Defence cuts to create air capability gap into 2030s, Committee report finds

The report finds that cuts set out in the 2021 Defence Command Paper will create a combat air capability gap which will persist into the 2030s. The Committee concludes that the RAF’s combat aircraft fleet is made up of highly capable aircraft, but that its reduced numbers raise serious questions as to whether it could defend the UK in an all-out war.

The report calls for the Government to increase combat air mass as a matter of urgency, and to swiftly implement planned upgrades to our existing fleet.

Hercules and Wedgetail

The report criticises the early retirement of the C-130J Hercules fleet, which has severely reduced the capacity of the air mobility fleet. The Committee is particularly concerned about the impact on our Special Forces, with the RAF left scrambling to transfer essential capabilities onto the A400M Atlas, which has a poor track record of reliability.

The report finds that the decision to reduce the UK’s Wedgetail E-7 fleet from five to three stands out as “the most perverse” in the Command Paper, with the fleet cut by 40% for an acquisition saving of just 12%. The Committee concludes that the reduced fleet will leave the UK unable to meet our commitments to NATO, as well as our own sovereign needs. The report calls for this decision to be reversed, and for a new commitment of at least five aircraft.

Training

The Committee finds that the RAF’s senior leadership has failed to address problems within the pilot training pipeline. The report calls the delays and backlogs of recent years “completely unacceptable” and says that they have serious implications for the effectiveness of our Armed Forces and for pilot morale.

The Committee finds that a flying training model which cannot adapt to changed crewing requirements, without introducing years of delay for pilots, is clearly not fit for purpose.

Fast-jet training in particular has suffered a significant reduction in capacity due to a lack of aircraft availability and as a result the MOD will spend over £50 million sending pilots overseas for training whilst the contractors responsible will face no financial penalty. The report calls for the MOD to review contractual arrangements and processes across the flying training model, ensuring that contractors are liable for costs incurred by their failures.

The report is critical of the RAF’s stated intention for 80 percent of flying training to be “synthetic”, using simulators. This is sub-optimal for both pilots and ground crew. The MOD should ensure that the proposed mix of synthetic and live flying training is in line with the approach taken across NATO.

As this first inquiry concludes, the Committee has today launched a new, follow-on, inquiry into future aviation capabilities. They will examine the MOD’s approach to major forthcoming procurements including the Global Combat Air Programme, in which the UK is partnering with Japan and Italy to produce a next-generation fighter jet, and the New Medium Lift Helicopter competition.

Chair comment

Chair of the Defence Committee, Tobias Ellwood MP, said:

“Air power capability can make or break a military. The ability to control the skies is critical in modern warfare and aircraft provide unparalleled reach, height and speed for our Armed Forces.

“Since the end of the Cold War, the RAF’s fleet has taken a nosedive in numbers, down to just a third of its previous size. Our report, published today, found that budget cuts – including those in the last Defence Command Paper – have led to gaps in air capability that will persist into the next decade.

“Our inquiry found that the RAF has prioritised quality at the expense of quantity, leaving us with a fleet of combat aircraft that are high-spec and expensive yet alarmingly low in number. Our current fleet fails to reach the mass necessary to survive the attrition of an all-out war with a peer adversary. Fixing this is a matter of urgency; allowing capability gaps to bed in will only widen them in the long-term.

“Today’s report calls for the immediate reversal of the reduction in the E-7 Wedgetail fleet. Effective Airborne Early Warning & Control is critical for our national security, and for meeting our commitments to the NATO. Meanwhile the early retirement of the C-130J Hercules fleet will have a massive impact on operations across Defence, as well as humanitarian missions, and leaves our Special Forces reliant on the notoriously unreliable A400M Atlas.

“Uncrewed Aerial Systems will play an important role in combat air in the future. However, at present, we’re still heavily dependent on crewed aircraft, and when it comes to pilot training, the RAF has taken its eye off the ball – meaning planes without pilots. Delays and backlogs have plagued training programmes in recent years. We cannot allow this to continue, and we will remain focused on ensuring that the RAF is able to get trainee pilots off the ground and into the sky as soon as possible.

“The increasing proportion of training in ‘synthetic’ aircraft is a serious concern. Simulations are no substitute for the real deal. RAF pilots are among the most capable in the world but cutting corners now may have severe consequences down the line.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine signalled the beginning of a darker and more dangerous era for Europe. Despite this, the Ministry of Defence has failed to reverse any of its 2021 cuts to our aviation capabilities. If the Ministry of Defence refuses to see the writing on the wall and fails to make adequate investment, there are turbulent times ahead.”

Further information

• About Parliament: Select committees
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