate impacts have serious implications for communities already deemed as vulnerable, therefore ensuring that all citizens can access reliable, timely and usable information about weather and climate hazards can significantly increase resilience.

Enabling communities to understand, prepare for and adapt to the impacts of weather, variability and climate change by working in partnership with beneficiary countries enables climate mitigation mainstreaming and adaptation decision-making. This can help to both mitigate communities from falling into extreme poverty and enable communities to tackle extreme poverty where it already exists.

Projects delivered through the FCDO’s Weather and climate Information SERvices for Africa (WISER) programme and Asia Regional Resilience in a Changing Climate (ARRCC) programme – both of which are managed by the Met Office – showcase how improved access to information increases resilience and supports livelihoods in vulnerable or developing countries. Examples include:

• The WISER High impact weather lake system (HIGHWAY) project on Lake Victoria, supported the establishment of regional cooperation between NMHSs within the framework of the East African Community, where 5.4 million people live in fishing communities around the coastline. Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda were supported to design and communicate impact-based severe weather warnings and forecasts for small-craft fisherfolk. This project resulted in a 30% reduction in weather related deaths between 2019 and 2020 and has generated USD $44m in annual economic benefits to fishing communities.

• The Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) programme is enhancing resilience to extreme weather and climate change in the South Asia region through improving forecast capability, and better use of this information, in decision making, developing innovative approaches to get this information to vulnerable communities, and supporting regional cooperation on climate and broader environmental resilience. 

              The project has provided access to early warning systems for crop-threatening wheat diseases to over 400,000 farmers in Bangladesh and Nepal.  In addition, pilot schemes to improve the use of weather and climate in agricultural planning and decision making are reaching over 4,000 individuals in Bangladesh and Nepal.  To date, training has been provided to over 700 individuals across South Asia on production and utilisation of weather and climate information to support planning and decision making.  Impact Based Forecast (IBF) pilot schemes are providing enhanced forecasting for tropical cyclones reaching over 2.4 million beneficiaries in Bangladesh.

2. How might the FCDO’s strategy, policies and programmes need to change as the number of people in extreme poverty grows due to the global pandemic or the effects of climate change?

Climate Risk
Climate change represents a threat to the successful achievement and maintenance of the Sustainable Development Goals, including Target 1.1.  Climate risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability.  This risk can be managed through action to limit the hazard – which is what we do through mitigation; or by addressing exposure and vulnerability through adaptation. Therefore, it is important that information about the weather and climate is evaluated in the context of the lives and livelihoods of the populations affected. Both mitigation and adaptation to climate change has increasingly important implications for development planning and action. For mitigation this means understanding what different levels of action on curbing greenhouse gas emissions can mean in terms of outcomes for human security and development.  Whilst for adaptation, this means providing credible and robust information on the climatic changes that are inevitable in the future so that decision-makers can evaluate the options available to manage exposure and associated vulnerability.

The Met Office works with UK Government to assess the potential impacts of climate variability on human systems and infrastructure. We provide weather and climate data, expertise and services to the FCDO and other international development actors across a range of timescales, from weather forecasts to support emergency response efforts and Disaster Risk Reduction; through to climate services to help developing countries build their resilience to climate change in the longer term.

In collaboration with the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) and the FCDO, the Met Office provides climate risk reports to contextualise climate variability and change with respect to socio-economic exposure and vulnerability in ODA-eligible regions. These reports are designed to provide FCDO with accessible and authoritative evidence on regional climate risk, which is increasingly relevant to development programming in support of the Department and the UK Government’s adaptation and resilience planning.  Framing research in development programming context is used to both inform resilience and adaptation action for the current and future climate, and to manage risk in the context of complex human-environment systems e.g. climate risks for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region[2] were identified by considering the current climate and climate change model projections from the present day to the 2050s, and their interaction with regional socio-economic vulnerabilities. 

In addition, the Met Office Climate Outlooks provide summaries of temperature and rainfall to FCDO country offices for priority countries and regions 1-6 months ahead; and the International Natural Hazard Forward Look (led by GO-Science, with partner organisations such as Defra, BGS, APHA and PHE) gives information on current and emerging risks informing preparedness planning.

As the number of regions, countries and communities impacted by climate change continue to grow, forecasts, reports and services, such as those highlighted above, will be a valuable source of evidence based information to enable action.

Cross-government coordination and partnerships

As the UK’s primary channel for aid, FCDO has a key role to play in encouraging coordination with other government departments and other funders of development programmes. Following the merger of the Foreign & Commonwealth Office and the Department for International Development, FCDO has increased its focus on leading and supporting cross-government and agency collaboration. The UK Government’s preparation for COP26 is a good example of cross-governmental working towards a common goal, where FCDO played a leading role.

In addition to cross-governmental collaboration, increased working with UN organisations can ensure funders are coordinated.  The African Coordination Meeting, convened by FCDO WISER and hosted by WMO, was designed to gain a better understanding of ongoing and planned initiatives, approaches, mechanisms, priorities with a view to identify potential areas for collaboration and to avoid duplication of efforts to strengthen outcomes on weather, water and climate services in Africa.

As building partnerships with the private sector becomes increasingly important to deliver services in the most optimal and sustainable way, more diverse stakeholder partnerships will be needed. The Adaptation Research Alliance, a global initiative developed by FCDO with IDRC, of over 100 international partners of which Met Office is one, was formally launched at COP26. This is an innovative example in the area of action-orientated research, which involves a multitude of global partners, including academia, the private sector and local communities, to deliver research findings and solutions that are highly relevant for local adaptations.   

Moreover, with multiple funding streams available for international development projects, encouraging collaboration between funders and coordinating investments to achieve common objectives would ensure better, more sustainable outcomes for the recipient communities. A good example of this in action is the Risk-informed Early Action Partnership (REAP), an initiative combining expertise from across the climate, humanitarian and development communities with international funding and demand for services. Over 30 nations and organisations including the UK, WMO, International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) have signed up to the partnership, with the aim of making 1 billion people safer from disaster by 2025 through improved early warning systems and early action plans. 

3. How effectively do the FCDO’s strategy, policies and programmes address the needs of women and girls in extreme poverty?

As recognised by UN Climate Change[3], women and girls are disproportionately impacted by climate change and natural hazards, primarily as they constitute the majority of the world’s poor and are more dependent for their livelihood on natural resources that are threatened by climate change.  This was acknowledged at the COP-26 Gender day, during which, the Met Office hosted a panel session on ‘What Women Bring to Climate Science’. 

As part of the BRACED programme in Burkina Faso (2016-18), a radio play was produced, in French and Moore (a local language) that examined how families could use weather and climate information in their household activities. It specifically targeted women by using humour, a medium that was engaging, and a scenario that was relevant to them and it showed how the new information from the NMHS could be used to support decision making.

WISER is creating a programme-level Gender Equality and Social Inclusion (GESI) action plan which outlines how to conduct the Programme Level GESI analysis. This GESI action plan aims to move the Met Office from a position of awareness (that GESI is important), to action by taking practical steps to achieve greater GESI in its future WISER programme. This will inform the programme on how to incorporate GESI into the design of all aspects of the programme, including GESI sensitive targets, ensuring that budgets incorporate GESI and Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL). GESI will also be embedded as a default starting point for all collaborations, to ensure that all projects have individual action plans and champions in place, and GESI is considered right from the proposal stage and throughout the life cycle of each project.

GESI is also an integral consideration in delivering ARRCC. Initiatives have sought to understand how women farmers access and use weather and climate information services for impact-based forecasting in Pakistan and as part of a socio-economic benefits study for agrometeorology advisories. This insight is being integrated into service enhancements and to inform future improvements to Weather and Climate Information Services.

4. How effectively does the FCDO review the outcomes of the projects and programmes it funds that tackle extreme poverty? What evidence is there that UK aid is being used to build pathways from extreme poverty to sustainable livelihoods?

Many Met Office programmes have shown positive outcomes on local communities, as referenced in Q1.  Whilst there are challenges in relation to longer term impacts, FCDO programmes do regularly undergo independent evaluation. Examples include:

• WISER outcomes are assessed and scored at both the project and programme level as part of an annual review[4], which includes recommendations and lessons learnt on a variety of themes, such as gender, equality, inclusion and sustainability. 
• The ARRCC programme undergoes regular evaluation as part of the FCDO annual review process and recently via an independent mid-term review (2021) which involved consultation with individuals from 20 beneficiary organisations – with learning used to inform both continuous improvement during delivery and how outcomes can be sustained beyond the programme phase.
• FCDO are increasingly introducing requirements for each programme and project to have exit strategies and sustainability plans.

5. What evidence is there to suggest the FCDO is learning and applying lessons from its policies and programmes, so they more effectively tackle extreme poverty and does the FCDO have a good evidence base for what does and does not work?

In addition to the annual reports mentioned above, programme completion reports are also conducted and include lessons learnt which are then incorporated into any following or continuous phases of programmes. The Met Office also incorporates aspects of FCDO’s Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL)[5] framework within existing programmes and projects in order to improve performance through better management of outputs, outcomes and impact. Examples include:

• WISER has adopted MEL framework for measuring value for money, socioeconomic benefits and transformational effects across the programme. The aim is to ensure a coherent and harmonised approach is adopted by all project stakeholders.  For proposers, it is stressed that this guidance should be considered as early as possible in the process, i.e. at the concept note stage.
• The ARRCC MEL framework provides details of programme targets and indicators to monitor progress including indicators for the number of people whose resilience has been improved as a result of the programme, and an assessment of the social and economic benefits from enhanced resilience.  This is implemented by the programme delivery team and independently via FCDO MEL consultants.  Results are collated and reported against as both quantitative log frame-specific results, as well as supporting qualitative narrative to explain and contextualise the quantified results.
• The MEL framework includes a learning component which focuses on selected topics to inform future programme and policy development.

6. What effect have the cuts in UK ODA had on the FCDO’s ability to address extreme poverty? What evidence is there to suggest poverty was a key consideration in deciding where the cuts should fall?

No response from Met Office

7. How the FCDO can play a more effective part in the eradication of poverty as a convener, thought leader and investor.

As set out in the Integrated Review, the success of Global Britain requires an understanding of British strengths, including where we can build resilience overseas.  Working with FCDO, the Met Office can support the UK’s aspiration to be a ‘problem-solving and burden-sharing nation’. 

The Met Office represents the UK Government as a member of the WMO and has a dedicated Manager working closely with FCDO to manage this relationship. Through our membership to WMO, the Met Office has been able to develop understanding, awareness and partnerships with multiple countries internationally. This domain expertise and existing international partnerships mean we have been well placed to foster the underlying research and development of local meteorological capacity needed to support international development efforts. Met Office experts are closely involved in influencing and contributing to the work of the WMO on an ongoing basis, including as President of the WMO Commission for Weather, Water, Climate and Environmental Services and Applications; and as a member of the WMO Capacity Development Panel, which is responsible for overseeing the WMO capacity development strategy.  

Weather and Climate partnerships can provide an area of common ground on which to build relationships with targeted countries to enhance and strengthen diplomatic relations. Working through organisations such as the WMO is one way to identify and engage constructively with partner NMHSs and other organisations in order to realise common objectives and find efficiencies in the way they can be delivered. For example, the inclusion of Malawi in the Risk-informed Early Action Partnership (REAP) stemmed from work which the Met Office did in partnership with their Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (though the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Programme).  

WMO intergovernmental meetings and Expert Teams also provide an opportunity to be part of a global network of world-leading experts, including from NMHSs, UN bodies, NGOs, academia and the private sector. Through these interactions the UK is well placed to stay abreast of emerging issues and opportunities for development partnerships.    

Moreover, as the UK pursues its ambition to be a ‘science and technology superpower’, FCDO may be able to support and utilise emerging technologies in ODA projects.  For example, the Met Office is researching the use of digital twins to anticipate and manage the risks and impacts of climate change.  Digital twins could enable a link between environmental change and a range of potentially impacted systems, allowing a clearer understanding of risk propagation and the testing of interventions that could be applied to services in vulnerable communities.    

8. How has the merger of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the Department for International Development affected the UK’s approach to extreme poverty?

In line with the Integrated Review, the merger has seen a direction of programme focus towards resilience of communities.  Stabilising regions will indirectly support extreme poverty, for example, resilience to extreme weather and climate change are an important part of sustainable development, as many developing countries depend heavily on agriculture and natural resources for the livelihoods of their people. Where situations are already finely balanced, weather and water are exacerbators of negative change. Some communities are particularly vulnerable to severe weather, climate variability and climate change, which can have catastrophic impacts on the safety of life, including food security.

As detailed in our response to Q2. above, the merger has also resulted in an increased focus on leading and supporting cross-government and agency collaboration by FCDO. Greater partnership and collaboration work can help to ensure that projects and programmes aiming to mitigate against or alleviate extreme poverty in vulnerable communities, are designed and delivered efficiently and effectively to the areas that need them the most.