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Justice Committee to examine the future prison population and estate capacity

15 September 2023

The Justice Committee has today launched a new inquiry examining the future prison population and estate capacity. The prison population is currently projected to increase to 94,400 by March 2025 and a range of 93,100 to 106,300 by March 2027.

As of 8 September 2023, there were 87,128 people in prison: 83,590 in the male estate and 3,538 in the female estate. In response to the acute increase in the adult male estate last October, the Government activated Operation Safeguard, sanctioning the temporary use of up to 400 police cells to hold people overnight when there is insufficient space. This year, the Government also started rolling out Rapid Deployment Cells to manage the demand for prison places.

In its Prisons White Paper Strategy, the Government stated that 20,000 additional prison places would be created by the mid-2020s: 18,000 prison places (announced in 2020) and 2,000 temporary places. As of 4 July 2023, 5,400 additional places have been completed. Should the Government deliver its planned capacity projects on time, there will still potentially be a shortfall of 2,300 prison places against projected demand by March 2025.

Chair's comments

Chair of the Justice Committee, Sir Bob Neill said:

“The prison population in England and Wales is rising and is forecast to increase even further. The temporary use of police cells serves to highlight the pressing need for the Government to urgently address prison capacity.

Overcrowding remains an issue within the prison estate, particularly in male local prisons and the rise in the prison population may also aggravate pre-existing issues across the estate. Concerns have been raised over safety, the condition of old prison buildings and the lack of staff to safely manage and rehabilitate offenders.

This is a timely inquiry and the Justice Committee intends to take evidence from a wide range of stakeholders to examine the effectiveness of the Ministry of Justice's current strategy for safely and effectively managing the prison population.”

Terms of reference    

The Justice Committee invites written submissions by Friday 20 October 2023 addressing any or all of the following questions:

  • What changes are expected in the size and composition of the prison population in the short, medium and long term?
  • What is the Ministry of Justice's current strategy for safely and effectively managing the prison population, and how effective is it?
  • Is the Government’s commitment to deliver 20,000 prison places by the mid-2020s achievable and sufficient to manage the projected demand for places?
  • To what extent has the activation of Operation Safeguard and the rolling out of Rapid Deployment Cells helped to manage capacity pressures?
  • What are the implications of the rise in the prison population for the resources required to manage prisons safely and effectively?
  • What is HM's Prison and Probation Service's current capacity to manage overcrowding safely and effectively?
  • What is the impact of an ageing infrastructure and are Victorian prisons fit for purpose?

Written evidence

Send a written submission to the Future prison population and estate capacity inquiry.

Further information

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