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NHS England’s modelling for the Long-Term Workforce Plan


NHS England published its Long Term Workforce Plan (LTWP) in June 2023. The Plan envisages the number of medical school places doubling, and for nursing undergraduate places to nearly double between 2022 and 2031. Additional funding of £2.4billion has been announced by Government for increasing training for the five years to 2028-29.

The National Audit Office (NAO) in spring 2024 carried out an independent assessment of the modelling behind the LTWP, which uses data and assumptions about variables including supply and demand to establish the number of medical professionals the NHS expects to need in five, ten and 15 years’ time. The NAO assessment includes the methodologies for modelling workforce demand and supply, and the accuracy and robustness of models used.

The Committee’s 2023 report on urgent and emergency care highlighted risks that future unsustainable financial pressures were built into the LTWP, including a commitment of an additional £2.4billion to cover training costs for the first five years of the 15-year plan.

Based on the NAO’s assessment, the Committee will hear from senior officials at the Department of Health & Social Care (DHSC), HM Treasury, and NHS England, on subjects including:

  • Models underpinning the LTWP;
  • Future NHS productivity;
  • Expansion of training places;
  • Funding.

If you have evidence on these issues, please submit it here by 23:59 on 22 May 2024.

Please look at the requirements for written evidence submissions and note that the Committee cannot accept material as evidence that is published elsewhere.

This inquiry is no longer accepting evidence

The deadline for submissions was Wednesday 22 May 2024.

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