Leading economic forecasters to be questioned on modelling ahead of Spring budget
The Treasury Committee will question a panel of leading economic forecasters on the predictions which shape a significant proportion of the discourse around UK economic policy, and the techniques and assumptions which underpin them.
Sir Charlie Bean, a former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) Committee, will give his view to the cross-party group of MPs. The panel will also include the Chief Executive of the Centre for Economics and Business Research, Nina Skero, and Barclays’ Chief UK Economist, Dr Jack Meaning.
With the Spring budget less than one month away, MPs are likely to probe witnesses on the advantages and limitations offered by economic forecasting – with a possible focus on how the OBR is likely to approach the central role it plays in the Government’s major fiscal events.
Members may want to consider the circumstances which necessitated Dr Ben Bernanke’s review into Bank of England forecasting, as well as the impact of unreliable official data on the accuracy of forecasts.
Invitations were extended to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), both of which published economic outlooks for the UK within recent weeks. Both organisations were unable to put forward any officials to attend this session.